***Official 2026 World Cup Thread***

58% chance its Bosnia. The following round its 26% Belgium and 20% Egypt. The US has a 53% chance of making the quarterfinals.
As I understand it, we almost certainly get the Bosnia-Qatar winner in the Round of 32 if one of them win. Not sure who would be better. Such a weird system.
 
If you haven't taken time to watch some of the videos of Europeans thoughts on the US during the World Cup, I'd recommend checking them out. Pretty complimentary of America and some are pretty funny.
 
As I understand it, we almost certainly get the Bosnia-Qatar winner in the Round of 32 if one of them win. Not sure who would be better. Such a weird system.

Have you figured out how the 3rd place teams are placed? I see that there are several groups each spot can come from. And I assume there are some sort of logic behind those groups. But it seems there would be more than just one game deciding it if the spots are based on which groups get a 3rd place teams? Or maybe the 3rd place teams are more set than I realized.
 
Have you figured out how the 3rd place teams are placed? I see that there are several groups each spot can come from. And I assume there are some sort of logic behind those groups. But it seems there would be more than just one game deciding it if the spots are based on which groups get a 3rd place teams? Or maybe the 3rd place teams are more set than I realized.
It’s very pre-determined, but good luck figuring out. The short answer is that the slots are already pre-determined depending on what groups the 3rd places come from. There is no ranking among the 3rd places, and what matters is which combination of groups they came from. Link below, page 19 and Annex C has the info.


 
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This officially eliminates any possibility that we get matched up with Norway in the first round.
That's good for us (USA). Norway is one of those teams just outside the top 5 or 6 tier, but has dark horse potential to make it to a semi-final for example. They've got a couple of the best in the world players in Odegaard and Haaland who would start for nearly any side, and this is very much their "golden generation" with other top players playing at the biggest clubs like Sorloth, Nusa, etc, and they will be a tough out in the knockout rounds for whomever they get. Norway just rolled through qualifying and breezed past Italy. It's the Norwegians that kept the multiple-time world champions out of this World Cup.

Still no guarantee it will be France first and Norway second. The Norwegians have the potential to beat the French (unlikely, but possible). That final group game between those two coming this weekend..... WOW. That could be the best group game of the tournament even though they're only playing for first or second.
 
58% chance its Bosnia. The following round its 26% Belgium and 20% Egypt. The US has a 53% chance of making the quarterfinals.

Tons of Bosnians in DSM, be fun to go to a big game watch with everybody’s it happens. Thats if people can behave themselves.
 
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That's good for us (USA). Norway is one of those teams just outside the top 5 or 6 tier, but has dark horse potential to make it to a semi-final for example. They've got a couple of the best in the world players in Odegaard and Haaland who would start for nearly any side, and this is very much their "golden generation" with other top players playing at the biggest clubs like Sorloth, Nusa, etc, and they will be a tough out in the knockout rounds for whomever they get. Norway just rolled through qualifying and breezed past Italy. It's the Norwegians that kept the multiple-time world champions out of this World Cup.

Still no guarantee it will be France first and Norway second. The Norwegians have the potential to beat the French (unlikely, but possible). That final group game between those two coming this weekend..... WOW. That could be the best group game of the tournament even though they're only playing for first or second.

Feel bad for Senegal being placed with France and Norway. Talent wise, they should have been able to qualify for the knockout pretty easily. But when you have those two in your group, the best you’re gonna get is 3 points with a not great goal differential.
 
Tons of Bosnians in DSM, be fun to go to a big game watch with everybody’s it happens. Thats if people can behave themselves.

Same with the Cedar Valley area. Would be a great atmosphere. In my experience, Bosnians love the game but aren’t likely to have things get ugly in a watch party.
 

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