Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[BadBoi]

Maybe a better way to put my point is this:

If Iowa State had joined the Big 10 100 years ago and Iowa joined the Big 8, would the fortunes of the Big 10 look any different today, and would they be looking to poach Iowa from the Big 12?

The answer to both questions is "no". And any school who that is true of (it ain't just Iowa) is not "safe" in the long term outlook of the sport.

The list of schools that will never have anything to worry about is pretty short. I'd put it at:
Notre Dame
Bama
Florida
LSU
Texas
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas A&M
USC
Michigan
Ohio State
Penn State

So since TV money is what drives the money for programs. Let me ask what you what Fox or ESPN would prefer to see. Your best 12 teams (6 games a week) over the discussed P2 alignment with 48 teams (24 games a week) They will take the 24>6 every time.

 

[RustShack]

The breakaway will lead to what’s happened to Nebraska. They will be cocky and know they will be relevant again soon, but after awhile… they just accept they aren’t good anymore.

 

[packattack425]

It is hard to believe if the Big 10/SEc break away happens, that all members of that league are getting invited to join that party. The Rutgers of the world are getting the boot.

 

[not-the-manager]

Would you say Clemson's brand power is the same today as it was between 2015-2020?

I don't work for ESPN so don't have exact ratings per game, nor did I decide to bury some games on ACCN, but I'd imagine the numbers are still respectable. I think you're conflating "How often do I hear or think about them?" with "What are they worth to TV networks?" I admit that they haven't been on my personal radar for years, since I live in the Midwest and have no connection to the ACC whatsoever. But TV decision-makers don't go in blind. They know who gets ratings even when they're down, and who has the money to fire their coach even if things get really bad

 

[FriendlySpartan]

You’re still looking at college athletics on May 19th, 2026 all wrong. Brand power would not diminish based on wins and losses. Brand power is history + fan support, i.e., ratings. Look at Nebraska. Look at the doldrums Harbaugh (Stalions) got Michigan out of. bama’s recent downturn made their fans more engaged and desperate. From a revenue standpoint there was no issue with the brands, the teams just weren’t winning. It’s only about money—more specifically, not having to share it. Would you rather finish 28th in the NFL lite, or be in the FCS or some equivalent? Besides, Ohio State thinks they can beat Georgia, bama, Texas, etc. every season, so why would they reject a league modeled after the NFL just because they’d play more good teams? Every roster that’s already outstanding would be even better, as there wouldn’t be any Iowa States stealing diamonds in the rough. So if you’re one of the select few, you figure you can only stand to gain from the culling



Indiana is still very, very much the exception, not the rule. That the stars aligned before all hell breaks loose is great for them. But, really, it doesn’t even matter if there are other dormant Indianas out there, because once the P2 start moving everyone will be left behind, even if they were one season away from breaking out

You realize during Michigans down years they were giving out free tickets when you bought a Coke because demand was so low. Winning 100% does matter

 

[not-the-manager]

You realize during Michigans down years they were giving out free tickets when you bought a Coke because demand was so low. Winning 100% does matter

So the University of Michigan Athletic Department had a revenue issue. Did it hurt Michigan's brand? I say no. I'd bet TV ratings were still okay. The way I'm using "brand," all you have to do is look at who's plastered on every ad the second they're decent again, that tells you who TV considers brands. Also the hypothetical we're discussing is an NFL lite, and the Jets and Browns don't get kicked out of the league just because attendance is down

 

[Al_4_State]

So since TV money is what drives the money for programs. Let me ask what you what Fox or ESPN would prefer to see. Your best 12 teams (6 games a week) over the discussed P2 alignment with 48 teams (24 games a week) They will take the 24>6 every time.

With that logic why wouldn’t they want 70 teams?

You seem hyperfixated on the one option that would be worst for ISU.

It’s not like they’re going to stop broadcasting games among the current Big 12 and ACC teams even if they’re formally left out.

So why is 48 a magic number? If you want lots of inventory, include every fan base that cares. If creating more brand games is all that matters, just cut the fat and have them play elsewhere. 48 arbitrarily relegates a lot of schools that have decent followings and better ratings than anything else they would air.

 

[MugNight]

Would you say Clemson's brand power is the same today as it was between 2015-2020?

See also: Florida State. They were a top brand and won 2 titles in 90s under Bowden and have National title and Heisman winner in past 15 years.

They also went undefeated and won their P4 Conference in 2023 and got left out of the 4 team CFP.

It’s also shocking how many people in the Florida Panhandle are Bama fans first.

 

[BadBoi]

With that logic why wouldn’t they want 70 teams?

They probably would, but it would lower the amount of marquee games and most importantly lower the amount of revenue per school. There's a sweet spot and I think the big ten and sec are close to it.

 

[Al_4_State]

They probably would, but it would lower the amount of marquee games and most importantly lower the amount of revenue per school. There's a sweet spot and I think the big ten and sec are close to it.

More marquee games will make more for the schools involved. Which is why I don’t think a “sweet spot” that includes a mix of blue bloods and not-blue bloods exists.

Either some outside entity puts a halt to this, or this shedding will continue until all that’s left on the top division are the current marquee brands.

There will still be football at all these schools, it’s just how it’s formally stratified.

 

[1SEIACLONE]

If the B10 and SEC break away, one would assume all schools in the conference now would go, so 34 schools right there, add in ND, Clemson, FSU, Miami and 10 other schools to get to 48 would not be that difficult, lots of schools like TT and BYU would jump at the chance to bring in more money, thinking that they will be able to hold their own if that happens. If the current conference contracts binds those schools to their current conference, then it could get interesting. Not sure what the value would be with only those 34 schools playing each other and only 17 games to televise each week.

If it does, the remaining schools have to hold the line and refuse to schedule those schools in anything, and just see if a Mens basketball tournament with all these 48 schools or fewer will draw ratings without the UCONNs and other none super league schools or not. Totally agree with Pollard here, if you go, its just not going to be for football but everything, and then the left over schools could reform some type of league where everyone has about the same amount of money, unlike today.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

So the University of Michigan Athletic Department had a revenue issue. Did it hurt Michigan's brand? I say no. I'd bet TV ratings were still okay. The way I'm using "brand," all you have to do is look at who's plastered on every ad the second they're decent again, that tells you who TV considers brands. Also the hypothetical we're discussing is an NFL lite, and the Jets and Browns don't get kicked out of the league just because attendance is down

When the brand gets hurt enough those ratings bad everything drop. Ratings follow ranked teams. When PSU fell apart this season there ratings the back half of the season cratered in comparison.

Winning absolutely matters, that’s how you build and maintain a brand. NFL lite doesn’t exist in college because it’s a fundamentally different game on many levels from recruiting to years starting, to the fact that it’s not the pinnacle etc.

Indiana set a bunch of records this year for ratings that haven’t been seen since pre Covid. People start to tune out when it’s the same teams doing the same thing over and over and with the expanded playoff (I hate it) the regular season games will be easier and easier to care less about for those brands.

 

[Kinch]

All is not rosy for two of the flagship schools in the Big 10. While it probably won’t pass, having at least one chamber talking about cutting $420 million is an eye opener.

House budget plan would slash funding for Michigan State, U-M by 62%

Michigan’s two largest universities could each face massive cuts to state funding.

www.wilx.com

 

[FriendlySpartan]

All is not rosy for two of the flagship schools in the Big 10. While it probably won’t pass, having at least one chamber talking about cutting $420 million is an eye opener.

House budget plan would slash funding for Michigan State, U-M by 62%

Michigan’s two largest universities could each face massive cuts to state funding.

www.wilx.com

Already had cuts a year or two ago to the tune of 200-300mil as well. Won’t cave this but the attack on the higher education is real.

Michigan will be able to weather that storm much more easily than MSU. Kinda shocked they are even attempting to cut the amount by a similar margin but again it’s dirty inner politics at play and just idiotic for the state to do

 

[Gonzo]

When the brand gets hurt enough those ratings bad everything drop. Ratings follow ranked teams. When PSU fell apart this season there ratings the back half of the season cratered in comparison.

Winning absolutely matters, that’s how you build and maintain a brand. NFL lite doesn’t exist in college because it’s a fundamentally different game on many levels from recruiting to years starting, to the fact that it’s not the pinnacle etc.

Indiana set a bunch of records this year for ratings that haven’t been seen since pre Covid. People start to tune out when it’s the same teams doing the same thing over and over and with the expanded playoff (I hate it) the regular season games will be easier and easier to care less about for those brands.

Not to mention, Clemson's recruiting has fallen off a cliff the past few years compared to where it was.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Not to mention, Clemson's recruiting has fallen off a cliff the past few years compared to where it was.

Football is cyclical, most people understand this but often it gets lost in these “super league” chats. Really we need some new terms as super league means about 99 different things depending on who you are talking to.

 

[cykadelic2]

So since TV money is what drives the money for programs. Let me ask what you what Fox or ESPN would prefer to see.

And here is the problem with all of this BS, actually there are two major problems:

1) Lack of a Fed Anti-Trust Exemption that would enable the NCAA/CSC to enforce eligibility rules, NIL regulations, etc.

2) ESPN and Fox dictating realignment and who gets paid premium revenues. Only sport that allows this is CFB and this obviously needs to change sooner than later. All other sports determine their own conferences/divisions and take their inventory to the networks for open bidding to optimize revenues. Not CFB where conferences are aligned for the sole benefit of ESPN and Fox. And unfortunately, Fed intervention is again the only solution starting with amending the SBA.

 

[CyCrazy]

Not to mention, Clemson's recruiting has fallen off a cliff the past few years compared to where it was.

Clemson had 9 players drafted this year.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Clemson had 9 players drafted this year.

Recurring is still tending down and finishing 8th in the ACC while getting 9 players drafted just shows how far the program is falling.

5/6 years ago they would have been a no brainer for the people that think an extra special super league would happen but now they are easily on the outside. Football is cyclical. Sadly if the playoffs really do go to 24 (so stupid) then no top team will ever really fall off unless their is a Penn state level collapse

 

[CyCrazy]

Recurring is still tending down and finishing 8th in the ACC while getting 9 players drafted just shows how far the program is falling.

5/6 years ago they would have been a no brainer for the people that think an extra special super league would happen but now they are easily on the outside. Football is cyclical. Sadly if the playoffs really do go to 24 (so stupid) then no top team will ever really fall off unless their is a Penn state level collapse

9 players drafted isn't falling off a cliff.