***Official 2024 Chicago Cubs Thread***
- Thread starter CycloneErik
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I'll post what I'd like to see happen but first, I'm going to post my predictions for what DOES happen this offseason:
1 - Bellinger opts out. Whilst he didn't play up to a better contract, he knows playing less in the OF hurts his long term $$$.
2 - Alonso to Chicago, leading to Busch/Shaw platooning 2B
3 - Caissie/Suzuki platoon RF
4 - Hoerner, Alcantara to Seattle or Tampa for Kirby or Baz
5 - Sign Jansen and Yarborough for the bullpen
1 - Bellinger opts out. Whilst he didn't play up to a better contract, he knows playing less in the OF hurts his long term $$$.
2 - Alonso to Chicago, leading to Busch/Shaw platooning 2B
3 - Caissie/Suzuki platoon RF
4 - Hoerner, Alcantara to Seattle or Tampa for Kirby or Baz
5 - Sign Jansen and Yarborough for the bullpen
Suzuki is good enough to be an everyday player. If he's splitting time he should be mostky DH on the other days
My thoughts on the likelihood of these scenarios
1. While I hope he opts out my gut feeling is he opts in. He went from a 4.2 WAR last season to 2.2 this year, pretty much down in every statistical category while playing the exact same number of games as last year and 17 more AB. If the contract was not there last offseason I don't know how it is going to be there this offseason with a regression that other teams were concerned about last year that didn't lead to the big long term deal. Don't get my wrong I hope he opts out as that is a lot of $ the Cubs can spend on a bigger need but I don't see it happening.
2. Don't see this signing happening and I hope it does not because a big contract to Alonso will likely not age well. I have a feeling they are content with running Busch out at 1B again next year and there are plenty of internal options at 2B so if they are going to spend big $ somewhere 1B and 2B are going to be 2 spots they can go with cheap options already on the roster.
3. Suzuki is an everyday player, he will DH or play RF but definitely not a platoon player. Caissie may get get a shot in Chicago but he won't take away AB from Suzuki. He may play RF but Suzuki will still DH most day he does. And this is also contingent on Bellinger opting out as if he opts in the OF is still very crowded.
4. Probably the most likely scenario of Nico being part of a trade if they want to make a big move as there is depth in the system at 2B.
5. I can see the Cubs in the market for a proven quality late inning reliever so this is also very likely they target 1 or both of these guys
Yes, platoon defensively but his bat should be in the lineup every day
Just spit balling some random thoughts here on next season's roster so this is a lot of rambling thoughts as I just comb through the roster. These are the guys that will certainly be in the picture going into the offseason due to under contract or certainly will be tendered a contract.
Position players:
C: Amaya, Bethancourt
1B; Busch
2B: Hoerner
3B: Paredes
SS: Swanson
OF: Happ, PCA, Suzuki
Bench/40 man roster guys with MLB service: Vazquez Alcantara
Options or possible non-tender candidates: Bellinger (player option) Tauchman, Wisdom, Madrigal, Mastrobuoni
Position player thoughts: my gut feeling is Bellinger opts in which clogs the OF picture again. Madrigal certainly will be non-tendered and I think Wisdom likely will be tendered too. I have nothing against Tauchman but he can't be optioned to Iowa so I would not be surprised if he is non-tendered too because of all the OF we have in the picture both on the big league roster and knocking on the door at Iowa. I didn't put Brennen Davis on the list but given his injury woes I have a feeling he will be a 40 man causality as they need to clear spots to protect guys from the Rule 5 draft. At Iowa we have Canario, Alcantara, and Caissie and at some point we either gotta give 1 or more of these a legit shot in Chicago or use them in a trade. I think it's becoming obvious they don't have a path for Canario as he hardly plays when he comes up so he may need to be moved for a bullpen piece that has options or something.
Some trades will need to happen if they want to re-tool the roster. We have internal options for 2B if Nico is part of a deal and Catcher is a spot that could be upgraded as Bethancourt can be optioned to Iowa. Still could upgrade at 1B and 3B but if you do then you have to decide what the plan is with Busch or Paredes going forward too. Not going to speculate the possibility of getting Happ or Suzuki to waive their no trade clauses because I just don't see that happening so there is no point assuming it could happen. Have to go into the offseason assuming the 3 OF plus possibly Bellinger will all be on he 2025 roster barring some unforeseen development where Happ or Suzuki allows them to shop around and waive a NTC for certain teams.
Pitchers:
SP: Steele, Shota, Taillon, Assad
SP that will be tendered but may or may not wind up on opening day roster in some kind of role: Wicks, Wesneski, Kilian
RP: no one under contract but several will be back because of pre-arb and arbitration tenders. My rough guess is: Brown, Little, Miller, Thompson, Hodge, Pearson, Paredes
Free agents or options that will be gone: Hendricks, Smyly, Lopez (wouldn't mind him back)
Likely non-tenders: Alzolay, Almonte, Merryweather, Brewer, Roberts
There is an obvious need and space available to go after a top end starting pitcher. The bullpen is anyone's guess who is back, I could be off on some of my non-tender guesses but of those Almonte might be the most likely to be retained if he is healthy? Brewer is a no brainer cut, Alzolay's injury makes him a likely cut, and I don't think Roberts and Merryweather looked good enough to keep around if you want to open up some bullpen spots to bring in some proven late inning guys.
On the 60 day IL right now:
Almonte
Alzolay
Brewer
Brown
Little
Merryweather
Madrigal
Brennan Davis
All these guys either have to be added back to the 40 man or DFA this offseason. I think Alzolay Brewer Merryweather Madrigal and Davis will all be likely 40 man roster casualties based of the injury issues alone. Will be interesting to see what they do with Almonte but Brown and Little will be retained for sure. A link to the 40 man roster: 40-Man Roster | Chicago Cubs (mlb.com) there are other guys down in the minors that will likely get cut from the 40 man too especially with the pitchers. Mervis is another guy that either needs to be moved in a trade or he could be a possible 40 man casualty too.
Position players:
C: Amaya, Bethancourt
1B; Busch
2B: Hoerner
3B: Paredes
SS: Swanson
OF: Happ, PCA, Suzuki
Bench/40 man roster guys with MLB service: Vazquez Alcantara
Options or possible non-tender candidates: Bellinger (player option) Tauchman, Wisdom, Madrigal, Mastrobuoni
Position player thoughts: my gut feeling is Bellinger opts in which clogs the OF picture again. Madrigal certainly will be non-tendered and I think Wisdom likely will be tendered too. I have nothing against Tauchman but he can't be optioned to Iowa so I would not be surprised if he is non-tendered too because of all the OF we have in the picture both on the big league roster and knocking on the door at Iowa. I didn't put Brennen Davis on the list but given his injury woes I have a feeling he will be a 40 man causality as they need to clear spots to protect guys from the Rule 5 draft. At Iowa we have Canario, Alcantara, and Caissie and at some point we either gotta give 1 or more of these a legit shot in Chicago or use them in a trade. I think it's becoming obvious they don't have a path for Canario as he hardly plays when he comes up so he may need to be moved for a bullpen piece that has options or something.
Some trades will need to happen if they want to re-tool the roster. We have internal options for 2B if Nico is part of a deal and Catcher is a spot that could be upgraded as Bethancourt can be optioned to Iowa. Still could upgrade at 1B and 3B but if you do then you have to decide what the plan is with Busch or Paredes going forward too. Not going to speculate the possibility of getting Happ or Suzuki to waive their no trade clauses because I just don't see that happening so there is no point assuming it could happen. Have to go into the offseason assuming the 3 OF plus possibly Bellinger will all be on he 2025 roster barring some unforeseen development where Happ or Suzuki allows them to shop around and waive a NTC for certain teams.
Pitchers:
SP: Steele, Shota, Taillon, Assad
SP that will be tendered but may or may not wind up on opening day roster in some kind of role: Wicks, Wesneski, Kilian
RP: no one under contract but several will be back because of pre-arb and arbitration tenders. My rough guess is: Brown, Little, Miller, Thompson, Hodge, Pearson, Paredes
Free agents or options that will be gone: Hendricks, Smyly, Lopez (wouldn't mind him back)
Likely non-tenders: Alzolay, Almonte, Merryweather, Brewer, Roberts
There is an obvious need and space available to go after a top end starting pitcher. The bullpen is anyone's guess who is back, I could be off on some of my non-tender guesses but of those Almonte might be the most likely to be retained if he is healthy? Brewer is a no brainer cut, Alzolay's injury makes him a likely cut, and I don't think Roberts and Merryweather looked good enough to keep around if you want to open up some bullpen spots to bring in some proven late inning guys.
On the 60 day IL right now:
Almonte
Alzolay
Brewer
Brown
Little
Merryweather
Madrigal
Brennan Davis
All these guys either have to be added back to the 40 man or DFA this offseason. I think Alzolay Brewer Merryweather Madrigal and Davis will all be likely 40 man roster casualties based of the injury issues alone. Will be interesting to see what they do with Almonte but Brown and Little will be retained for sure. A link to the 40 man roster: 40-Man Roster | Chicago Cubs (mlb.com) there are other guys down in the minors that will likely get cut from the 40 man too especially with the pitchers. Mervis is another guy that either needs to be moved in a trade or he could be a possible 40 man casualty too.
Key points from Jed's presser for those who missed it
- Reiterated his point that his philosophy is building a team that outperforms their expectations, but admitted he needs to build a team which projects for more than 83 wins.
- Implied Bellinger will be opting out
- Does not have interest in going all in for one year (maybe thinking Juan Soto trade from last offseason?)
- Projects Michael Busch to win multiple GG's at 1B
- Admits he dropped the ball on the bullpen and will be a focus of improvement this offseason
- Indicated star players should come internally from the organization; follow-up asked if he thinks star players can come externally, and he said this is possible.
- Reiterated his point that his philosophy is building a team that outperforms their expectations, but admitted he needs to build a team which projects for more than 83 wins.
- Implied Bellinger will be opting out
- Does not have interest in going all in for one year (maybe thinking Juan Soto trade from last offseason?)
- Projects Michael Busch to win multiple GG's at 1B
- Admits he dropped the ball on the bullpen and will be a focus of improvement this offseason
- Indicated star players should come internally from the organization; follow-up asked if he thinks star players can come externally, and he said this is possible.
Ungh, this seems like another offseason of the status quo especially with that "his philosophy is building a team that outperforms their expectations" line. Basically admitting they are going to be cheap and hope the team they put out there does better than they likely will not. If they want to build stars from inside the organization then quit acquiring prospects that you are basically blocking their path to Chicago lime they've done with their OF. Signed Bellinger and gave Happ an extension with a NTC when you already had Suzuki with a NTC too. That's on the front office who created this situation. Thankfully PCA looks like he is going to be a stud but unless they trade away some guys or create some position battles I dont see how this isn't Jed basically admitting we'll likely see nearly the same team again in 2025 with maybe some bullpen shopping as the main offseason additions.
There are already strong rumors of the cubs being on the high end SP market, I think Fried is the fit. Hopefully Belli opts out. Address the pen, lots of bats near mlb ready that could be used in a trade.
I think the cubs will be pretty busy
I think the cubs will be pretty busy
Did Jed confirm that we wound up going over the tax threshold this season and by how much? Another failure on his part, no way we should have gone over with a team that finished 6 games out of the wild card. It was pretty obvious at the trade deadline this team probably was not going to make the playoffs and he had options to dump a salary in a trade even if it didn't bring much back.
What was the context with Bellinger? I hadn't heard anyone talking about that.
Edit: I see Brett said that too over at Bleacher Nation
Cubs are behind only the Orioles in arb-eligible players. Here’s our list and their projected value per MLB Trade Rumors. I’ve bolded who I think we let walk:
Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM
Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5MM
Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9MM
Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3MM
Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9MM
Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3MM
Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3MM
Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM
Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM
Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9MM
Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4MM
Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K
Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K
Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM
Yency Almonte (5.143): $2.2MM
Christian Bethancourt (5.023): $2.5MM
Mike Tauchman (4.143): $2.9MM
Julian Merryweather (4.109): $1.3MM
Nick Madrigal (4.087): $1.9MM
Patrick Wisdom (4.058): $3MM
Adbert Alzolay (4.050): $2.3MM
Trey Wingenter (4.049): $1.4MM
Nate Pearson (4.005): $1.4MM
Isaac Paredes (3.160): $6.9MM
Justin Steele (3.143): $6.4MM
Jimmy Herget (3.069): $900K
Colten Brewer (3.063): $800K
Keegan Thompson (3.006): $1MM
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