Not a terrible breakdown:
"The Cyclones are 24-4. All 4 losses have come within Big 12 play and all 4 losses have come on the road. Unfortunately for Tech, we play them at home where they have been absolutely dominant. In fact, I believe they only have 2 conference home game wins decided by less than 12 points in Baylor (won by 3) and Houston (won by 3). They have mostly blown teams out on their home court.
This game is arguably as tough on paper as the Arizona game, except Iowa State shoots it better from outside. Going about it without Toppin is bad timing, but Tech has looked pretty solid in 2 games without him. It helps that the last 2 games we've averaged 11.5 made 3 pointers at a 43.3% rate. If we continue even close to that pace, we should be in striking distance Saturday.
What stands in our way is 2 really strong forwards in Momcilovic (6'8" 225) and Jefferson (6'9" 240). These guys combined are averaging 34.0 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 7.2 APG, and shoot the ball well from distance. Specifically, Momcilovic is shooting the cover off the ball--50.7% from 3 on 205 attempts (104 makes). In fact, he's probably the only guy in American shooting the ball better from 3 than Donovan Atwell--which is crazy to say out loud. I'm not sure who you ask to guard Momcilovic--he's a physical mismatch for just about anyone. I'd probably start with Watts on him for size, but if he gets loose on the perimeter a few times, maybe you switch and see if Atwell can stay in front of him. The rotation of bigs for Tech will be crucial in slowing down Jefferson in the paint. Iowa State does have a couple other rotational bigs that are both 6'11" that are more role players, but they will keep us busy in the paint. Lipsey is a really good lead guard averaging 13.0 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 5.2 APG, and a jaw-dropping 2.2 SPG--which is elite. The one thing Lipsey is NOT is an outside shooter--where he's only averaging 28.6% on the season (not good). It's going to be really critical to not have unforced errors when we have the ball, because Iowa State likes to cause pressure and havoc when on defense and they are really good at making teams uncomfortable.
This is probably a game where we need Anderson to go for 20+, Atwell to go for 15+, Watts and Petty to combine for 20+, and will need some help from some unknowns (maybe Moseley or Horner). I think this one will be tough to get--I'm thinking we go into this game being about a 5.5 point underdog (my early guess).
I think we fight really hard but come up just short. Prediction Texas Tech 76 Iowa State 81"
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