***Official Bracketology Thread***

[cyclones500]

I don't know what Lundari did. He has WSU as an 8 seed, as MVC auto-bid, and has Illinois State at-large, but at 11 play-in ... those could both be in, but they ought to be nearly same seed line, if you're going that route.

And if he had ISU at 7 in previous bracket, that's the only team that he has marked as a drop between 7 and 9 seeds, and MInnesota is only team that climbed (and seems like UM was a 7 already). So Wichita State is the only team that climbed over any team in that range.

Did he simply misplace something?

 

[Cydwinder]

What is our ceiling in regards to a seed? 5?

Personally, I want to stay away from the 8 and 9 seed. I'll take a 10 over and 8/9

Highest I could see would be a 4/5 if we won out and won the big 12 tournament. Would be a red hot team and would have wins over several top teams (Baylor, WVU, and likely a few in KC too).
Like others have said though I think realistically it is a 5/6.

 

[brokenloginagain]

strange that we match up better with 1 seeds (bay, KU, nova, zags) than we do against the 2s, 3s, and 4s.

 

[Sigmapolis]

So you're telling me there's a chance?

 

[cyclones500]

What is our ceiling in regards to a seed? 5?

Personally, I want to stay away from the 8 and 9 seed. I'll take a 10 over and 8/9

I ran a nearly-best-case scenario thru RPI Forecast's rpi wizard, winning out, beating OSU and Baylor to reach Big 12 title game, losing to KU .... puts ISU at 24 RPI, 20 SOS. That's 4/5 seed territory. I don't expect to do quite that well.

First time through, I had ISU winning remainder of home games, plus Tech, losing to WVa, beating KSU, losing to Baylor. That came to 32-ish, which is 6/7, I'd guess.

 

[DRCHIRO]

How do we drop from a 7 seed to a 9 seed (according to Lunardi) after last nights win?

 

[MartinCy]

So you're telling me there's a chance?

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I really like the TeamRankings info but I think the seed projections are selling us short a bit. If we finish 11-7 in conference and win one game in KC, I would have us at a likely 6 seed with a 7 being possible but the worst we could do. For that 11-7 + 1 in KC scenario to play out, we would just have to win the games we are favored in going forward. Team rankings, however, is giving us only a 5% chance at a 6 seed and only 13% chance at a 7 seed. Odd.

 

[AuH2O]

How do we drop from a 7 seed to a 9 seed (according to Lunardi) after last nights win?

During the game they showed Lunardi projecting ISU as a 9, so that was the case before the win.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I really like the TeamRankings info but I think the seed projections are selling us short a bit. If we finish 11-7 in conference and win one game in KC, I would have us at a likely 6 seed with a 7 being possible but the worst we could do. For that 11-7 + 1 in KC scenario to play out, we would just have to win the games we are favored in going forward. Team rankings, however, is giving us only a 5% chance at a 6 seed and only 13% chance at a 7 seed. Odd.

Their projections are stochastic when, of course, W-L are a binary 1 or 0 as a result, even if you project "0.6" of a win against OSU at home or something like that.

It can lead to some lumpy projections.

I am just glad that, given our SOS, RPI, W-L record, and maybe some KenPom and Sagarin thrown in there, that we are now well on our way (~90%) of being a team that fits the profile of an NCAA tournament team this late in the year. We were down to the 55% range, if I remember correctly, before KU, so watching our boys knuckle down, win two HUGE games in Kansas, and go 3-1 over the intermediate period was wonderful to see.

 

[Clones8686]

How do we drop from a 7 seed to a 9 seed (according to Lunardi) after last nights win?

I tried to tell people when Lunardi was overseeding us and I'll say it again now that he us underseeding us. He's just throwing **** against the wall, he probably puts 3 minutes of actual thought into these in-season brackets, and that's assuming he doesn't just have an intern do it.

During the game they showed Lunardi projecting ISU as a 9, so that was the case before the win.

If that's the case then he was too lazy to even update it, because the newest Bracketology is dated 2/16. Not that I am surprised by this.

 

[CycloneWarning]

Glad I'm not the only one trying to figure Lunardi out. I don't really care as it will change 20 times between now and the tournament, but dropping us 2 full seeds after a top 50 road win makes no sense.

Yea, that bracket is crap. Lunardi? You drunk? We beat a top 50 RPI team on the road and we drop 2 seeds?

The only thing redeeming about this bracket published today is he continues to line up a potential second round KU - Wichita State game. That would be awesome (again). Self ducks WSU year after year and they spanked the overrated KBoo when they got the chance in the tourney last time.

 

[cyclones500]

During the game they showed Lunardi projecting ISU as a 9, so that was the case before the win.

Ah, I hadn't seen that during the game.

I compared Lunardi's current bracket with his previous one (which was Monday), looks like the only teams that jumped ISU's previous slot are Minnesota (went from 8 to 7) and Wichita State (went from 9 to 8). KSU went from a 10 to an 11. WSU didn't do anything obvious in those three days to climb a line. I think I could see dropping from 7 to 8 if computer numbers shifted with teams' resumes, but not to a 9. Odd.

It probably doesn't have anything to do with bracket principles, either, to shift from 7 to 8/9, since Big 12 has no teams in the 2 or 3 slots, and it doesn't look like there would be other conflicts with 8/9 teams in other conferences.

 

[CTTB78]

Lunardi used to be spot on to the eventual big board but the last three or so he has faded. Not to worried about where he has us now. Most 'experts' have us a lock and that's good enough for me. I think we go in as a 7 seed.

 

[MartinCy]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Back up to a 7 seed in Lunardi's latest update. Playing USC in Indy 1st round with Louisville as the 2 seed.

 

[Mr Janny]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Back up to a 7 seed in Lunardi's latest update. Playing USC in Indy 1st round with Louisville as the 2 seed.

man, if we could get up to the 6 line, it would be huge.

 

[CysRage]

man, if we could get up to the 6 line, it would be huge.

Agreed. I think if we win 3-4 more games (including Big 12 tournament) that will dang near put us at a 6 seed. 7 at worst.

 

[keepngoal]

Agreed. I think if we win 3-4 more games (including Big 12 tournament) that will dang near put us at a 6 seed. 7 at worst.

And that is without others falling apart or stumbling. A hot run, or above the grade run will look good to the committee

 

[igraves679]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...ketball-march-madness-wichita-state/98241924/

 

[Gunnerclone]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Back up to a 7 seed in Lunardi's latest update. Playing USC in Indy 1st round with Louisville as the 2 seed.

I'd like to avoid Louisville.

 

[cyclones500]

I'd like to avoid Louisville.

Agree. That seems like a style ISU might struggle against. As 2's go in that bracket, Arizona would be tough, too, (but Zona seems more Gonzaga-ish, could be more manageable). Oregon would be the preferable among those 3, I think.