Playoffs

[HFCS]

We have several this year, probably more than other conference, and we aren't getting any help.

It's not nearly as bad as those early committees where it was a room full of Big Ten legends and a nerdy Texas Tech AD.

Few of these guys are "sports celebrities" which is better than early committees
Ault - MWC/west
Gladchuck - Northeast/ACC/AAC
Grobe - ACC
Manuel - Big Ten
McDaniel - Pac/Big 12/ASU (closest to celeb picker)
Pinkel - SEC
Rhoades - Big 12
Riley - SEC/west coast
Saylor - ACC/Miami
Shields - Big Ten
Whiteside - no clear bias, kind of seems like a resume designed to say "hey I'm not biased as a job"
Williams - ACC as an AD, SEC as a student/player
Yuracheck - SEC

It's not awful but let's not pretend we have some significant presence. I'd take Pollard in a room with 12 Big Ten homers over what we have.

 

[CycloneSpinning]

Oregon
Penn State
Ohio State
Indiana
Texas
Georgia
Tennessee
Notre Dame
MWC champion
Big XII champion
ACC champion

That‘s it. They’re in. All the drama comes down to the spot remaining, between Alabama/Miami/ACC loser if it’s SMU/maybe South Carolina or Ole Miss.

I agree - seeding is a lot more interesting/challenging. Oregon is obviously 1, Texas 2 (for now)…but after that it gets really weird. Notre Dame, Penn State, SMU, Indiana, and Boise State all with one loss…but without truly signature wins. Georgia and Tennessee both with two losses but better wins. Then you have Ohio State, the Big 12 champ, and the other contenders with 2+ losses.

I tend to think Georgia and Tennessee are both better than any of the one loss teams, but Tennessee doesn’t get to/have to play in their CCG. Ohio State and Indiana also don’t get another chance to prove they are great or not. As well as Notre Dame obviously.

I imagine we end up with something like this:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Texas (because they will have only lost to Georgia)
6. Tennessee
7. Notre Dame
8. Big 12 Champ
9. Penn State
10. Ohio State
11. Indiana
12. Alabama (South Carolina won’t get in because they lost to Alabama)

I do think ISU would swap spots with Boise State if they lose their CCG. It would be interesting to see what they do if SMU loses. I honestly don’t know if I hate having us play week 1 though. You already get a week between the CCG and start of the playoff. I suppose it comes down to whether we can get a home game or not. If we had to travel, I would have likely preferred the bye.

 

[HFCS]

I don’t think Notre Dame is that good. We would be huge underdogs but if NIU can win in South Bend, there’s no reason to think he have no shot. I want that matchup way more than the other possibilities. Anyone thinking we are hosting a game is on crack.

Notre Dame is freaking crazy to think about.

- Sagarin (flawed but not meaningless) has them all the way to #1.
- They have the worst loss in the entire Top 25
- They only played 3 road games
- They dodged a CCG and other years committee has said that's a huge penalty

If I were on the committee that's the one team where I'd think I was screwed no matter where I put them.

I do like that ND does get penalized for dodging a CCG, they cannot get a top 4 seed even at 12-0. Ohio State has no such penalty for dodging the Big Ten Championship next week, they'll drop from losing to Michigan but wont drop again for no CCG.

 

[CyTuT]

I hate the bias, but our only solution is win. We MUST win any chance(s) we might get.

 

[CycloneSpinning]

Notre Dame is freaking crazy to think about.

- Sagarin (flawed but not meaningless) has them all the way to #1.
- They have the worst loss in the entire Top 25
- They only played 3 road games
- They dodged a CCG and other years committee has said that's a huge penalty

If I were on the committee that's the one team where I'd think I was screwed no matter where I put them.

I do like that ND does get penalized for dodging a CCG, they cannot get a top 4 seed. Ohio State has no such penalty for dodging the Big Ten Championship next week, they'll drop from losing to Michigan but wont drop again for no CCG.

Assuming Penn State loses to Oregon, I struggled to decide where to slot them and Ohio State. Ohio State obviously beat Penn State, but ultimately I decided to Penn State above Ohio State because Ohio State lost to Michigan and didn’t make their CCG.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

Only edit I have is I think SMU’s in with a win or loss. If SMU wins, Bama, USC, and Miami arguing over that last spot, which Bama probably gets cause of the brand. If SMU loses all 3 are locked out imo

Miami’s only path is beating SMU. They will absolutely get snubbed for a three loss Bama.

 

[AlaCyclone]

Really Kansas is the one who screwed the conference. Somehow only beat the top big 12 teams and lost to UNLV. Without them the big 12 gets 2 in.

Kansas Must be Destroyed!

 

[theshadow]

We have several this year, probably more than other conference, and we aren't getting any help.

I count 1 for sure holding the Big 12 flag. Grobe and McDaniel would be stretches.

Current ADs
Michigan AD [chair]
Arkansas AD
Virginia AD
Baylor AD
Miami (Ohio) AD
Navy AD

Former Coaches/ADs
Chris Ault - Nevada
Jim Grobe - Ohio, Wake Forest, Baylor
Gary Pinkel - Toledo, Missouri
MIke Riley - Oregon State, Nebraska (also played at Alabama)

Former Players
Randall McDaniel - Arizona State (mid 80s)
Will Shields - Nebraska (late 80s/early 90s)

Non-Participant
Kelly Whiteside - formerly USA Today and SI; current sports media prof

 

[HFCS]

Assuming Penn State loses to Oregon, I struggled to decide where to slot them and Ohio State. Ohio State obviously beat Penn State, but ultimately I decided to Penn State above Ohio State because Ohio State lost to Michigan and didn’t make their CCG.

Wherever you rank PSU/OSU this week, it has to be the same if PSU loses to Oregon. That would be my only concern. I really don't know who I'd rank above who this week.

 

[HFCS]

I count 1 for sure holding the Big 12 flag. Grobe and McDaniel would be stretches.

Current ADs
Michigan AD [chair]
Arkansas AD
Virginia AD
Baylor AD
Miami (Ohio) AD
Navy AD

Former Coaches/ADs
Chris Ault - Nevada
Jim Grobe - Ohio, Wake Forest, Baylor
Gary Pinkel - Toledo, Missouri
MIke Riley - Oregon State, Nebraska (also played at Alabama)

Former Players
Randall McDaniel - Arizona State (mid 80s)
Will Shields - Nebraska (late 80s/early 90s)

Non-Participant
Kelly Whiteside - formerly USA Today and SI; current sports media prof

I think McDaniel helps his alma mater ASU but probably could give a flying crap about the old Big 8 schools and BYU.

Basically we have Baylor's AD. Better than nothing, but not some huge edge. To be fair the committee is less loaded with Big Ten homers than usual. Typically 1/3 is just obvious Big Ten homers.

 

[KidSilverhair]

The Tech game was the killer, we had that one and let it go.

 

[Cydwinder]

Miami’s only path is beating SMU. They will absolutely get snubbed for a three loss Bama.

Considering they aren’t playing in the ACC championship, I don’t think we have to worry about them beating SMU

 

[KidSilverhair]

It's going to be a 3 loss SEC team.

But how can a 2 loss SMU be in the conversation but a 2 loss BYU is not?

Those SMU losses to Clemson and /checks notes/ BYU are quality losses, a middling Big XII team like /checks notes/ BYU can’t live up to that

(jimlad, obviously)

 

[BCClone]

I count 1 for sure holding the Big 12 flag. Grobe and McDaniel would be stretches.

Current ADs
Michigan AD [chair]
Arkansas AD
Virginia AD
Baylor AD
Miami (Ohio) AD
Navy AD

Former Coaches/ADs
Chris Ault - Nevada
Jim Grobe - Ohio, Wake Forest, Baylor
Gary Pinkel - Toledo, Missouri
MIke Riley - Oregon State, Nebraska (also played at Alabama)

Former Players
Randall McDaniel - Arizona State (mid 80s)
Will Shields - Nebraska (late 80s/early 90s)

Non-Participant
Kelly Whiteside - formerly USA Today and SI; current sports media prof

Usually it’s loaded with big 10 and SEC toadies. This year it isn’t. It why we have the most favorable committee in recent years. It’s not that we have to have all big 12 reps, it’s not having loads of big ten and SEC reps also.

 

[AlaCyclone]

I agree - seeding is a lot more interesting/challenging. Oregon is obviously 1, Texas 2 (for now)…but after that it gets really weird. Notre Dame, Penn State, SMU, Indiana, and Boise State all with one loss…but without truly signature wins. Georgia and Tennessee both with two losses but better wins. Then you have Ohio State, the Big 12 champ, and the other contenders with 2+ losses.

I tend to think Georgia and Tennessee are both better than any of the one loss teams, but Tennessee doesn’t get to/have to play in their CCG. Ohio State and Indiana also don’t get another chance to prove they are great or not. As well as Notre Dame obviously.

I imagine we end up with something like this:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Texas (because they will have only lost to Georgia)
6. Tennessee
7. Notre Dame
8. Big 12 Champ
9. Penn State
10. Ohio State
11. Indiana
12. Alabama (South Carolina won’t get in because they lost to Alabama)

I do think ISU would swap spots with Boise State if they lose their CCG. It would be interesting to see what they do if SMU loses. I honestly don’t know if I hate having us play week 1 though. You already get a week between the CCG and start of the playoff. I suppose it comes down to whether we can get a home game or not. If we had to travel, I would have likely preferred the bye.

Good write-up. A few points:

If Boise loses to UNLV, Boise will drop like a rock and not be an at-large team. They will only be ranked around # 10 this week, as it is. Also, UNLV will get the P5 AQ invite but not jump the Big XII Champion.

However, if Clemson also wins the ACC, the Big XII Champion could move into the 3 seed spot (if UNLV wins the MWC) or the 4 seed spot (if Boise wins the MWC).

I am not concerned about at-large spots at all, as ISU will not be in cosideration if they lose the CCG, and I do not think either BYU (10-2) or Colorado (9-3) have enough juice to poach the final at-large spot from Alabama / South Carolina / Miami / SMU, etc. BYU should (win @ SMU) and Colorado could (Heisman Winner / Coach Prime, etc.), but I don't think they will jump those other teams.

If for some reason, the Big XII Champion does not get the Fiesta BYE and is the 5th AQ, I think there is a good chance that they get the #8 seed, so they can host a First Round Game. Of course, that would be just too damn logical!

 

[KidSilverhair]

Miami’s only path is beating SMU. They will absolutely get snubbed for a three loss Bama.

Miami isn’t playing SMU. Their regular season is over and they’re not in the CCG.

 

[AlaCyclone]

Usually it’s loaded with big 10 and SEC toadies. This year it isn’t. It why we have the most favorable committee in recent years. It’s not that we have to have all big 12 reps, it’s not having loads of big ten and SEC reps also.

But there are too many G5 Reps which is why Boise and Tulane (before they frauded out) are / were being given such high consideration. "Playing @ Wyoming is tough" and stuff like that.

 

[ISU_Guy]

I have that Texas tech interception in the redzone getting over turned by our hands to the face penalty in which tech went on to march down the field to change the game in my head here.

 

[Clonehomer]

I agree - seeding is a lot more interesting/challenging. Oregon is obviously 1, Texas 2 (for now)…but after that it gets really weird. Notre Dame, Penn State, SMU, Indiana, and Boise State all with one loss…but without truly signature wins. Georgia and Tennessee both with two losses but better wins. Then you have Ohio State, the Big 12 champ, and the other contenders with 2+ losses.

I tend to think Georgia and Tennessee are both better than any of the one loss teams, but Tennessee doesn’t get to/have to play in their CCG. Ohio State and Indiana also don’t get another chance to prove they are great or not. As well as Notre Dame obviously.

I imagine we end up with something like this:

1. Oregon
2. Georgia
3. SMU
4. Boise State
5. Texas (because they will have only lost to Georgia)
6. Tennessee
7. Notre Dame
8. Big 12 Champ
9. Penn State
10. Ohio State
11. Indiana
12. Alabama (South Carolina won’t get in because they lost to Alabama)

I do think ISU would swap spots with Boise State if they lose their CCG. It would be interesting to see what they do if SMU loses. I honestly don’t know if I hate having us play week 1 though. You already get a week between the CCG and start of the playoff. I suppose it comes down to whether we can get a home game or not. If we had to travel, I would have likely preferred the bye.

TBH, I’m not sure I’d want to host a game. The offense did not look good in the cold. The passing game just didn’t connect and I don’t think our running game is good enough to compete in a CFP game. I’d actually like our chances going to Texas better than hosting a team like Penn State.

 

[HFCS]

Usually it’s loaded with big 10 and SEC toadies. This year it isn’t. It why we have the most favorable committee in recent years. It’s not that we have to have all big 12 reps, it’s not having loads of big ten and SEC reps also.

I don't know if you saw my thread where I compared the AP/Commitee to the computer composite.

We actually aren't ranked low in comparison to Big Ten/SEC this year, but we are across the board compared to AAC, MWC and ACC. At least comparing to computer metrics. That disparity has been getting worse as the season goes on.