Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[FinalFourCy]

This is a major flaw in their thinking.

People will tune out, and they will lose eyeballs from schools that they currently are paying very little to, but nominally allowing access to. When they start saying telling multiple fanbases that put 60,000 people in a stadium that they don't even get to try and compete, they will absolutely lose interest, viewership, and ad dollars. Oklahoma State fans aren't going to become OU fans. We aren't going to become Iowa fans. VA Tech fans aren't going to become UVA fans. So on and so forth. The schools they kick out of D1 aren't going to keep watching that level of the sport.

If it goes to 48, it won't stay there long, and it won't be equal revenue sharing with greater parity. The top 20ish schools will demand and receive the lion's share of the revenue and schools 21-48 would be there to just say "we're big time" while they win 3 games every year.

If this is all about maximizing brand matchups, it will get down to 16-20 schools in one conference that only play each other and a second league that's made up of basically the entire ACC and Big 12, plus the non-blue bloods of the SEC and Big 10. That would actually be ok with me.

Cutting the bottom 20-24 most popular schools is inherently favorable elasticity for P2 networks & P2. They won’t even lose all Ok St, ISU, KSU fans, given many will hate watch instate schools in P2

Even worse is they don’t need to cut them. Most fans will accept being treated like G5, content their school get access to CFP, but no longer really peers. Slowly that fact will become accepted, and the fervor from being left behind lessens until formal culling with very little risk.

This is the suffocation path we’re on, and why JP is talking about wishing they’d already try Armageddon step-change. The further we are removed from the P5 era, the less there’s any chance separation is attritional

 

[Al_4_State]

Cutting the bottom 20-24 most popular schools is inherently favorable elasticity for P2 networks & P2. They won’t even lose all Ok St, ISU, KSU fans, given many will hate watch instate schools in P2

Even worse is they don’t need to cut them. Most fans will accept being treated like G5, content their school get access to CFP, but no longer really peers. Slowly that fact will become accepted, and the fervor from being left behind lessens until formal culling with very little risk.

This is the suffocation path we’re on, and why JP is talking about wishing they’d already try Armageddon step-change. The further we are removed from the P5 era, the less there’s any chance separation is attritional

What stops this from going further?

Schools like Purdue and even Iowa are not peers to Ohio State and Texas. The reality of the CFB landscape is that schools 75-20 are pretty damn similar in terms of support, interest, etc. The financial advantage they currently have is simply from the largesse of blue bloods. It's only a matter of time before that ends.

 

[MountainManHawk]

Of course they are “considering it”

The main leverage non-P2 has is the headache of the other sports. The P2 is going to promote that isn’t a big issue, and hopefully get capitulation from everyone


And it probably isn’t insurmountable. The P2 can align with non-football schools. For example, invite top basketball only conferences like Big East to their basketball postseason

I hope they never break away but if they did, the TV execs would probably make sure that basketball March Madness still includes all of the schools.

And honestly for the same reason the TV execs are probably going to push to make sure that all conferences are included in a 24 team football playoff. When they say they want to “break away”, I think it really means make all of their own rules and maybe even only play regular season games only against each other. I think a football post season without at least some representation from other conferences would be a non-starter.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

What stops this from going further?

Schools like Purdue and even Iowa are not peers to Ohio State and Texas. The reality of the CFB landscape is that schools 75-20 are pretty damn similar in terms of support, interest, etc. The financial advantage they currently have is simply from the largesse of blue bloods. It's only a matter of time before that ends.

You could have said that about Indiana as well a year or two ago…

 

[BadBoi]

What stops this from going further?

Schools like Purdue and even Iowa are not peers to Ohio State and Texas. The reality of the CFB landscape is that schools 75-20 are pretty damn similar in terms of support, interest, etc. The financial advantage they currently have is simply from the largesse of blue bloods. It's only a matter of time before that ends.

Iowa is a top 20 revenue earner. They should have nothing to worry about. These conferences still need punching bags and time slots to fill. That's why we're not getting the invite. They already have punching bags.

 

[MountainManHawk]

What stops this from going further?

Schools like Purdue and even Iowa are not peers to Ohio State and Texas. The reality of the CFB landscape is that schools 75-20 are pretty damn similar in terms of support, interest, etc. The financial advantage they currently have is simply from the largesse of blue bloods. It's only a matter of time before that ends.

That is undoubtedly true. Even with equal sharing of the media deal, the revenue gap between Ohio State and Iowa is way, way bigger than the revenue gap between Iowa and ISU. And honestly the gap will probably continue to grow because OSU is going to push for the schools playing in CFP games to get a bigger cut of the CFP money. I’m not sure what is going to stop the top schools from having a roster that costs twice as much as the middle class schools can afford.

It’s going to be like MLB or soccer, except I’m worried there will inherently be a lot fewer upsets in football than you see in MLB because there isn’t as much randomness in football as there is in baseball. In MLB at least the Dodgers still lose around 60 games a year even after signing all the best players. If Ohio State stockpiles 105 of the biggest fastest players, it’s going to take a real David vs Goliath upset for the middle class schools to beat them. The only offset I can think of is playing time as some of the better players will want to make sure they get a starting spot even if it’s at a lower school.

 

[Al_4_State]

Iowa is a top 20 revenue earner. They should have nothing to worry about. These conferences still need punching bags and time slots to fill. That's why we're not getting the invite. They already have punching bags.

That's only because of Big 10 payouts, you realize that right?

If you take away TV money and compare other revenue sources, Iowa looks like an upper tier Big 12 school. Probably behind BYU and Tech.

 

[HouClone]

I don't think we are in if the breakaway is 48 teams. Even if the breakaway is 64 teams, we are on the bubble. Iowa is not a talent rich state and not very populous, we don't have the athletic prestige, and there is already one big college from Iowa in the breakaway. What we have going for us are large university, good academics, our fan support, and recent success. But I still don't think that will do it for 48 teams.

 

[Die4Cy]

The two major power conferences at this point have collapsed into little more than subsidiaries of television networks. Athletics is not even a major component in the calculation.

 

[Big_Sill]

Sorry -- Looks like I'm due for my quarterly sharing of my post from a long time ago:

I've shared this a few times over the years, but since OuT announced they were leaving the big 12, its been obvious to me that we are on a freight train express to: collective bargaining, employee status, breakaway from NCAA governance, salary cap, contracts, buyouts… so exactly the pro sports model.

Does the NFL have it? If yes, college football will have it eventually.

I've yet to see anything that changes my mind over the last 4 or 5 years, in fact nearly everything confirms it, including this weeks "news".

See you next quarter.

 

[BadBoi]

That's only because of Big 10 payouts, you realize that right?

If you take away TV money and compare other revenue sources, Iowa looks like an upper tier Big 12 school. Probably behind BYU and Tech.

I don't think you have a very good understanding of the college football landscape.

 

[BadBoi]

I don't think we are in if the breakaway is 48 teams. Even if the breakaway is 64 teams, we are on the bubble. Iowa is not a talent rich state and not very populous, we don't have the athletic prestige, and there is already one big college from Iowa in the breakaway. What we have going for us are large university, good academics, our fan support, and recent success. But I still don't think that will do it for 48 teams.

They don't need to add that many teams. They'll probably pick up 4-5 from the ACC and Notre Dame but that would be it.

 

[not-the-manager]

Iowa is a top 20 revenue earner. They should have nothing to worry about. These conferences still need punching bags and time slots to fill. That's why we're not getting the invite. They already have punching bags.

It's been made before, but I reject this argument. The big boys don't want to have to share any revenue with any school not bringing in a comparable percentage, period. They don't care about padding their win totals at the literal expense of having to share money. One, they're semi delusional, and schools like Texas and A&M believe they can be a dominant force even among the top ~30 earners. But also, it's not like there's not enough talent to go around between ~30 teams. They can have their cake and eat it too, and that's what's going to happen if something drastic doesn't happen, as many here are saying

 

[Al_4_State]

I don't think you have a very good understanding of the college football landscape.

I'd argue the same in your direction if you think Iowa is more like Ohio State than they are BYU or Texas Tech.

Iowa has less to worry about than we do, especially in the next 5 years. But they are far from safe, long term.

 

[Al_4_State]

It's been made before, but I reject this argument. The big boys don't want to have to share any revenue with any school not bringing in a comparable percentage, period. They don't care about padding their win totals at the literal expense of having to share money. One, they're semi delusional, and schools like Texas and A&M believe they can be a dominant force even among the top ~30 earners. But also, it's not like there's not enough talent to go around between ~30 teams. They can have their cake and eat it too, and that's what's going to happen if something drastic doesn't happen, as many here are saying

Exactly.

Schools like Iowa may not get left behind in a literal sense, but they're going to be very disadvantaged vis a vis their competition if they're allowed to stay in the highest level of the sport. Which is why I view Iowa State making a 48 team super league as a terrible spot. This is going to turn into a full on financial meritocracy eventually.

The only situation that won't feel utterly pointless for us is a fairly large tent (65-70ish schools), or the top tier being so small (16-20) that the second tier guarantees we're still playing regional peer schools in a high interest division (despite not being at the top division).

 

[BadBoi]

I'd argue the same in your direction if you think Iowa is more like Ohio State than they are BYU or Texas Tech.

Iowa has less to worry about than we do, especially in the next 5 years. But they are far from safe, long term.

I think your just wishfully thinking Iowa is danger in this potential shakeup. They're already in the fold with 7-8 schools that would be out before them.

 

[Al_4_State]

I think your just wishfully thinking Iowa is danger in this potential shakeup. They're already in the fold with 7-8 schools that would be out before them.

Tell me why schools grandfathered into the Big 10 and SEC, who don't command and create value at a high level, are safe? Do you think Iowa generates the same kind of value for the Big 10 TV package that Ohio State does?

The only schools that are safe are the big brands with large fanbases that get huge TV ratings. Large swaths of the Big 10 and SEC (including Iowa) are not this.

 

[Al_4_State]

Maybe a better way to put my point is this:

If Iowa State had joined the Big 10 100 years ago and Iowa joined the Big 8, would the fortunes of the Big 10 look any different today, and would they be looking to poach Iowa from the Big 12?

The answer to both questions is "no". And any school who that is true of (it ain't just Iowa) is not "safe" in the long term outlook of the sport.

The list of schools that will never have anything to worry about is pretty short. I'd put it at:
Notre Dame
Bama
Florida
LSU
Texas
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas A&M
USC
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State

 

[jbhtexas]

Tell me why schools grandfathered into the Big 10 and SEC, who don't command and create value at a high level, are safe? Do you think Iowa generates the same kind of value for the Big 10 TV package that Ohio State does?

The only schools that are safe are the big brands with large fanbases that get huge TV ratings. Large swaths of the Big 10 and SEC (including Iowa) are not this.

Agreed.

In my cynical view, it's already decided. The "P2" group is just waiting around to see if anything meaningful or consequential is likely to come out of Congress anytime soon that could disrupt what they want to do, and also letting the situation fester a little more to build up some more faux "frustration" to justify the breakaway. The media analysis to determine which schools maximize the revenue stream is done. Some existing SEC/Big Ten schools are going to be out. A few existing Big 12 and ACC schools might get in.

I'm with Pollard. Just get it over with so the "left-outs" can move on. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if some of the left-outs have already been strategizing behind the scenes.

 

[Gonzo]

Tell me why schools grandfathered into the Big 10 and SEC, who don't command and create value at a high level, are safe? Do you think Iowa generates the same kind of value for the Big 10 TV package that Ohio State does?

The only schools that are safe are the big brands with large fanbases that get huge TV ratings. Large swaths of the Big 10 and SEC (including Iowa) are not this.

Yeah but those big elite brands with huge TV ratings need conference foes to beat up on and keep them propped up. College regular season is 12 games. They need cannon fodder to get to those 11-12 wins every year. And while they may not be as big of brands or bring the TV viewership numbers, that fodder still brings a lot of value. This is why I don't think we'll see unequal sharing of media revenue anytime soon in the B1G. I think we will see unequal distribution of bowl/CFP revenues. So in that sense, the conference will engage in "unequal revenue sharing" just not of the media $$$ IMO.