***Official Bracketology Thread***
- Thread starter StratCY
- Start date
We could easily go 6-6 the rest of the way leaving us at 17-12 into the B12 tourney. Not good. That's winning all but one home game and losing all the road games, other than Vandy. I see this as a very possible scenario. Our RPI might be decent but there would be ZERO notable road wins and a neutral site win over a mediocre Miami team. Not a good resume' when on the bubble.
Agree. That's danger-zone territory. That probably requires getting at least one quality win in conference tournament, minimum.
We can't rely on history, because every season is different, but your scenario means ending with 13 losses. Even in the 30/31-game regular season era, It isn't common for teams with 13-plus losses to get an at-large bid, if my memory serves. And those situations involved teams with killer strength-of-schedule resumes (like, top 5 material, which ISU won't reach).
Here's Jerry Palm's latest
CBS Sports bracket, Jan. 20
I haven't reviewed it yet, to determine how accurate he is.
Edit: He has ISU at Last 4 in. At worst, Iowa State is in Last 4 byes (even though it status is trending closer to bubble in past week or so).
CBS Sports bracket, Jan. 20
I haven't reviewed it yet, to determine how accurate he is.
Edit: He has ISU at Last 4 in. At worst, Iowa State is in Last 4 byes (even though it status is trending closer to bubble in past week or so).
Agree. We need to finish at least 10-8 in conference play to be confident of a tourney spot.
UCLA lost at home, vs. Arizona.
More of a boost for Arizona than a downgrade for UCLA. Even so, UCLA probably fell to a 2 seed.
More of a boost for Arizona than a downgrade for UCLA. Even so, UCLA probably fell to a 2 seed.
Bracketmatrix was updated this morning and had us as the last 9 seed. Kind of interesting considering it had us as a 10 before the 2 game losing streak
One of the more fun college basketball games I've watched in the last few years. I expect both of these teams to end up as 2 seeds or higher.
It will be interesting to see what the committee does with the Pac 12 this year, will they be penalized for last year's complete flop? Will the committee be more inclined to give extra credit to where kenpom and the like rate Pac 12 teams? (although the Pac 12 RPI doesn't look too great either)
edit: the most similar recent comp for this year's UCLA team (kenpom #1 offense, #123 defense) is probably 2012 Missouri (#1 offense, #112 defense) and we all know they lost in the first round as a 2 seed.
So if we get a 7-10 seed, give me UCLA (or the team that beats them) in round 2 is what I'm saying.
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Not much to do with tourney seeding, but it's a good looking graphic that's colorful.
lunardi wrote that he currently has NINE teams with losing conference records in his bracket.
he expects ZERO mid majors to make it as an at large.
if there's ever a year to be a power 5 bubble team, this is the year.
he expects ZERO mid majors to make it as an at large.
if there's ever a year to be a power 5 bubble team, this is the year.
Stealing a ton of content here, hence, link...
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/iowa-st-cyclones/bracketology
Looks like we need 22 for a "check mark" (rather unlikely) and 20 to feel pretty safe... and 19 to feel somewhat safe. Hence why I had so many heart attacks against OU.
I recommend this site -- you can sign up for them to send and update around 2 AM the morning after each of our games to see how this changes. We went from 60%~ to make to 68% after winning the OU game, for instance, and I've seen it bounce the other direction, too. :/
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/iowa-st-cyclones/bracketology
Looks like we need 22 for a "check mark" (rather unlikely) and 20 to feel pretty safe... and 19 to feel somewhat safe. Hence why I had so many heart attacks against OU.
I recommend this site -- you can sign up for them to send and update around 2 AM the morning after each of our games to see how this changes. We went from 60%~ to make to 68% after winning the OU game, for instance, and I've seen it bounce the other direction, too. :/
He expects zero mid majors to get at large bids and yet he has Gonzaga as a 2 seed and St. Mary's as a 6 seed.
It's almost like he just throws **** against the wall all year long with half of it not even being coherent.
I saw that analysis, too. It looks like Lunardi is correct ... we can argue somewhat with his current field, but the overview is trending in that direction.
At this point, the only conferences that appear safely multi-bid at-large are P5, Big East, American, A-10 and West Cost. The only teams outside of that group that might get in without an auto-bid are probably Illinois State, Middle Tennessee, UNC-Wilmington, Nevada and BYU.
Those first four have little room for error, almost no chance to improve resumes at this point beyond simply winning out.
BYU isn't close right now, but has opportunities left facing Gonzaga twice and St. Mary's once in regular season. Still probably needs auto-bid.
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
ISU up to an 8 seed in the East in Lunardi's latest. Slated to play Arkansas 1st round.
ISU up to an 8 seed in the East in Lunardi's latest. Slated to play Arkansas 1st round.
I think if there is any 1 or 2 seed I would pick to face in the second round in that scenario, it'd be Villanova. Not saying I'd be overly thrilled.
Some big wins helped out in the past week. Let's keep it rolling.
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/iowa-st-cyclones/bracketology
http://m.espn.com/ncb/bracketology?iteration=217®ion=2&year=2017
Joey Brackets has isu as an 8 seed
Joey Brackets has isu as an 8 seed
Seems about right. I'd go w/ a 9 right now, essentially the same thing.
Still in safe area for now, gotta start winning more consistently. Lotta teams sliding downward and quite a few teams in and out of play-in/bubble.
It's that time of year, separate the put-up from the shut-up.
