I’ll preface by saying I don’t think we get Ohtani, though I’d give my left nut for him. Money, location, and competitiveness were his 3 reasons the cubs didn’t work out the first time. Location is unfixable, unless his buddy Seiya can convince him otherwise.
You’ll have, at a minimum, $70 million to spend this off-season before hitting the second tier. I would guess closer to $80 million given not a lot of arbitration eligible talent. This doesn’t include $7 million “saved” when Bellinger opts out, $5 million saved if Boxberger opts out, and the $21 million/$16 million saved if Stroman or Hendricks are opted out.
If you sign Bellinger, based on your current MLB talent and current prospect projections, you have outfield and every infield spot except 3B pretty much covered. Jed wants to build the pen through the farm.
You have no reason you can’t sign Ohtani on top of that. You would certainly be over the first threshold for the luxury tax, but you’ll have a lot of dead money alone the following year coming off the books that you wouldn’t need to worry much about the tax penalty hitting 3 consecutive years.