***Official 2024 Chicago Cubs Thread***

Clonefan32

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Key points from Jed's presser for those who missed it

- Reiterated his point that his philosophy is building a team that outperforms their expectations, but admitted he needs to build a team which projects for more than 83 wins.
- Implied Bellinger will be opting out
- Does not have interest in going all in for one year (maybe thinking Juan Soto trade from last offseason?)
- Projects Michael Busch to win multiple GG's at 1B
- Admits he dropped the ball on the bullpen and will be a focus of improvement this offseason
- Indicated star players should come internally from the organization; follow-up asked if he thinks star players can come externally, and he said this is possible.

I can't begin to explain how much the bolded ****** me off. Instead of spending on guys we know are good, we are going to continue to go cheap and just hope we get lucky. Solid plan for a 4 billion dollar organization.
 

CYdTracked

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I can't begin to explain how much the bolded ****** me off. Instead of spending on guys we know are good, we are going to continue to go cheap and just hope we get lucky. Solid plan for a 4 billion dollar organization.
That irked me too when I read that. If that is his plan just more of a reason why he needs to go. Theo had a very clear plan when they built the 2016 team. Heard David Kaplan tell this story before, Theo went to the Ricketts and said they needed to gut the roster and stockpile the farm system with positional talent because the farm system was bad and the talent at the MLB level was not great either. So they sold off what they could for a couple seasons while focusing on getting the best positional players in the draft too. The plan was to develop positional talent that was cost controlled then when they were ready to compete they would go out and buy pitching to finish the roster. Well they got part of the pitching through a deadline deal in 2013 in the form of Arrieta and Strop for Scott Feldman and Steve Clevenger. Cubs capitalized on flipping Feldman who was on a cheap 1 year deal and having a good season and Arrieta was struggling with walks at the time and was considered a project. Hendricks came to the Cubs as a prospect as part of a 2012 trade of Ryan Dempster. Fast forward a bit to 2015, the Cubs sign Jon Lester to a big 6 year deal in late 2014 knowing the roster was close to competing. Leading up to the 2016 run the Cubs signed John Lackey and some bullpen pieces like Travis Wood and traded for Chapman and Montgomery at the deadline to bolster the bullpen.

Right now I really don't know what Jed's vision is and doesn't seem like he does either. We sold off the big 3 core in 2021 to restock the farm system and that brought back Canario, Kilian, Alcantara, and PCA as the main returns. Caissie is the lone guy from the Darvish trade that has panned out and they have done a decent job drafting as there are potential big impact guys like Shaw, Horton, Triantos, Cam Smith, and international signing Ballesteros. Problem is what is the plan with some of these guys as there are not opportunities in the near future for some of them in Chicago. Either need to move some to address another need or clear a spot to allow them to get a fair shot when they are ready. It seems pretty clear Jed either needs to spend on quality players in free agency or trade some of the prospect capital he's stocked up to accomplish that. Running basically the same roster out again with maybe some cheap additions just like they did last year is not going to move things forward, especially with the mindset that you hope those guys overperform their projections. If they don't you are stuck with the same flawed, medicore roster that can't make the playoffs.
 

BigJCy

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Hope the Cubs Front Office don't think that the 2 month slump was just some kind of fluke and decide to pretty much stand pat.

 

ISUCubswin

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My video game moves as the FO - no I do not expect the FO to make any of these moves, though I do think they’re all possible. Salaries based on Spotrac predictions

Starting Pitching ($70 MM)
Burnes (Signed FA, $32 MM)
Steele ($8 MM?)
Taillon ($17 MM)
Imanaga ($13 MM)
Brown (?)

Relief Pitching ($20 MM)
LR - Assad
LR - Ryan Yarborough (Signed FA - $5 MM)
MR - Nate Pearson
MR - Enoli Paredes
MR - Tyson Miller
SU - Kirby Yates (Signed FA - $5 MM)
SU - Porter Hodge
CL - Mason Miller (TRADE, with Shea Langliers - for Traintos, Alcantara, Wicks, Aliendo)

C ($5ish MM?)
Amaya
Langliers (See above trade)

INF ($84 MM)
Vlad ($30 MM TRADE - Hoerner, Paredes, Canario)
Alonso (FA - $25 MM)

Swanson ($26 MM)
Shaw (Platoon 2B/3B)
Busch ($1 MM?)
Mastro

OF ($40 MM)
Caissie
Happ ($20 MM)
Suzuki ($17 MM)
PCA
Tauchman ($3 MM)

Total cost: $216 MM, $25 MM shy of tier one.

With the extra $$, I’m seeing if I can buy an extra year or two of PCA and talking extension.
 

04clone

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My video game moves as the FO - no I do not expect the FO to make any of these moves, though I do think they’re all possible. Salaries based on Spotrac predictions

Starting Pitching ($70 MM)
Burnes (Signed FA, $32 MM)
Steele ($8 MM?)
Taillon ($17 MM)
Imanaga ($13 MM)
Brown (?)

Relief Pitching ($20 MM)
LR - Assad
LR - Ryan Yarborough (Signed FA - $5 MM)
MR - Nate Pearson
MR - Enoli Paredes
MR - Tyson Miller
SU - Kirby Yates (Signed FA - $5 MM)
SU - Porter Hodge
CL - Mason Miller (TRADE, with Shea Langliers - for Traintos, Alcantara, Wicks, Aliendo)

C ($5ish MM?)
Amaya
Langliers (See above trade)

INF ($84 MM)
Vlad ($30 MM TRADE - Hoerner, Paredes, Canario)
Alonso (FA - $25 MM)

Swanson ($26 MM)
Shaw (Platoon 2B/3B)
Busch ($1 MM?)
Mastro

OF ($40 MM)
Caissie
Happ ($20 MM)
Suzuki ($17 MM)
PCA
Tauchman ($3 MM)

Total cost: $216 MM, $25 MM shy of tier one.

With the extra $$, I’m seeing if I can buy an extra year or two of PCA and talking extension.
I like a lot of these moves, but I don't really understand the Pete Alonso move (and this post is far from the only place I've seen the suggestion). The Cubs already have a younger, cheaper version of Pete Alonso named Michael Busch. Their offensive numbers are pretty similar, and Busch actually had the better year by WAR.
 

1UNI2ISU

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I like a lot of these moves, but I don't really understand the Pete Alonso move (and this post is far from the only place I've seen the suggestion). The Cubs already have a younger, cheaper version of Pete Alonso named Michael Busch. Their offensive numbers are pretty similar, and Busch actually had the better year by WAR.
Agreed. Why spend 30x the money for an older, less athletic, worse defensive version of what you've already got? Busch is going to grow into that 35 home run guy and I have very little interest in paying Alonso to be a DH only guy in his age 35-36 seasons especially with the bat first/no glove guys you've loaded the minor leagues with.

I also think the price tag on Miller is going to be astronomical and I don't think the A's even consider it without Horton, Shaw or Smith in the deal and that's a no-go.
 

ISUCubswin

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I would rather have Bellinger stay for flexibility at 1B and RF, but I don't think he will, so here are 3 reasons why I listed Alonso

1) You get a guaranteed everyday 4-hitter, which we have not had since 2021. This removes pressure from guys like Suzuki and Busch, while pushing guys like Swanson further down the order, where they belong. Busch hit .291 hitting in the 6/7/8/9 spots this year, as opposed to .206 when in the 2/3/4/5 spots. He averaged a homerun 5.6% of the time in the bottom half, as opposed to 2.6% of the time in the top half.

2) The idea isn't that he is a Busch replacement - instead, he creates more positional flexibility for Busch. I would then anticipate Busch play more at 2B. This, then, eliminates the pressure on Shaw of HAVING to be the man.

3) He is ridiculously intense (literally gets made fun of for how serious he takes the HR Derby.) I think that is needed a bit more in our clubhouse.
 
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cycloneman003

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My video game moves as the FO - no I do not expect the FO to make any of these moves, though I do think they’re all possible. Salaries based on Spotrac predictions

Starting Pitching ($70 MM)
Burnes (Signed FA, $32 MM)
Steele ($8 MM?)
Taillon ($17 MM)
Imanaga ($13 MM)
Brown (?)

Relief Pitching ($20 MM)
LR - Assad
LR - Ryan Yarborough (Signed FA - $5 MM)
MR - Nate Pearson
MR - Enoli Paredes
MR - Tyson Miller
SU - Kirby Yates (Signed FA - $5 MM)
SU - Porter Hodge
CL - Mason Miller (TRADE, with Shea Langliers - for Traintos, Alcantara, Wicks, Aliendo)

C ($5ish MM?)
Amaya
Langliers (See above trade)

INF ($84 MM)
Vlad ($30 MM TRADE - Hoerner, Paredes, Canario)
Alonso (FA - $25 MM)

Swanson ($26 MM)
Shaw (Platoon 2B/3B)
Busch ($1 MM?)
Mastro

OF ($40 MM)
Caissie
Happ ($20 MM)
Suzuki ($17 MM)
PCA
Tauchman ($3 MM)

Total cost: $216 MM, $25 MM shy of tier one.

With the extra $$, I’m seeing if I can buy an extra year or two of PCA and talking extension.
Both trades proposed probably cost a whole lot more from the Cubs that you listed, unfortunately.
 

ISUCubswin

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Both trades proposed probably cost a whole lot more from the Cubs that you listed, unfortunately.
Agree that Miller could.

Vlad won’t be as expensive as many expect - he wants to play 3B, he only has 1 year left, he will likely cost $30 MM, and even Toronto fans are speculating he will be gone for whatever they can get.

Why the Cubs should get him - pay him $30 MM to see if he can play 3B - if he can, you had a year to extend him. If he can’t, Cam Smith will be ready by 2026.
 

1UNI2ISU

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I also think a lot of this off-season depends on what they really think of Ballesteros.

If they think he's a primary DH that really limits your flexibility. The dream scenario is him being able to catch 3 days a week but I worry he's not going to stick behind the plate.

If he's at his catching ceiling, he's up by June 1 because AAA isn't challenging the bat.
 

Cyforce

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I also think a lot of this off-season depends on what they really think of Ballesteros.

If they think he's a primary DH that really limits your flexibility. The dream scenario is him being able to catch 3 days a week but I worry he's not going to stick behind the plate.

If he's at his catching ceiling, he's up by June 1 because AAA isn't challenging the bat.
Personally I don’t think Ballesteros is a full or even part time catcher yet. Yet I could see a scenario where he DH quite a bit then ph and stay in long enough to get a second AB. If Busch could be serviceable at 2nd and 3rd this really opens up options of where you can bring him in.
This of course would require carrying three catchers.

My guess is they start him in Iowa with the hope he can become usable on a regular basis behind the plate.
 
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ISUCubswin

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Hoyer and Counsell have both said their philosophy is one guy shouldn't be on the roster solely to DH as it blocks the regular position players from being able to DH on mini-rest days. Happ DH'd 8 times last year just to have a day off on the field.

My guess is if they believe Ballestros is going to be limited to DHing, they will be shopping him to a team that thinks they can find a spot for him defensively.

I don't hate the idea of him playing 1B, as he's done so in the minors, but he's 5'7" which is really demanding perfection from your defensive players lol
 

Cyforce

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Hoyer and Counsell have both said their philosophy is one guy shouldn't be on the roster solely to DH as it blocks the regular position players from being able to DH on mini-rest days. Happ DH'd 8 times last year just to have a day off on the field.

My guess is if they believe Ballestros is going to be limited to DHing, they will be shopping him to a team that thinks they can find a spot for him defensively.

I don't hate the idea of him playing 1B, as he's done so in the minors, but he's 5'7" which is really demanding perfection from your defensive players lol
What management said is all well and good but I believe they were referring to spending on a vet like JD Martinez. A cheap slugger with years and years of control isn’t a commodity we’re looking to deal away.
 

ISUCubswin

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Rays have reportedly said they are open to dealing from their SPs this offseason.

Not that I think it happens, but what would thoughts be on buying a FA SP AND trading for a guy like Baz?

1. Burnes/Flaherty/Fried
2. Steele
3. Baz
4. Imanaga
5. Taillon

You then take guys like Brown, Wesneski, Wicks, and Horton and provide them 2 years to prepare for a fulltime starting gig after proving they can handle the bullpen.
 

ISUCubswin

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I also don't want to put too much stock into the playoffs but there are three big time takeaways for me

1) You can not bank on your elite closer to throw more than 1 inning. Let them stick to the routine they're already elite at. So have more than on guy you can trust in the bullpen.

2) You must have 9 innings of elite pitching.

3) Get TEAM-oriented, high IQ, basic fundamentals hitters. Watching Santander look like Christopher Morel swinging for the lake when the Orioles just needed him on first base is exactly the type of guy we DON'T need on this team.
 

CYdTracked

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I also don't want to put too much stock into the playoffs but there are three big time takeaways for me

1) You can not bank on your elite closer to throw more than 1 inning. Let them stick to the routine they're already elite at. So have more than on guy you can trust in the bullpen.

2) You must have 9 innings of elite pitching.

3) Get TEAM-oriented, high IQ, basic fundamentals hitters. Watching Santander look like Christopher Morel swinging for the lake when the Orioles just needed him on first base is exactly the type of guy we DON'T need on this team.
#1 nearly bit us in 2016 a few times. Maddon rode Chapman as much as he could and the games he was asked to go more than 1 inning felt like we were playing with fire as he wasn't as sharp the 2nd inning. In the end it worked out but Chapman had nothing left in the tank game 7.

Get at least 1 top of the rotation guy and a couple elite back end of the bullpen guys and our staff should be fine. Not against getting another SP too and trading some prospects to get it but Jed needs to step up and make some bold deals one way or another. No more of this playing cheap BS and hoping to exceed expectations. Unfortunately I don't have confidence that we'll be big spenders or make some bold trades and I hope I'm wrong about that.
 

ISUCubswin

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Wave them Home Willie not coming back next season.


I’ve heard he was a fun guy but this was probably the right move. Seemed more like a Freshman Baseball coach with how overly aggressive he was at times over someone who gets the value of each and every run.
 

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