This is similar to in 2023 “if the BIG wanted Oregon and UW they would have taken them with USC/UCLA, they already have a TV deal now!”
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
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This is similar to in 2023 “if the BIG wanted Oregon and UW they would have taken them with USC/UCLA, they already have a TV deal now!”
This was the play when it was all about cramming the B1G Network onto cable packages. Now that cable is a shell of its former self, I don't think this is the case. It is more about big brands that actually draw ratings. Rutgers and Maryland wouldn't be getting an invite today.
Except for the part where the Big 10 has had multiple chances to add all of these Big 12 schools and passed.
The ACC hasn't been available since Maryland left. They've added what they want from the Big 12. Maybe something could change, but any current Big 12 school pining for an invite to those leagues is wasting their time.
It was all over when they told Utah 'Don't call us, we'll call you'.
That was the sign that there isn't another viable Big 12 team.
Which is why they got them for a major discount. If a team does that or goes full SMU and pays their own way then nothing is really off the table
Like Stanford isn’t a realistic option but they have the money that if they said “hey we will pay our way and don’t need any media dollars or minimal dollars” that shifts the math and changes things
Yup.
I'll admit, I was skeptical that they'd add Oregon and Washington, but in hindsight it's pretty clear they were pulling Jenga pieces out of the Pac 12 to see if the tower would topple, and then grab the chunks they wanted. Colorado joining the Big 12 was exactly what they were hoping would happen.
The Big 12 has had the pieces pulled out so many times that I just don't think the same factors are in play.
Maybe. But growing provider subscriptions will replace cable carriage fees.
ESPN, Amazon, Paramount+, Peacock, etc can use Big10 live sporting events as a hook to attract casual sports fans in large metro areas.
And it's not like UVA, UNC, etc have proven to get large TV ratings. It's about growing awareness/affinity for the 5-10M people in those states.
You mean, just like they passed on a chance to add UW and Oregon in 2022, only to later add.
Not adding certain schools in 2023 does not mean those schools won’t be added later. That’s rather poor reasoning. The BIG passed on NU for decades, for example
Most feel the primary reason more PAC wasn’t added in 2022/23 is that the BIG first needs to see what they can get elsewhere. If the SEC takes a big haul of those other targets,, several Big 12 schools are in play for BIG (despite not adding them during several other chances).
I disagree. They know who they want, and they know who they're getting from the ACC. They aren't adding schools just to reach an arbitrary number, they're adding schools that can increase their bottom line. If a Big 12 school could do that, they would be there, regardless of who's coming from the ACC because it's not about a certain round number, it's about making money.
I highly doubt any Big 12 schools are getting in unless they SMU it, and at that point what's the point?
You seem hooked on this UW/Oregon thing. No remaining big 12 team is on a level with those teams.
It’s also about taking more of the macros, like CFP
The P2 are drawn to the benefits of a superleague in which they’ve monopolized all the revenue capacity of college athletics, but desire the perception/fantasy of it being an open market P4
“It’s not a superleague, we (P2) are just acting together to make nearly all the revenue, have nearly all the postseason, all the TV slots we want, the only votes/say that matters. But it’s not a superleague”
It’s just the most recent example of the flaw to your wishful thinking
Try not to think of this as teams, but rather franchises. There are investors in suitable markets within Big 12 in which the BIG will consider a franchise, but first they need to open it up to all investors
They know who is at the top of their list, for sure. They don’t know who they’ll get. Not with enough certainty to add conditional schools
We do know if Big 12 schools were contemporaneously must-takes, they would have been invited. That’s true.
That leaves a lot of possibilities given conditional takes and future desirability
And the list does change based on industry changes.
This is not a prediction Big 12 loses schools, although it’s a decent possibility. Certainly not one ruled out with such weak logic as “if they wanted them they’d already take them”
The NFL deal is likely to impact realignment. I’ve wondered if Fox’s threats against SBA (streaming) is to get Amazon to buy them
awfulannouncing.com
Finally, Marchand goes to Fox. The network’s CEO Lachlan Murdoch has recently backpedaled on his prior excitementabout renewing its NFL deal early, saying publicly he believes Fox is already paying market price for the league. Moreover, Fox and the Murdoch media empire have been one of the primary voices pushing the narrative that taking NFL games off of broadcast television may jeopardize the NFL’s antitrust exemption. Not coincidentally, the Justice Department recently opened an investigation into that very matter.
Then there’s the fact that Fox is a much smaller company than the other four NFL broadcast partners, and thus less equipped to stomach a massive increase in rights fees, and the network might be more willing to hold out until 2029-30.
“Fox is sitting there and they do not want to spend that money,” Marchand said. “You look at their market cap, it doesn’t really make sense for them to spend too much more money.”
The sense that I’m getting is that Fox is willing to say, ‘We have you under contract through the out after the ’29-30 season, who knows what’s going to happen with media over the next four years, we’re willing to roll the dice. And we think when it comes time to renegotiate in ’29-30, are we going to merge with somebody? Is somebody going to buy us? Or are you really going to be willing to test the antitrust exemptions that are coming from Congress and take our package and possibly give it to a streamer or allow streamers to get more?'” Ourand added.
Sports media analysts skeptical NFL will secure new TV deals before 2029-30 opt-outs
Sports media reporters Andrew Marchand and John Ourand are skeptical the NFL will strike new TV deals before its 2029-30 opt-out.
awfulannouncing.com
Finally, Marchand goes to Fox. The network’s CEO Lachlan Murdoch has recently backpedaled on his prior excitementabout renewing its NFL deal early, saying publicly he believes Fox is already paying market price for the league. Moreover, Fox and the Murdoch media empire have been one of the primary voices pushing the narrative that taking NFL games off of broadcast television may jeopardize the NFL’s antitrust exemption. Not coincidentally, the Justice Department recently opened an investigation into that very matter.
Then there’s the fact that Fox is a much smaller company than the other four NFL broadcast partners, and thus less equipped to stomach a massive increase in rights fees, and the network might be more willing to hold out until 2029-30.
“Fox is sitting there and they do not want to spend that money,” Marchand said. “You look at their market cap, it doesn’t really make sense for them to spend too much more money.”
The sense that I’m getting is that Fox is willing to say, ‘We have you under contract through the out after the ’29-30 season, who knows what’s going to happen with media over the next four years, we’re willing to roll the dice. And we think when it comes time to renegotiate in ’29-30, are we going to merge with somebody? Is somebody going to buy us? Or are you really going to be willing to test the antitrust exemptions that are coming from Congress and take our package and possibly give it to a streamer or allow streamers to get more?'” Ourand added.
It's this simple:
If there was a school that wasn't protected by a GOR that could make them money, why would they pass on more money?
Every move they've ever made is about maximizing revenue and making more per member. If any of the current Big 12 schools would accomplish that, they would have been invited to the Big 10 in 2021 or 2023.
The only way they would add a current Big 12 school in 2030 is if something happened between now and then to make any of these schools a long term valuable TV property.
I agree with this to a point.
But if you look at it like picking teams on a school yard. The best kickball player is picked first, eventually you get to the kid that cant kick.
Eventually, the lower schools become the best available options, if expanding is the goal.
In reality, a school like UU, may have been passed on multiple times, but in the next round they may be the best option left. Now if taking any school does not meet the needs, add a benefit, for what they are looking for, then that will end the expansion. No one is going to take teams for the sake of adding teams, their has to be some benefit, gaining media market, gaining media pay, gaining needed travel partners, gaining a rival for a wanted team etc.
In the next round we really dont know yet what might be considered valuable. We have an idea, but as discussed media markets are becoming less valuable and other aspects are becoming more valuable, like overall fanbases etc. This means a school passed on in previous rounds may have more value now, or they may just be the most valuable of those left.
I probably said this hundreds of pages ago, but I’m at a point where I'm OK with the Big 10 and SEC just going off and doing their own thing and leaving everyone else alone.
The thing is this argument is base around the need for constant expansion which I don’t think exists anymore. If carriage fees are no longer a major factor then there is zero need for future expansion unless a school is willing to join the P2 for a faction of the price.
Speaking for the big ten OSU got a 91 mil payout due to winning the previous football natty, the lowest payouts for full tier members were 79mil and up. Those numbers will continue to increase till the end of the media deal. At that point any school added needs to bring in over 100 mil of added value or else it’s just another school in the pot. Outside of ND no school has that value that isn’t in the P2.
That’s why I can see expansion being put in pause for many years
I agree, to a point. But no one knows what will be pushing expansion in 5 or 10 years. Does a new system come to play, that causes something to be of value in a different way. Does the TV/Streaming system change in a way that adds value to a school that currently doesnt have that value because of how the system/contracts are done.
Does a school like Stanford get a boost as a package deal with ND?
Does a school take a discounted rate, ala SMU, Oregon, Wash etc, that is enough to get in the door?
Does some other player come in wanting a certain number of teams, or a certain team makeup for a large payout?
Does someone want a certain inventory, that includes football, basketball etc, so adding the Dukes or UNCs becomes more valuable?
I am not saying any of these things matter, or will matter, all I am saying is we dont really know what the system will be a decade from now, we dont know how values may change both up and down, we dont know what might be the major value player.
A decade ago, cable carriage fees were the value, for B1G, now not as much. A decade agon no one thought the Pac would fall and all those teams be added to 3 other conferences. A decade ago the NIL, profit share, and transfer portal were not a thing. A decade ago a team like Indiana not only winning the B1G but also having one of the top earning coaches, and one of the highest valued teams was not even a pipe dream. A decade ago, the landscape was totally different, and a decade from now I am guessing it will be a lot different from what it is today.
I agree in the current system there are few if any that add anything to the value for the B1G or SEC, but that doenst mean a team like UU or TT etc could rattle off several years of top finishes, and top valued teams etc. that drastically increases their value, as far as what is considered valuable today.
Then who knows the entire system could implode, someone like cykadelic could get their wish, the government could step in, the system could collapse on its own weight, some other major event or some major investor, could come in and force change. With private equity trying to get involved, a lot of people could get their hands involved and really all bets are off at that point.
