I put 7-8. Hoping on 8. I think our defense is good enough. Our offense needs to really step up come conference play.
Poll: Conference Wins
- Thread starter ClonesFTW
- Start date
I don't know. Creighton is ranked 58th in the net, which would put them 7th in the conference right behind TCU. Don't get me wrong, that was a good win on the road, but the Big XII is just that tough this year.
The reality is we do not know how good the Big12 is. Sure, the bottom is better than other conferences, but how good the top is remains to be seen. The Big12 has only played two games against the top ten in Net and has won one and is 6-4 against the top 25 in Net. Take away Baylor and Iowa State and the rest of the league is 3-4 against the top 25. I have them at 11 wins, 8-1 at home and 3-6 on the road.
That is a bad take.
We know the Big 12 is elite and the best conference. That is not going to change. Particularly in terms of the most difficult to get wins. That is why 7 wins may be enough to get in, but 8 is a lock.
A round-robin in which there are no sure games, no weak teams, is the hardest to make the tournament. Far harder than conferences with uneven schedules and top heavy.
And you won't find a conference with better than 20% of teams at KU and BU level. You won't find a conference with a higher percentage of its teams in the top-40.
NET is pretty weak right now.
Why is their ranking so high? Half the league doesn’t have a top 50 win, so we actually do not know how good or bad they are. Your take is bad when you say for sure that the conference is elite. You do not know that, and using 10-12 games of analytics to make arguments is not sound.
The ranking is so high because it has done well enough compared to the other leagues. 20% of the conference is viewed as elite. 40%-50% as very good. 100% as capable of being a tournament team, if not for postseason bans
Basic math also favors it. We also know it is the only round robin in which all games played will not feature a bad team, and it will have the highest percentage of games be top-30 matchups. It is by far the most challenging.
It’s inconsistent to say we don’t know how good the Big 12 is. Yes, no one can predict the future. But based on 12 games, it will be very unlikely it finishes worse than 2nd. You won’t find any expert that would make such an argument. We know it is very good. We know it is the biggest challenge in terms of getting wins if you’re a top-30 to 40 team.
My concern about conference play is injuries. We know the league is a gauntlet but I’d say anywhere from 7 to 11 is realistic if we stay healthy. But as frontloaded as the schedule is, a relatively poor start plus injuries affecting us down the home stretch might cause us to miss the tournament. Got to stay healthy to bank some wins in the second half of the season.
Defense and effort will have to carry us at times, but it is encouraging to me that the offense has shown the most pop against the best teams, and that will be needed against a murderer's row of great defenses.
How do we have 25 ‘fans’ that voted for 5-6 wins? You 25 need to quit the CF forums, and run down to your nearest Walmart and get a hok tshirt (if you don’t have one already). We don’t need ya!
6-12, B12 is brutal, please surprise me.
Before the season I was hoping for double digit wins...
Before the season I was hoping for double digit wins...
I agree. I misread the post. I thought he was saying top half of the conference they're playing in, and Creighton just destroyed Villanova
The Big 12 is a combined 96-16 in the non-conference. 7 out of 10 teams are top 40 and the "bottom" teams are both still top 70 teams on KenPom currently.
11 wins is extremely optimistic even though we performed as a top 20 team analytically in the non-conference when removing preseason bias. I would sign up for 8-10 right now.
Agree. If I were to amend the poll results more to an outcome likelihood chart I would have 5-6 wins much more likely than 9-10.
