***Official 2021 Weather Thread***
- Thread starter ClonesTwenty1
- Start date
Read this in Paul Douglas blog (local meteorologist celebrity) and though immediately of CF.
"I beseech you Paul, how many inches!" That never gets old, by the way. My favorite meteorology college professor was right. Americans are preoccupied with inches, demanding a level of specificity and precision the science can't provide. So we give a range of inches (if I say 2-4 inches you'll probably remember 4) and a much-borrowed snowfall rating scale: nuisance-plowable-crippling.
So it may or may not snow but we are not sure when, where or how much.
People also don't understand what forecasting means. I'm no expert, but my meteorology prof in college taught us that a "50% chance of rain" really means "of all the days we've collected data with conditions that are similar to those expected tomorrow, it rained about half the time."
So this weekend's event seems to be fizzling a bit for central IA? Looks like 2" or less based on the latest NWS graphic.
Also some % forecast is based on area. Like, “There’s a 50% of rain somewhere in a 30 mile radius of your location”
It is actually two different systems. One Saturday night-Sunday morning and then Sunday Evening or so-Monday.
Also because satellite images (especially modern hi-res ones) are awesome.
That’s a good piece of info too. Also, understanding probabilities is important. People get all worked up when it’s a 90% chance of precipitation and it doesn’t fall. That’s how probabilities work! There was a small chance it wouldn’t rain, and it didn’t!
Active Period of Winter Weather Starting This Weekend - ISCN Weather
An active stretch of winter weather looks to bring several days of snow to the state of Iowa beginning Saturday afternoon.
www.iowachase.com
Sounds like central Iowa could be in the 4" range for the first storm system and another 4" on Monday. They also have mentioned snow on Wednesday now also. Better get another batch of oil/gas mixed up for the old single stage.
thought I heard Ed Wilson discuss this once... might’ve been on one of the after dark podcasts
Well, this morning the local NWS is calling for 2-4 in the DSM area when all is said and done by Tuesday. However the TWC has their GFS model spitting out 12-18" and the Euro 8-12". They have Omaha getting either 24" or 12-18" depending on model. I am assuming the NWS thinks the dry air wins out. Will be interesting.
Weather gurus: How does this correlate to central Iowa late next week, and early the week of Feb 1? Looks like a BEAST:
This is no doubt one of the most insane model runs I've ever seen from the GFS.
365 inches of snow, 23" of liquid equivalent. Through just Day 10. https://t.co/RZlTQ9zZpH
This is no doubt one of the most insane model runs I've ever seen from the GFS.
365 inches of snow, 23" of liquid equivalent. Through just Day 10. https://t.co/RZlTQ9zZpH
Having cousins in Cali. I have seen those amounts in a season i.e. 30-40 feet in the Sierra's. But not in a single storm. Or even 10 day event.
