*** Official 2025 Chicago Cubs Thread***

[CYdTracked]

I mean yes he got hit in September and the playoffs, but he had a 2.9 era last year and his era was essentially 3 going into September. Heck even in his rough September (5 Starts) he gave up more than 3 runs one time. I think I would trust him to figure it out and get back to be able to locating the baseball better like he was in the larger sample size.

Kikuchi is a similar age with a carrer ERA close to 4.5 and got 3/63 last year on the open market.

Look if the Cubs actually open up their checkbook and get an elite starter, I can understand the move. I guess I just dont trust this ownership group to actually get a big name and instead just pick someone off the trash heap to save Tom a few bucks.

Agree a lot with what you said. The bulk of the work over his 2 season is not bad but the issues late this season were quite concerning that maybe regression is starting? Have to trust the management and those that analyze this stuff for a living think that it's not wise to take on the risk at that price is my only guess. If they go out and sign a top end of the rotation pitcher then I have no problem with this move. But if they sit out once again and go bargain bin diving they may as well just brought him back again if they aren't going to use that money to improve.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Extend the QO

You can live with 1/22. Plus, we know Tommy ain't spending any money this offseason anyway.

Only the Cubs would get bought by a billionaire with next to no liquidity.

 

[iowastatechris]

In all honesty this is probably my biggest sort of frustration. Would I have taken the gamble on picking up the Shota option, yes. But also you are the freaking Chicago Cubs. Even if Shota doesnt age well, a 3/57 contract shouldnt be a major hinderance to you. We arent the freaking Pirates. If Ricketts hates being called cheap so much, open up the damn checkbook and make a major splash for once.

 

[CYdTracked]

In all honesty this is probably my biggest sort of frustration. Would I have taken the gamble on picking up the Shota option, yes. But also you are the freaking Chicago Cubs. Even if Shota doesnt age well, a 3/57 contract shouldnt be a major hinderance to you. We arent the freaking Pirates. If Ricketts hates being called cheap so much, open up the damn checkbook and make a major splash for once.

I keep going back to when the Cubs signed Edwin Jackson to that terrible 4 year/$52 mil contract then he was so bad Cubs finally cut him in the 3rd year of that deal. That was essentially a $13 AAV contract which I'm guessing in today's dollars would be closer to $20 mil? The Cubs should be able to eat some of a bad contract that doesn't work out, the top market teams like the Yankees and Red Sox do it all the time but the Cubs seem to operate more like a Kansas City or Tampa Bay market size team and seem scared they will get stuck with another bad contract like Heyward I guess.

 

[iowastatechris]

There is absolutely no reason the Cubs should be acting like KC or Tampa. The franchise is worth 4 Billion ******* Dollars. Not only do the Ricketts own the team and Wrigley they also are heavily invested in the real estate market around Wrigley. If you are going to own a big market team, charge big market team prices, start your own television channel, etc. THEN ACT LIKE A BIG MARKET ******* TEAM!!

 

[cycub51]

I think they should have picked it up. I think a lot of it came after his hamstring injury which was mismanaged. He came out of a start due to “cramping” of the hamstring and then the next one injured it worse. Another sign of the cubs training staff pushing players and not letting stuff heal.

 

[ScottyP]

I think they should have picked it up. I think a lot of it came after his hamstring injury which was mismanaged. He came out of a start due to “cramping” of the hamstring and then the next one injured it worse. Another sign of the cubs training staff pushing players and not letting stuff heal.

Also, even when he struggled, he still battled. You could tell he wasn't 100 percent.

 

[CYdTracked]

I think they should have picked it up. I think a lot of it came after his hamstring injury which was mismanaged. He came out of a start due to “cramping” of the hamstring and then the next one injured it worse. Another sign of the cubs training staff pushing players and not letting stuff heal.

If he has a bounce back year with another team it will magnify the issue with injury management we've seen lately. I originally was onboard picking up the option because the AAV for the bulk of work he's done in 2 seasons was still good value IMO. The more people broke down the options the more I became open to the idea that I would not be upset if they didn't pick up the option. Have to trust the management and scouts don't think he's worth the risk of that investment going forward if they declined. At this point why risk him taking the QO unless they have no plans to go after other pitching in that price range or higher. I don't know what his market will be but I am sure he will get more than a 1 year deal but not at 22 mil. The 1 thing that could come back and bite the Cubs is with how they have managed both Shota and Suzuki it makes you wonder if the Cubs will be less appealing options for future Japanese players. Suzuki's season kind of worked itself out as he apparently was not happy with being strictly a DH but with the OF injuries he got to play the field more than anticipated and was not terrible when he did too.

My mindset now shifts that the Cubs just cleared a significant multi-year financial commitment and have several higher priced contracts coming off the books too (Tucker, Shota, Rogers, Kittredge, Soroka, Turner plus a glut of relievers they probably won't retain) that they should have a good chunck of payroll to make a big signing. Top end of the rotation starting pitcher should be the focus now. If they don't do that then what was the point of decling Shota's option?

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I keep going back to when the Cubs signed Edwin Jackson to that terrible 4 year/$52 mil contract then he was so bad Cubs finally cut him in the 3rd year of that deal. That was essentially a $13 AAV contract which I'm guessing in today's dollars would be closer to $20 mil? The Cubs should be able to eat some of a bad contract that doesn't work out, the top market teams like the Yankees and Red Sox do it all the time but the Cubs seem to operate more like a Kansas City or Tampa Bay market size team and seem scared they will get stuck with another bad contract like Heyward I guess.

The Cubs do eat money, it's just the wrong type of money to be eating. Instead of eating the back end of contracts from guys that actually provide value in the first half of the deal, they're busy eating Mancini, Barnhart, Neris and Pressly money. So you got no value at all from those guys AND you're on the hook for paying them. The absolute worst of both worlds.

 

[RoseClone]

 

[cycloneman003]

Basically decided they weren't going to pick up his $9mil option for 2026. Traded him to save the $1mil buyout and some addition cash from the O's.

I think this leaves just the Rea option (would be shocked if that doesn't get picked up at $6mil) and the qualifying offers for Tucker (absolutely will get a QO) and Imanaga (I think he will get a QO) as the pending decisions ahead of the offseason.

 

[cyatheart]

Trading kittredge for cash back to Baltimore I was not expecting.

 

[ClonesTwenty1]

Gonna be a busy offseason

 

[ISUCubswin]

Simple way to look at it.

I believe the FO was looking at $55M to spend with Shota. $75M to spend without.

I believe we trade for a pre-arb pitcher anyway. Cabrera, Baz, maybe Ryan. Loading up on SPs with a similar yet cheaper model as the Dodgers this year.

Would you rather spend $22M on Shota, who it sounds like might not just be a simple "fix," or would you rather spend that $22-25M on a higher ceiling SP who you are confident can give you quality postseason innings? For example, Michael King looks VERY enticing to me.

 

[NazClone]

I keep going back to when the Cubs signed Edwin Jackson to that terrible 4 year/$52 mil contract then he was so bad Cubs finally cut him in the 3rd year of that deal. That was essentially a $13 AAV contract which I'm guessing in today's dollars would be closer to $20 mil? The Cubs should be able to eat some of a bad contract that doesn't work out, the top market teams like the Yankees and Red Sox do it all the time but the Cubs seem to operate more like a Kansas City or Tampa Bay market size team and seem scared they will get stuck with another bad contract like Heyward I guess.

Soriano was a big $ contract that was a bust. IIRC

 

[CYdTracked]

Bieber opting into his 1 year $12 mil dollar option is a bit of a surprise. Really makes you wonder if the Cubs won't extend the QO to Shota because if Bieber was concerned he could not do better than that then the odds Shota accepts the 1 year $22 mil just increased. And Shota also opted out of taking the 2 yr $30.5 mil deal with an opt out after next year which is more than Bieber just opted into so that makes you pause a bit on where this is headed. I'd much rather spend the $22 mil on someone better than Shota at this point.

The free agency market should be really interesting this offseason with the CBA looming after the end of the 2026 season. Are teams going to tighten the purses a bit and not do huge long-term deals but maybe be more open to lucrative 1-3 year deals with higher AAV and options? The uncertainty about a possible cap being put in place or some stiffer luxury tax penalties for teams spending like the Dodgers are may make some of the bigger market teams pause a bit on adding additional long term salary now until they know the parameters of the next CBA.

Wishful thinking here but maybe Ricketts tells Jed they'd open up the checkbook for some large 1 year deals if he can make it happen and go all in for 2026 then have the flexibility to navigate the new CBA with a clean slate?

 

[RoseClone]

 

[BigJCy]

Chicago Cubs​

Biggest need: Rebuilding the bullpen

The Cubs will focus on restocking their bullpen since practically all of their high-leverage arms are free agents, with the exception of Daniel Palencia. They are expected to be active on relievers in both free agency and trades. I also think they could use another top-of-the-rotation starter — especially after they let Shota Imanaga head to free agency — and with a strong farm system, they have enough chips to trade for one.

The Cubs are not expected to be heavy players for right fielder Kyle Tucker and seem comfortable going forward with Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Owen Caissie in their outfield.

 

[RivClone23]

Chicago Cubs​

Biggest need: Rebuilding the bullpen

The Cubs will focus on restocking their bullpen since practically all of their high-leverage arms are free agents, with the exception of Daniel Palencia. They are expected to be active on relievers in both free agency and trades. I also think they could use another top-of-the-rotation starter — especially after they let Shota Imanaga head to free agency — and with a strong farm system, they have enough chips to trade for one.

The Cubs are not expected to be heavy players for right fielder Kyle Tucker and seem comfortable going forward with Ian Happ, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Seiya Suzuki and Owen Caissie in their outfield.

I get that the bullpen needs to be rebuilt and I wish they would sign more high leverage guys, but we do this dance every year. And every year Jed ends up with a pretty good bullpen.

I guess all I'm saying is the bullpen is the least of my worries. They'll sign a few guys. Some will work out and some won't. The bullpen will look very different on July 1 than it does on April 1 yada yada yada.

Go add 2 SP and some pop to the lineup. Thanks.

 

[RoseClone]