Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[isucy86]

IMO the need for ND to join a conference will arise when a 9-3 Iowa, USC, Tennessee, UF get in before a 10-2 Notre Dame because of Big 10/SEC SOS bias.

But I don't think it's automatic that ND joins Big 10. Geographically it makes sense. But if schools like UVA & UNC join SEC- maybe that eases the path for ND. And might have some recruiting benefits.

 

[isucy86]

Its very simple, its not SEC and B10 calling the shots its ESPN and FOX sports, and both of those networks would want ND to be part of a playoff. Having them into the playoff means more people watching than them sitting at home. The B10 and SEC are nothing but the face of it, the two networks, supplying the money are the power behind this whole thing and always has been.

ESPN & FOX's ability to distribute games nationally is not unique. NBC, CBS, Apple, Netflix and Amazon could all distribute the inventory and have the $.

ESPN/FOX hold leadership spots because University Presidents allow it based on input from their AD's. Look how easily the SEC dropped long-time TV partner CBS.

FOX has a tighter control on Big 10, but they don't have the same appetite for investment.

 

[CycloneT]

Notre Dame’s TV contract payout is not guaranteed either. It’s based off viewership. It’s why they wanted the guaranteed games with FSU Miami and Clemson. If those schools jump their Tv contract may force them to jump as well

 

[cykadelic2]

ESPN/FOX hold leadership spots because University Presidents allow it based on input from their AD's. Look how easily the SEC dropped long-time TV partner CBS.

It's not based on input from ADs, it is based on input from the B10 and SEC Commissioners.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

IMO the need for ND to join a conference will arise when a 9-3 Iowa, USC, Tennessee, UF get in before a 10-2 Notre Dame because of Big 10/SEC SOS bias.

But I don't think it's automatic that ND joins Big 10. Geographically it makes sense. But if schools like UVA & UNC join SEC- maybe that eases the path for ND. And might have some recruiting benefits.

Yeah you’re forgetting the ND bias as well which is significantly higher than the teams you mentioned. Iowa gets the opposite of bias due to their offense being non existent

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Notre Dame’s TV contract payout is not guaranteed either. It’s based off viewership. It’s why they wanted the guaranteed games with FSU Miami and Clemson. If those schools jump their Tv contract may force them to jump as well

Would you care to put a source to that because I have never heard such a thing.

Maybe they get an additional bonus or something but they won’t get a penality and even then it’s in NBC’s interest to get the games as much viewership as possibly

 

[ClonerJams]

Notre Dame got to keep all that playoff money themselves. Not saying they won't join the big 10, the timing just seems odd.

 

[Gonzo]

Notre Dame’s TV contract payout is not guaranteed either. It’s based off viewership. It’s why they wanted the guaranteed games with FSU Miami and Clemson. If those schools jump their Tv contract may force them to jump as well

Where'd you see that? I've never heard anything like that related to the $50 mill NBC deal.

 

[isucy86]

Yeah you’re forgetting the ND bias as well which is significantly higher than the teams you mentioned. Iowa gets the opposite of bias due to their offense being non existent

The difference is Big 10 & SEC make incremental money for every team in the CFP. So they'll continue to push/politic/spin.

Notre Dame is a big, big dog but they don't have 15+ other schools pushing their cause. Not even from their ACC brethren.

 

[isucy86]

It's not based on input from ADs, it is based on input from the B10 and SEC Commissioners.

Commissioners work at will of university Presidents. That's why prior Big 10 Commissioner was pushed out.

A Commissioners power is only as strong as their support

 

[1SEIACLONE]

ESPN & FOX's ability to distribute games nationally is not unique. NBC, CBS, Apple, Netflix and Amazon could all distribute the inventory and have the $.

ESPN/FOX hold leadership spots because University Presidents allow it based on input from their AD's. Look how easily the SEC dropped long-time TV partner CBS.

FOX has a tighter control on Big 10, but they don't have the same appetite for investment.

Fox owns a controlling interest in BTN, they are calling the shots, much like ESPN controls both the SEC and ACC networks. Remember the Golden Rule, those with the Gold, makes the rules. You want more money for your programs here is what you are going to do, if not, then you don't get more. Apple, Netflix and every other streaming service right now is trying to get some scraps and paying for it. That might change when the contracts are renewed but I doubt it when both Fox and ESPN own controlling interest in each of the conference networks.

 

[CycloneT]

Would you care to put a source to that because I have never heard such a thing.

Maybe they get an additional bonus or something but they won’t get a penality and even then it’s in NBC’s interest to get the games as much viewership as possibly

Where'd you see that? I've never heard anything like that related to the $50 mill NBC deal.

It was on some podcast when the new ACC scheduling agreement was announced. I think it was to give NBC some protection if Notre Dame had a down year or schedule quality dropped. Could have it somewhat wrong

 

[isucy86]

Fox owns a controlling interest in BTN, they are calling the shots, much like ESPN controls both the SEC and ACC networks. Remember the Golden Rule, those with the Gold, makes the rules. You want more money for your programs here is what you are going to do, if not, then you don't get more. Apple, Netflix and every other streaming service right now is trying to get some scraps and paying for it. That might change when the contracts are renewed but I doubt it when both Fox and ESPN own controlling interest in each of the conference networks.

Not disputing FOX has a special place. But only because the schools contractually gave them the power.

Who's the signator on the GOR? Who signs the media rights K?

ESPN holding power is their contract. Pretty good chance the linear SECN won't exist after this contract. So ESPN will have some incumbent advantage. But it won't be linear distribution like today. Money will matter.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

It was on some podcast when the new ACC scheduling agreement was announced. I think it was to give NBC some protection if Notre Dame had a down year or schedule quality dropped. Could have it somewhat wrong

Yeah I’ve never heard of this but is an interesting concept in theory

 

[1SEIACLONE]

Not disputing FOX has a special place. But only because the schools contractually gave them the power.

Who's the signator on the GOR? Who signs the media rights K?

ESPN holding power is their contract. Pretty good chance the linear SECN won't exist after this contract. So ESPN will have some incumbent advantage. But it won't be linear distribution like today. Money will matter.

Why does its matter who signed off on the deal, in what world do you see Fox not getting the B10 contract going forward when they own BTN? Now them may move some of the off to streaming services just like they do now, but when they own the network they are going to have the say. ESPN will do the same, unless one of the cable companies is willing to pony up the dough to set up a network then it's not happening.

 

[cykadelic2]

Commissioners work at will of university Presidents. That's why prior Big 10 Commissioner was pushed out.

A Commissioners power is only as strong as their support

Yeah right. B10 Presidents agreed to expansion with PAC schools (at Fox's request; Warren was Fox's puppet) when the majority of B10 ADs/HCs were supposedly against it.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Would you care to put a source to that because I have never heard such a thing.

Maybe they get an additional bonus or something but they won’t get a penality and even then it’s in NBC’s interest to get the games as much viewership as possibly

Fluguar talked about it in one of his podcasts and there was other scuttlebutt.

There’s not much transparency in any of these TV deals, as we learned with the ACC. Schools had trouble knowing exactly what the terms are, in that case

I’d bet on the networks having the upper hand and putting in escape clauses and look-ins. So it’s reasonable that NBC wouldn’t just write ND a P2 level check without P2 level scheduling

It being such a short deal also has intrigue

IMO NBC isn’t necessarily forcing ND to the BIG, but they’re not adversarial to it

 

[FinalFourCy]

Fox owns a controlling interest in BTN, they are calling the shots, much like ESPN controls both the SEC and ACC networks. Remember the Golden Rule, those with the Gold, makes the rules. You want more money for your programs here is what you are going to do, if not, then you don't get more. Apple, Netflix and every other streaming service right now is trying to get some scraps and paying for it. That might change when the contracts are renewed but I doubt it when both Fox and ESPN own controlling interest in each of the conference networks.

Huge difference in that ESPN is just renting, Fox has equity

ESPN has built up the SeC so much that it needs the SEC more than the SEC needs them. That conference network isn’t worth much if the SEC sells its T3 elsewhere (even more true with T1/T2).

Since they’ve made things a P2, If Fox, NBC, CBS renew on BIG, espn will have a lot of bandwidth to fill with just the SEC as the only option. Likely part of why the SeC is willing to take FSU, Clemson etc

 

[SCNCY]

Fluguar talked about it in one of his podcasts and there was other scuttlebutt.

There’s not much transparency in any of these TV deals, as we learned with the ACC. Schools had trouble knowing exactly what the terms are, in that case

I’d bet on the networks having the upper hand and putting in escape clauses and look-ins. So it’s reasonable that NBC wouldn’t just write ND a P2 level check without P2 level scheduling

It being such a short deal also has intrigue

IMO NBC isn’t necessarily forcing ND to the BIG, but they’re not adversarial to it

Now that NBC has one game a week from the Big10, they probably would rather ND join the Big 10. That way they get to dump NDs weaker opponents and get to pick week to week large matchups.

 

[FinalFourCy]

Now that NBC has one game a week from the Big10, they probably would rather ND join the Big 10. That way they get to dump NDs weaker opponents and get to pick week to week large matchups.

Agree

Some say they’re trying not to make either side upset, but imo they can play some hardball with ND. And would, if the BIG allows them to keep their ND home game package

ND needs/wants premium OTA. If not with NBC because NBC mandates ND join BIG, then ND could only get it through ABC. But Disney is full with SEC and ACC, unless…