Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

Gonzo

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Because there are 14 schools? 50mil (the rough estimate of the 5 games based on NBC figures) divided by 14 is about 3.5 mil per school?
So you're the ACC would make $20 mill more per year with ND pulling out of their arrangement than they make with the arrangement in tact?
 

isucy86

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I feel like what gets lost with the ND discussion is the potential that, if ever forced to join a conference, ND just joins the ACC and keeps that conference a float. The current ACC with ND would probably get a deal similar to B1G and SEC.
Notre Dame is a big dog. But dividing up their current value above the ACC average payout of $37M is maybe $5-7M incremental when divided between 14 other teams.

That's closer to Big12 money than Big10 or SEC money.
 

FriendlySpartan

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So you're the ACC would make $20 mill more per year with ND pulling out of their arrangement than they make with the arrangement in tact?
Nope they would make less. We can agree to disagree on this because ND is staying independent so all this is moot.
 

timinatoria

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How many of those games are on NBC as part of ND's deal? The ACC doesn't get any of that $$$.
This is REALLY going to piss off ACC schools now with Notre Dame’s new contract.

When Florida State plays at Notre Dame, ND will be making between $10-$11 million in TV money. When ND plays at FSU, Florida state will make around $3 million in TV money.

ACC teams have got to be livid watching themselves fall further and further behind the SEC, Big Ten AND Notre Dame, who is technically part of their conference.
 

FriendlySpartan

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This is REALLY going to piss off ACC schools now with Notre Dame’s new contract.

When Florida State plays at Notre Dame, ND will be making between $10-$11 million in TV money. When ND plays at FSU, Florida state will make around $3 million in TV money.

ACC teams have got to be livid watching themselves fall further and further behind the SEC, Big Ten AND Notre Dame, who is technically part of their conference.
They might be livid but they put themselves in this situation just like the PAC did. Even if they went out to market right now I don’t know how much more they would get.
 

timinatoria

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Got to love those unnamed sources, have no idea how credible that is. They still have a contract for 5 games. You cant just walk away from that.
I would think she would have good info. She’s one of the lead CFB reporters for ESPN(not just one of the hack Twitter rumor guys) and ESPN knows exactly what’s in that ACC-Notre Dame contract.

It also doesn’t surprise me that ND wouldn’t sign a GOR for their football team.
 

timinatoria

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They might be livid but they put themselves in this situation just like the PAC did. Even if they went out to market right now I don’t know how much more they would get.
I guess what I’m saying is when that GOR is up the ‘desireable’ ACC teams (FSU, Miami, N Carolina, Clemson) will get stuck in the door trying to be the first one out of the room.
 
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isucy86

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They can offer real numbers becuase they are currently in negotiations, now will those numbers be good? Probably not but they will be real whereas the Big12 can offer projections.

The big ten is taking so long becuase right as the deal was locked up they added the two Cali schools which took everything back to the drawing board.

I don’t think the conferences will combine even if it is in their best interest. Although the big 12 could try and steal teams
The question is when can the Big12 begin negotiations?
  • Is the Big12 deal similar to Pac12 and ESPN & Fox have an exclusive window around July 1, 2023?
  • The Pac12 was able to move up that window a few days when USC & UCLA left. Can the Big12 move up ESPN & Fox's exclusive window? And by how much?
As media partners with the Big12, even if there are contract limitations, it might be in ESPN & Fox's best interest to move that exclusive window this fall or early 2023.

Who knows, ESPN and/or Fox may have no interest in a future Big12 deal.

Or if they are interested in a new Big12 media deal, they might want the financials negotiated in the next year vs. summer 2024.

With Cincy, Houston, UCF and BYU joining Big12 and OU/UT leaving- there could be reasons for Big12 and Fox/ESPN to negotiate early. After all, I'm sure ESPN wants OU/UT in SEC before the 2025 football season.
 
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FriendlySpartan

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I guess what I’m saying is when that GOR is up the ‘desireable’ ACC teams (FSU, Miami, N Carolina, Clemson) will get stuck in the door trying to be the first one out of the room.
Oh I 100% agree but that is 12 years away. Who knows what the landscape will look like then. 12 years ago Clemson was a joke of a program and now they are the crown jewel of a conference. Projecting that far ahead is a fools errand, although it is fun to speculate
 

Gonzo

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The question is when can the Big12 begin negotiations?
  • Is the Big12 deal similar to Pac12 and ESPN & Fox have an exclusive window around July 1, 2023?
  • The Pac12 was able to move up that window a few days when USC & UCLA left. Can the Big12 move up ESPN & Fox's exclusive window? And by how much?
As media partners with the Big12, even if there are contract limitations, it might be in ESPN & Fox's best interest to move that exclusive window this fall or early 2023.

Who knows, ESPN and/or Fox may have no interest in a future Big12 deal.

Or if they are interested in a new Big12 media deal, they might want the financial negotiated in the next year vs. summer 2024.

With Cincy, Houston, UCF and BYU joining Big12 and OU/UT leaving- there could be reasons for Big12 and Fox/ESPN to negotiate early. After all, I'm sure ESPN wants OU/UT in SEC before the 2025 football season.
If ESPN and the B1G really have broken up I'd be surprised if ESPN isn't very interested in the Big 12 to go along with the SEC.
 

FriendlySpartan

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The question is when can the Big12 begin negotiations?
  • Is the Big12 deal similar to Pac12 and ESPN & Fox have an exclusive window around July 1, 2023?
  • The Pac12 was able to move up that window a few days when USC & UCLA left. Can the Big12 move up ESPN & Fox's exclusive window? And by how much?
As media partners with the Big12, even if there are contract limitations, it might be in ESPN & Fox's best interest to move that exclusive window this fall or early 2023.

Who knows, ESPN and/or Fox may have no interest in a future Big12 deal.

Or if they are interested in a new Big12 media deal, they might want the financial negotiated in the next year vs. summer 2024.

With Cincy, Houston, UCF and BYU joining Big12 and OU/UT leaving- there could be reasons for Big12 and Fox/ESPN to negotiate early. After all, I'm sure ESPN wants OU/UT in SEC before the 2025 football season.
I’m not sure the value of negotiating early but I believe the Big12 has a simple restricted window like the Big ten and PAC. Could be wrong as you all would know more about the Big12 then I do.
 

isucy86

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If ESPN and the B1G really have broken up I'd be surprised if ESPN isn't very interested in the Big 12 to go along with the SEC.
ESPN also has ACC. So not sure how much additional inventory they need for ABC, ESPN and ESPN2.
 

cyIclSoneU

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ESPN owns all SEC and ACC rights. In a normal week you will have 7 SEC games and 6 ACC (accounting for byes). That's 13 games.

ABC, ESPN, 2, U, SECN, and ACCN have 18 windows. And they also have American, Sun Belt, etc. games to show.

But they probably wanna put at least some SEC and ACC content on ESPN+ as well.

So it seems to me like ESPN has room for one more power conference, but maybe not two, unless at least one of the Pac-12 or Big 12 was happy with a large chunk of content going on ESPN+.

It seems more likely to me that ESPN gets the Pac-12 and suddenly its number of windows goes up by adding After Dark content. Then FOX signs up the Big 12 and puts 3 games a week on FOX/FS1 with the remaining games going elsewhere (Amazon? Maybe one on CBS? Maybe a small slice to ESPN, including ESPN+?).
 
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timinatoria

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The question is when can the Big12 begin negotiations?
  • Is the Big12 deal similar to Pac12 and ESPN & Fox have an exclusive window around July 1, 2023?
  • The Pac12 was able to move up that window a few days when USC & UCLA left. Can the Big12 move up ESPN & Fox's exclusive window? And by how much?
As media partners with the Big12, even if there are contract limitations, it might be in ESPN & Fox's best interest to move that exclusive window this fall or early 2023.

Who knows, ESPN and/or Fox may have no interest in a future Big12 deal.

Or if they are interested in a new Big12 media deal, they might want the financials negotiated in the next year vs. summer 2024.

With Cincy, Houston, UCF and BYU joining Big12 and OU/UT leaving- there could be reasons for Big12 and Fox/ESPN to negotiate early. After all, I'm sure ESPN wants OU/UT in SEC before the 2025 football season.
If I’m ESPN I would want to get any data I could for the new additions to the conference and what the viewership is in the Big 12.

If they think it will be better than most people think they should try to do a deal early. If they don’t think it will do great numbers they might wait so they don’t over pay.

No idea how that will play out but it will be interesting.
 

knowlesjam

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If ESPN and the B1G really have broken up I'd be surprised if ESPN isn't very interested in the Big 12 to go along with the SEC.
Spot on...breaking OuT a year early may result in some additional ESPN sugar for the Big 12..or not. It will be interesting to see which way this turns out.
 

isucy86

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ESPN owns all SEC and ACC rights. In a normal week you will have 7 SEC games and 6 ACC (accounting for byes). That's 13 games.

ABC, ESPN, 2, U, SECN, and ACCN have 18 windows. And they also have American, Sun Belt, etc. games to show.

But they probably wanna put at least some SEC and ACC content on ESPN+ as well.

So it seems to me like ESPN has room for one more power conference, but maybe not two, unless at least one of the Pac-12 or Big 12 was happy with a large chunk of content going on ESPN+.

It seems more likely to me that ESPN gets the Pac-12 and suddenly its number of windows goes up by adding After Dark content. Then FOX signs up the Big 12 and puts 3 games a week on FOX/FS1 with the remaining games going elsewhere (Amazon? Maybe one on CBS? Maybe a small slice to ESPN, including ESPN+?).
With cord cutting, what is the long term future of SECN and ACCN as linear channels?

They could end up on ESPN+ or even Disney+ platform.
 

FriendlySpartan

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With cord cutting, what is the long term future of SECN and ACCN as linear channels?

They could end up on ESPN+ or even Disney+ platform.
I believe espn owns both so it would make a lot of sense to put them on espn+ unless they are getting carrier fees for them. Doubt they would be on Disney plus but you never know.
 

SEIOWA CLONE

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The media value of ND's MBB and Olympic sports isn't going to amount to much.

With the ND five-game agreement in place the ACC's media rights payout to full members is a little over $30 mill. So I doubt ND would be on the hook for $55 mill/year itself if it left, lol.
What the ACC is paying out does not matter, its what the value that NBC is paying them. If ND is only worth 55 million a year to the ACC and they are one of their flagship schools, but they are somehow worth north of $125 million and more to B10? Is that what you are trying to say here.

You said earlier that people break contracts all the time, now think about that. You are the ACC, you have seen what has happened to the B12, and you are redoing your contract, including a new network. You really think that these schools are agreeing to a handshake deal. Some of the best lawyers money can buy went over those GOR's and trying to make sure that no school could break them. If they could, Florida St, Clemson and a few others would be playing in another league right now.