mred's 2015 Big 12 Bracket Generator

[chuckd4735]

1. Kansas (15 - 3)
2. Iowa State (12 - 6)
3. Oklahoma (11 - 7) Defeated West Virginia and Texas based on round-robin record.
4. West Virginia (11 - 7) Defeated Texas and lost to Oklahoma based on round-robin record.
5. Texas (11 - 7) Lost to Oklahoma and West Virginia based on round-robin record.
6. Kansas State (9 - 9) With Baylor, defeated Oklahoma State based on record against #2 teams. Defeated Baylor based on conference road record.
7. Baylor (9 - 9) With Kansas State, defeated Oklahoma State based on record against #2 teams. Lost to Kansas State based on conference road record.
8. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) Lost to Baylor and Kansas State based on record against #2 teams.
9. TCU (2 - 16)
10. Texas Tech (1 - 17)

 

[ISUCubswin]

1. Kansas (15 - 3)
2. Oklahoma (14 - 4) Defeated Texas based on head-to-head record.
3. Texas (14 - 4) Lost to Oklahoma based on head-to-head record.
4. West Virginia (12 - 6) Defeated Iowa State based on record against #1 teams.
5. Iowa State (12 - 6) Lost to West Virginia based on record against #1 teams.
6. Baylor (11 - 7)
7. Oklahoma State (5 - 13)
8. Kansas State (3 - 15)
9. TCU (2 - 16) Defeated Texas Tech based on draw.
10. Texas Tech (2 - 16) Lost to TCU based on draw.

Baylor won't win that many and Okie State won't lose that many but it's how it came out.

Pretty good first prediction. Only failure I see it Texas has to go undefeated to keep that record.

 

[chuckd4735]

Pretty good first prediction. Only failure I see it Texas has to go undefeated to keep that record.

Also, KSU would have to somehow win -2 games the rest of the season, OSU could only win one more, and OU would have to win out.

 

[cyclones500]

1. Kansas (14 - 4)
2. Iowa State (12 - 6) Defeated Oklahoma based on record against #4 teams.
3. Oklahoma (12 - 6) Lost to Iowa State based on record against #4 teams.
4. West Virginia (11 - 7) Defeated Texas based on record against #1 teams.
5. Texas (11 - 7) Lost to West Virginia based on record against #1 teams.
6. Baylor (9 - 9) Defeated Oklahoma State based on record against #2 teams.
7. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) Lost to Baylor based on record against #2 teams.
8. Kansas State (6 - 12)
9. TCU (4 - 14)
10. Texas Tech (2 - 16)

 

[twocoach]

Pretty good first prediction. Only failure I see it Texas has to go undefeated to keep that record.

Meh, don't care.

 

[Dale]

For the fun(?) of it, I ran a 10,000 Monte Carlo simulation based on Massey's win percentages for the rest of the Big 12 season. With the caveat that Massey's numbers are a little high on Kansas in my opinion (5th in the country), this is who it had winning the conference:

Kansas outright: 64%
Kansas shared: 16%
West Virginia outright: 8%
Iowa State outright: 5% (also shared 8%)
shared (not with Kansas): 3%
Oklahoma outright: 2%
Everyone else outright: 2%

However, if ISU beats KU @ KU, the numbers change dramatically:

Kansas outright: 42%
Kansas shared: 21%
Iowa State outright: 15% (also shared 16%)
West Virginia outright: 11%
shared (not with Kansas): 6%
Oklahoma outright: 2%
Everyone else outright: 4%

That's actually understating ISU's numbers a little bit, since their rating in Massey's system would also undoubtedly go up (and Kansas' would go down).

Other semi-interesting numbers (on the original data set):

Average number of wins to win (or share) the conference title: 13.8
Percentage of the time ISU remains TT's only conference win: 17%
Percentage of the time ISU remains KU's only conference loss: 1%
Percentage of the time six teams tied for the conference title: 0.02%

 

[HGPuck]

Catching Kansas

There seems to be two ways we could still catch Kansas in the conference title race. If they drop one home game (or @TT) and also lose at West Virginia. Or if we can win the game in Lawrence.

If either of those two scenarios play out we will essentially be on level footing (their home loss making up for the TT game and Baylor/WV balancing out or being 2-0 against them making up for their win at Baylor and likely win at TT). Assuming both teams win all other home games, it will come down to who has the better record in road games against TCU, OSU, KSU, Oklahoma, and Texas. Kansas is 1-0 in those games so far (@Texas) and we have yet to play one.

It is almost impossible to imagine a scenario where they win all of their home games and at West Virginia, because we would need to be two games better than them in the five road games listed (when they are already 1-0).

 

[BallSoHard4Cy]

A win tomorrow will change a lot for our conference out look. Basically erases the Tech loss.

 

[bigdaddykane]

1. Kansas (13 - 5)
2. Oklahoma (12 - 6)
3. Iowa State (11 - 7) Defeated West Virginia and Kansas State based on round-robin record.
4. West Virginia (11 - 7) Defeated Kansas State and lost to Iowa State based on round-robin record.
5. Kansas State (11 - 7) Lost to Iowa State and West Virginia based on round-robin record.
6. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) Defeated Baylor and Texas based on record against #1 teams.
7. Baylor (9 - 9) With Texas, lost to Oklahoma State based on record against #1 teams. Defeated Texas based on record against #2 teams.
8. Texas (9 - 9) With Baylor, lost to Oklahoma State based on record against #1 teams. Lost to Baylor based on record against #2 teams.
9. TCU (3 - 15)
10. Texas Tech (2 - 16)

 

[twocoach]

1. Kansas (13 - 5) 2. Oklahoma (12 - 6) 3. Iowa State (11 - 7) Defeated West Virginia and Kansas State based on round-robin record. 4. West Virginia (11 - 7) Defeated Kansas State and lost to Iowa State based on round-robin record. 5. Kansas State (11 - 7) Lost to Iowa State and West Virginia based on round-robin record. 6. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) Defeated Baylor and Texas based on record against #1 teams. 7. Baylor (9 - 9) With Texas, lost to Oklahoma State based on record against #1 teams. Defeated Texas based on record against #2 teams. 8. Texas (9 - 9) With Baylor, lost to Oklahoma State based on record against #1 teams. Lost to Baylor based on record against #2 teams. 9. TCU (3 - 15) 10. Texas Tech (2 - 16)

You're fun. Don't ever stop posting here.

 

[chuckd4735]

I think both KSU and OSU have a good chance of going on a losing streak coming up here.

Starting this Saturday, KSU hosts Texas, then go to WVU, then hosts OU. They then go to TCU and Baylor, before hosting Kansas and Iowa State, and finish the season at Texas. If they lose those first three, I could see the losing mentality start to kick in, and if they lose that game at TCU, they could lose out.

OSU goes to Texas this week, and hosts KU this Saturday. They then go to Baylor and TCU before hosting Iowa State and West Virginia. They then finish at Tech, hosts TCU and at WV.

I see it playing out as follows...

1. Kansas (15 - 3)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. Iowa State (12 - 6) Defeated West Virginia based on head-to-head record.
4. West Virginia (12 - 6) Lost to Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
5. Baylor (10 - 8) Defeated Texas based on record against #2 teams.
6. Texas (10 - 8) Lost to Baylor based on record against #2 teams.
7. Kansas State (7 - 11)
8. Oklahoma State (6 - 12)
9. TCU (4 - 14)
10. Texas Tech (1 - 17)

 

[CyForPresident]

I'll say this, if OSU can somehow upset KU on Saturday, things will get very, very interesting.

 

[Wesley]

1. Kansas (13 - 5)
2. Oklahoma (12 - 6)
3. Iowa State (11 - 7) Defeated West Virginia and Kansas State based on round-robin record.
4. West Virginia (11 - 7) Defeated Kansas State and lost to Iowa State based on round-robin record.
5. Kansas State (11 - 7) Lost to Iowa State and West Virginia based on round-robin record.
6. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) Defeated Baylor and Texas based on record against #1 teams.
7. Baylor (9 - 9) With Texas, lost to Oklahoma State based on record against #1 teams. Defeated Texas based on record against #2 teams.
8. Texas (9 - 9) With Baylor, lost to Oklahoma State based on record against #1 teams. Lost to Baylor based on record against #2 teams.
9. TCU (3 - 15)
10. Texas Tech (2 - 16)

Two plus seven plus one more in B12 tournament means total ten losses and an eight seed. We need to win more games.

 

[cyclones500]

1. Kansas (14 - 4)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. Iowa State (12 - 6)
4. West Virginia (11 - 7)
5. Texas (10 - 8)
6. Baylor (9 - 9)
7. Oklahoma State (8 - 10)
8. Kansas State (7 - 11)
9. TCU (3 - 15) Defeated Texas Tech based on head-to-head record.
10. Texas Tech (3 - 15) Lost to TCU based on head-to-head record.

 

[cmjh10]

1. Kansas (15 - 3)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. Iowa State (12 - 6) Defeated West Virginia based on head-to-head record.
4. West Virginia (12 - 6) Lost to Iowa State based on head-to-head record.
5. Baylor (10 - 8) Defeated Texas based on record against #2 teams.
6. Texas (10 - 8) Lost to Baylor based on record against #2 teams.
7. Kansas State (7 - 11) Defeated Oklahoma State based on record against #2 teams.
8. Oklahoma State (7 - 11) Lost to Kansas State based on record against #2 teams.
9. TCU (3 - 15)
10. Texas Tech (1 - 17)

 

[chuckd4735]

Updated after last nights game. Moved OSU up to 6, and KSU and UT down one spot.

1. Kansas (15 - 3)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. Iowa State (12 - 6)
4. West Virginia (11 - 7)
5. Baylor (10 - 8) Defeated Oklahoma State based on record against #2 teams.
6. Oklahoma State (10 - 8) Lost to Baylor based on record against #2 teams.
7. Texas (9 - 9)
8. Kansas State (5 - 13)
9. TCU (3 - 15)
10. Texas Tech (2 - 16)

 

[JRE1975]

Updated after last nights game. Moved OSU up to 6, and KSU and UT down one spot.

1. Kansas (15 - 3)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. Iowa State (12 - 6)
4. West Virginia (11 - 7)
5. Baylor (10 - 8) Defeated Oklahoma State based on record against #2 teams.
6. Oklahoma State (10 - 8) Lost to Baylor based on record against #2 teams.
7. Texas (9 - 9)
8. Kansas State (5 - 13)
9. TCU (3 - 15)
10. Texas Tech (2 - 16)

Oklahoma is only going to lose one game in the second half? I think Oklahoma, who has also been somewhat inconsistent, will lose at least 2 more, maybe 3. (I can hope!)

 

[chuckd4735]

Oklahoma is only going to lose one game in the second half? I think Oklahoma, who has also been somewhat inconsistent, will lose at least 2 more, maybe 3. (I can hope!)

I only have them losing to ISU on the road. Their only road games left are TCU, Tech, KSU and ISU. Home games are ISU, Texas, TCU and KU. Probably the easiest schedule left in the Big 12, which makes next Mondays game big for second place, IMO.

 

[cyclones500]

Updated after Feb. 4.

What a rollercoaster this Big 12 season is becoming. Intriguing, but a little bizarre.

1. Kansas (15 - 3)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. Iowa State (12 - 6)
4. West Virginia (11 - 7)
5. Baylor (9 - 9) Defeated Oklahoma State based on record against #2 teams.
6. Oklahoma State (9 - 9) Lost to Baylor based on record against #2 teams.
7. Texas (8 - 10)
8. Kansas State (7 - 11)
9. TCU (3 - 15) Defeated Texas Tech based on head-to-head record.
10. Texas Tech (3 - 15) Lost to TCU based on head-to-head record.

 

[chuckd4735]

Update with todays results...

1. Kansas (14 - 4)
2. Oklahoma (13 - 5)
3. Iowa State (12 - 6)
4. Oklahoma State (11 - 7) Defeated Baylor based on record against #1 teams.
5. Baylor (11 - 7) Lost to Oklahoma State based on record against #1 teams.
6. West Virginia (10 - 8)
7. Texas (9 - 9)
8. Kansas State (5 - 13)
9. TCU (3 - 15)
10. Texas Tech (2 - 16)