On Shota, I think you have to pick up the next 3 years, so it's not as easy as saying pick up the 20 mil this year.
*** Official 2025 Chicago Cubs Thread***
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Right, it's a tricky situation really. On the surface the bulk of the work he's had over 2 season is not bad. But the bad has been more recent and not something you want to see continue either. So probably going to come down to does the staff and management thing he's worth the gamble that they can fix his early inning long ball problems or is there too much risk to commit to picking up the option.
Mo is 21. It's not the end of the world if he doesn't necessarily have a defined role going into next year.
This is not directed at you, but there are multiple people who want to trade Happ and/or Seiya, and I get it. But be careful what you wish for. The chances of Caissie or Alcantara or Mo having better offensive years than those guys as rookies is not likely. MAYBE Mo, but he's also a liability defensively.
I think you decline and assume Shota is going to pick up the player option at $15M.
The other weird thing about this deal is that if Shota takes the player option and has a bounce back year, the Cubs hold a 2/$42M club option after next season so if he pitches well and you feel better about the last two years, you can still get them on the cheap.
The other possibility is Shota declines the player option, the Cubs extend a QO that he'd be insane not to take and he plays next year for $22M and the Cubs lose the club option for 26 and 27.
It's messy but it's highly, highly likely that Shota is a Cub next year and you can do worse for a 5th starter.
If I trusted the FO to go out and get a top half guy I would definitely decline the option. But even if they do that, he could pick it up or take the QO.
Will be interesting to watch.
I'd be open to trading Happ if it means getting an impact bat upgrade for the OF in another move but the NTC makes that difficult. I don't see a reason why to trade Suzuki at this point really. He just had the best season of his career.
I don't know what to expect from Caissie but this much is certain that if you don't plan to make him a big part of the OF picture in 2026 you might as well trade him now while he is at his peak value. Alcantara is at a similar crossroad too although he projects more as an 4th OF but I don't really see a scenario where you keep both unless you say "these are our guys and we have confidence in them." Which at that point you are all in I guess that you think the solution is in house which I would rather go out and get a more proven commodity if we can.
Agree on Mo, he's young and easily a bench upgrade over Turner to DH and play some first and maybe a little catcher too. The problem is he also hits left handed so you can't really use him as a platoon for Busch when facing a lefty pitcher. Caissie also bats left so that throws out the idea of a possible position change for him.
I'm not necessarily against trading Happ under the right circumstances. Do I think its likely? Absolutely not. Like so little chance it's not even worth discussing.
The Happ discussion on waiving the NTC is going to take about 3 seconds and it's going to be a hard no. He's the union rep, he took less money to get the NTC and he and his wife love Chicago. It's not happening.
I'm worried that you missed the window to get any value for Alcantara. Repeating AAA and not greatly improving his numbers against right handed pitching is a pretty big red flag that other orgs are going to see.
I think you roll into next year with Caissie as your 4th OF and try to get him a couple of starts a week. I also think the platoon at 1B is over and Busch is going to get 150 starts there which does limit some flexibility.
I'm worried that you missed the window to get any value for Alcantara. Repeating AAA and not greatly improving his numbers against right handed pitching is a pretty big red flag that other orgs are going to see.
I think you roll into next year with Caissie as your 4th OF and try to get him a couple of starts a week. I also think the platoon at 1B is over and Busch is going to get 150 starts there which does limit some flexibility.
No, but if you want elite money…you had better be a leader and elite in ways other than what we see measured by numbers. I guess I’m willing to take this in a different direction. What do you think would be a reasonable salary for Tucker? I would say if you think he’s physically good, mentally good, and wants to be in Chicago…you could potentially go up to 8 years for $360 million (ideally more like 320). At this point, I think I would rather pay Schwarber $225 for 5. Play him at DH 80% of the time, and then in left or 1st the rest…and start to get Caissie time in the corners. He can likely take over for Happ in left as he gets experience.
I'm fairly over Happ at this point. The glove always plays, but he is just so inconsistent at the plate. However, I know he's not going anywhere anytime soon, and we could do a HELL of a lot worse, so it is what it is.
I hope you are right about this but as long as there is some cheap washed up 1B out there that bats right handed don't be shocked if they sign one. Throwing out a name that kind of fits that description that I sure hope the front office is not looking at and that is Paul Goldschmidt. Just turned 38 and likely won't be looked at in free agency as a full time 1B next year is my guess. Can see the Cubs looking at his splits this year and say "well he hit .336 against lefties, he's the perfect complement to Busch!"
I don't think either guy will get 45 AAV. I'd be willing to go 35-40 on Tucker. Potentially higher if needed.
I love Kyle Schwarber but there is no way I'm giving him 45 AAV to DH for 5 years. That's insane.
Supposedly they were talking near $500 million initially for 10-12 years. I just don’t think you get more than 8 out of him…and you probably only get 4 more with him as a plus defender. But you’re right, my math was bad. I was thinking $8 mil per war and an average war of 4-4.5. I’d prefer to be in the 32-38/year for 8 years. I’ll leave my original post untouched for honesty-sake/leave my flawed numbers out there. If you could get Schwarber for less than $120 mil for 5 years, that feels like a great deal to me. I would have originally thought 160, but I can see where you might pare that down due to age and not having done what he did this year consistently.
I have concerns about Suzuki's defense in right, but Tucker wasn't great either. Maybe we could just move Suzuki to right, have Mo be the DH and Caissie be a 4th OF. Not playing everyday might not be great for development though.
I heard the 500 talk.
The reality is there are 5 deals of 40 AAV or higher in MLB. 3 are named Ohtani, Soto, and Judge. The other 2 are short term deals.
We can all agree he isn't in that tier. Give him 35-40 with a reasonable amount of years and call it a day.
I think again if they have a reasonable confidence that he wants to be in Chicago and can handle the workload, I wouldn’t complain if they gave him 35-38. I still prefer Schwarber at this time though. He’s proven himself in the clutch and from all I’ve seen is amazing for the clubhouse. Both would be amazing, but I doubt that’s happening.
Curious why? Because he’s streaky?
Happ has been consistent at a 4.0 WAR since 2022. Add in his leadership and I’ll take that all day rather than rolling the dice to find a better and cost-effective replacement.
I would absolutely take Schwarber on the right deal. It would just not have anything to do with Tucker.
Schwarber is coming off his best season ever and will be 33. Could he keep it up for a few year? Possibly. Maybe.
He definitely brings more slug and maybe "clutch" than Tucker but Tucker does everything else better. Hits for a higher average, gets on base more, walks are similar, strikes out FAR less, can actually play defense.
