Washington State and Oregon State are hurt by being located in the far NW part of the country, with no other peers located anywhere close to them other than the other state school. Travel is difficult to get to either one, and is costly. Ames and ISU is not even close to having to overcome those types of obstacles, ISU is within easy driving distance to Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Missouri, and the Kansas schools, plus EIU. Not talking 10 to 12 hours but 5 or 6 to most of those locations, while Washington St. and Oregon State cannot say the same.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
- Start date
So I think there could be more deep pockets out there possibly but with the last media deal the conference wanted as little of a streaming presence as possible. If that shifts then it possibly could open some thing up more but every single other thing in your post I totally agree with
Unless you’re talking about them using football as a loss leader, it’s not a question of having the money, it’s about whether there are enough viewers left after P2 get theirs (there are not)
there are not open windows. Any games they put on will compete for viewers with P2 games. It’s unlikely we pull enough viewers for the rate to be at P2 level.
Certainly not likely enough for a new entrant to pay that rate up front…unless they aren’t looking to make profit off the rights, but just sell Amazon prime or Apple TV
We could pull enough to cause some damage to P2, which is incentive for P2/P2 networks to expand and gut 3rd conference
I also think those with "deep pockets" dont want the entire media package, especially those that have little to no experience in broadcasting sports or college sports. In the future more may gain traction, and experience in the market, by sublicensing a small slate of games, to fill their wanted windows, and to gain some insight in how it will work for them.
If anything we know is things change and In a few years I am sure things will be different then today let alone a what the landscape was a few years ago when the current deals were done. But then again we may see the 2 major players continue to control everything and others happy to just buy the games they want too.
People can hate on ESPN and Fox, hell I am no fan of them myself, but I dont see a long line of companies or really anyone else beating down the door to outbid them.
For fun, I asked ChatGPT to read this entire thread and respond with the next post that would sum up the entire thread. And it holds true for almost EVERY longer thread about almost any topic on the site. Here it is. Enjoy!
"The funniest part of this thread is that if you go back a few hundred pages, you'll find people who were absolutely certain about things that never happened, people who were laughed at for predictions that eventually did happen, and people who were right for reasons that turned out to be completely wrong.
After 30,000+ posts, the one lesson this thread should have taught all of us is that nobody outside a handful of university presidents, conference commissioners, network executives, and lawyers actually knows where this ends.
Every "it's obvious" scenario eventually runs into some combination of money, politics, contracts, ego, television strategy, litigation, or a completely unexpected event.
We're all trying to solve a puzzle without knowing what pieces are actually on the table.
So maybe the strongest opinion anyone can have at this point is: "We'll see."
History says the people speaking with the most certainty today are usually the ones getting quoted for laughs a year from now."
The last sentence is pure GOLD.
"The funniest part of this thread is that if you go back a few hundred pages, you'll find people who were absolutely certain about things that never happened, people who were laughed at for predictions that eventually did happen, and people who were right for reasons that turned out to be completely wrong.
After 30,000+ posts, the one lesson this thread should have taught all of us is that nobody outside a handful of university presidents, conference commissioners, network executives, and lawyers actually knows where this ends.
Every "it's obvious" scenario eventually runs into some combination of money, politics, contracts, ego, television strategy, litigation, or a completely unexpected event.
We're all trying to solve a puzzle without knowing what pieces are actually on the table.
So maybe the strongest opinion anyone can have at this point is: "We'll see."
History says the people speaking with the most certainty today are usually the ones getting quoted for laughs a year from now."
The last sentence is pure GOLD.
Less than 50% of the country teams are located in the states of the B10 and SEC. College sports are a lot different from professional sports in that most teams only have fans in their region or those that have moved away. There are not open windows on network TV, but that is not a problem for a streaming service. Amazon or Apple wanting to get into college sports would find a receptive audience in both the ACC and B12.
Exactly this. Netflix decided they wanted 'events' and have stated they don't really want to be anybody's TV partner. Apple's deal with MLS has been a disaster but their small MLB package seems to work.
Amazon seems like the only legitimate option to take a full season package and I think they're going to want the brand power of the Big Ten and not just settle for any package they can find.
We're stuck with ESPN and FOX whether we want to be or not.
As previously posted, ESPN and Fox initially gained excessive control of the sport by reaching conference network deals with the SEC and B10 when cable subs were still growing.
Cable sub growth spurred the initial round of consolidation/realignment (e.g. Rutgers to B10).
Additional consolidation/realignment was driven by brand consolidation that could be accomplished on the relative cheap for the sole benefit of ESPN and Fox (e.g. PAC destroyed; Wazzu/ORSt relegated; B12 devalued by ESPN). And the end result is 4 grossly oversized P4 conferences with 3 of them being geographic clustereffs. It is absolutely inexcusable and disgusting that the sport is at this point while leaving millions/billions of dollars on the table. And now we got a 24 team playoff being proposed (with no P4 AQs) and there will no longer be any semblance of determining conference champs in the process.
And so here we are because Presidents/ADs caved to the whims of ESPN/Fox/Commish Puppets and unless conferences are geographically downsized (with brand dispersion) and CFP access is fairly provided to new entrants, there is not much incentive for new entrants to enter the CFB space. especially given the current long-term rights strangleholds that ESPN and Fox have on the SEC and B10.
Now if Cruz-Cantwell, gets passed and the SEC and B10 still refuse to play ball with full FBS pooling and refuse to realize the financial/competitive benefits of legacy downsized conferences, there may be a window of opportunity for a new entrant (likely CBS/TNT/Paramount) to legitimately/competitively enter the space with a B12/poached ACC package but only if they are provided access to CFP rights.
And if Cruz-Cantwell doesn't get passed, that will open the door for ESPN and Fox to conduct additional brand consolidation solely to their benefit and/or kick out existing B10 and SEC members and downsize to a 20-24 consortium as suggested by the ND AD and JP. So if you're in the shoes of Michigan State and TOE, you should be all in on Cruz-Cantwell to protect yourself from being relegated if ESPN and Fox continue to manipulate the sport to their benefit.
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Causal viewers don’t abide by state lines. Premium rates are from having games that draw casual fans
Streaming subscriptions don’t bring in the revenue for a 3rd conference anywhere close to P2. Again, it would have to be as a loss leader. What did Apple offer a PAC with UW and Oregon, 25 million/school for everything?
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This was done to protect lower tier ACC and B12 schools from being left out in a potential B12/ACC merger or the B12 poaching the ACC in 2031 when ACC exit fees get reduced and TV rights follow the school.
Hopefully the bill doesn't preclude the B12 from somehow rectifying the mistake of adding UCF and Houston.
Too bad for USF.
UCF and Houston weren't mistakes in any way. Largest public institution in Florida and an obscenely well funded, elite basketball program that is going to finish in the Top 4 or 5 in football.
USF, Memphis, Tulane, CCU and Boise all have some pretty powerful families behind them. So I don't expect this to hold up in a hypothetical world where this bill has a chance at passing.
According to this, the amendment was somehow a concession to the B10/Fox. Not sure how that helps the B10/Fox off the top of my head.
No it was more about the optics. They can now say they aren’t targeting the P2.
The best of rest conference can still be from schools leaving to join a new startup conference
This isn’t meaningful outside the few fixated on dropping UCF, which is probably more difficult now
If you would have attended the ISU game at Houston in 2024, even you would have realized that adding them was a mistake. It was an embarrassment for ISU and the B12 with that atmosphere and lack of fans. And Houston followed that up last season when they somehow got ranked in the Top 25 for the first time in years and host TCU on a nice day. The stadium was still half full.
And LOL at the prospect of USF, Memphis, Tulane, etc. somehow stonewalling the bill with their self-interests. If it doesn't get passed, it will primarily be due to political issues unrelated to the bill.
Cool... But my post was about the idea that there is a line of deep pockets waiting to pay 3x what the Big 12 and others are getting, that somehow for the last 2 decades these conferences have refused to take that big money in order to stay with their ESPN and Fox overlords.
It was about the fact that saying something is worth $X is all great and all, but in the end it is only worth what someone is willing to pay, and from what I have seen regardless of how much anyone believes college sports are worth, no one is or has been willing to pay more than ESPN or Fox for the majority of content. So I would say the value is precisely what is being paid.
10 years from now guesses are nothing more than that, guesses.
You’re living in the past.
Attendance has very little to do with realignment
Houston is in most top 25 for next season, after finishing in top 25 last season. And of course, elite basketball
Most important metric is TV ratings, but as expected, these ex G5 that kept up with P5 fairly well on pennies in G5, are good bets to keep up well with P2 on M2 revenue. Long term that’s needed for ratings
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For fun, I asked ChatGPT to read this entire thread and respond with the next post that would sum up the entire thread. And it holds true for almost EVERY longer thread about almost any topic on the site. Here it is. Enjoy!
"The funniest part of this thread is that if you go back a few hundred pages, you'll find people who were absolutely certain about things that never happened, people who were laughed at for predictions that eventually did happen, and people who were right for reasons that turned out to be completely wrong.
After 30,000+ posts, the one lesson this thread should have taught all of us is that nobody outside a handful of university presidents, conference commissioners, network executives, and lawyers actually knows where this ends.
Every "it's obvious" scenario eventually runs into some combination of money, politics, contracts, ego, television strategy, litigation, or a completely unexpected event.
We're all trying to solve a puzzle without knowing what pieces are actually on the table.
So maybe the strongest opinion anyone can have at this point is: "We'll see."
History says the people speaking with the most certainty today are usually the ones getting quoted for laughs a year from now."
The last sentence is pure GOLD.
“and never forget that until the day when God shall deign to reveal the future to man, all human wisdom is summed up in these two words,—'Wait and hope.'—Your friend, "Edmond Dantes, Count of Monte Cristo."
Houston doesn't do diddly squat for TV ratings on their own even if they are Top 25. Any favorable ratings for them is function of who they're playing or a time slot with minimal competition. Home attendance generally correlate with TV ratings.
It was a mistake for the B12 to add commuter schools like UCF and UH and it would be a far bigger mistake to add more like them with USF, Memphis, etc.
