mred's 2015 Big 12 Bracket Generator

[yler4cy]

So the way I look at this is that ISU has to win Saturday to stay the 2 seed, otherwise they become the 4 seed? Then, Oklahoma has to win to put them in the 3 seed, if ISU wins, otherwise they will be the 4 and Baylor would be the 3? A lot of weird scenarios can happen.

 

[chuckd4735]

So the way I look at this is that ISU has to win Saturday to stay the 2 seed, otherwise they become the 4 seed? Then, Oklahoma has to win to put them in the 3 seed, if ISU wins, otherwise they will be the 4 and Baylor would be the 3? A lot of weird scenarios can happen.

If ISU wins Saturday, and KU loses their next 2, ISU is the 1 seed. If ISU wins Saturday and WVU loses both this week and Baylor wins Saturday, ISU is the 3 seed. Most other probable scenarios put ISU in the 2 seed, assuming they win Saturday. Even if ISU loses on Saturday, they can still get the 3 seed as long as KU beats OU. ISU can do no worse then the 5 seed, but that would take West Virginia winning in Lawrence tonight.

 

[erikbj]

If ISU wins Saturday, and KU loses their next 2, ISU is the 1 seed. If ISU wins Saturday and WVU loses both this week and Baylor wins Saturday, ISU is the 3 seed. All other scenarios put ISU in the 2 seed, assuming they win Saturday. Even if ISU loses on Saturday, they can still get the 3 seed as long as KU beats OU. ISU can do no worse then the 5 seed, but that would take West Virginia winning in Lawrence tonight.

I just want ISU to play KU again. Nothing is better than dining on Jayhawk tears.

 

[CyFan61]

So the way I look at this is that ISU has to win Saturday to stay the 2 seed, otherwise they become the 4 seed? Then, Oklahoma has to win to put them in the 3 seed, if ISU wins, otherwise they will be the 4 and Baylor would be the 3? A lot of weird scenarios can happen.

If ISU wins Saturday:

*KU loses out (vs. WVU, @ OU) = 1 seed

*WVU loses out (@ KU, vs. OSU) and BU wins Sat. (vs. TTU) and​ OU wins Sat. (vs. KU) = 3 seed

*Any other combination of scenarios = 2 seed


Correct me if I am wrong but I'm pretty sure. I didn't both running scenarios for ISU losing Saturday because it's more complicated and I wouldn't care as much if we drop that game anyway.

 

[MartyMcCy]

If ISU wins Saturday, and KU loses their next 2, ISU is the 1 seed. If ISU wins Saturday and WVU loses both this week and Baylor and OU win Saturday, ISU is the 3 seed. Most other probable scenarios put ISU in the 2 seed, assuming they win Saturday. Even if ISU loses on Saturday, they can still get the 3 seed as long as KU beats OU. ISU can do no worse then the 5 seed, but that would take West Virginia winning in Lawrence tonight.

Fixed

 

[CysRage]

If ISU wins Saturday:

*KU loses out (vs. WVU, @ OU) = 1 seed

*WVU loses out (@ KU, vs. OSU) and BU wins Sat. (vs. TTU) and​ OU wins Sat. (vs. KU) = 3 seed

*Any other combination of scenarios = 2 seed


Correct me if I am wrong but I'm pretty sure. I didn't both running scenarios for ISU losing Saturday because it's more complicated and I wouldn't care as much if we drop that game anyway.

That's crazy we still have a shot at the 1 seed after dropping 2 bad games. It would be awesome but I'm not holding my breathe on it.

 

[CyenceAK]

That's crazy we still have a shot at the 1 seed after dropping 2 bad games. It would be awesome but I'm not holding my breathe on it.

It all starts with a WVU win tonight. I would love to see it happen just for the chaos it would cause on Saturday.

 

[Hacksaw]

If ISU wins Saturday:

*KU loses out (vs. WVU, @ OU) = 1 seed

*WVU loses out (@ KU, vs. OSU) and BU wins Sat. (vs. TTU) and​ OU wins Sat. (vs. KU) = 3 seed

*Any other combination of scenarios = 2 seed


Correct me if I am wrong but I'm pretty sure.

This is exactly how I see it as well. If anyone wants the visual representation of the remaining scenarios, this is what I've put together. The game winners are on the left, the seed outcomes are on the right.

 

[MidwestZest]

Nice work Hacksaw. Phew.

So, if you assume every game is a straight up coin flip (obviously not, but for sake of statistics) There is like a 21% chance of us ending as a 4 or 5 seed.

 

[besserheimerphat]

So to summarize Hacksaw's table:

1 seed: 13% chance
2 seed: 44% chance
3 seed: 22% chance
4 seed: 16% chance
5 seed: 6% chance

But I think this is assuming each team has a 50/50 chance of winning it's final game which isn't reality. I'd guess we have a >50% chance at the 2 seed if individual game probabilities are taken into account.

 

[Hacksaw]

Here are all the remaining scenarios assuming each remaining game is a coin-flip:

Here are the remaining scenarios, weighted with the win probabilities from Sagarin's Predictor (pulled from rpiforecast.com):

 

[cyclones500]

Here is mine. I have TCU beating OSU on Wednesday, and ISU beating TCU on Saturday. All other home teams win.

1. Kansas (13 - 5)
2. Iowa State (12 - 6) Defeated Oklahoma based on record against #6 teams.
3. Oklahoma (12 - 6) Lost to Iowa State based on record against #6 teams.
4. Baylor (11 - 7) Defeated West Virginia based on head-to-head record.
5. West Virginia (11 - 7) Lost to Baylor based on head-to-head record.
6. Texas (8 - 10) Defeated Kansas State based on head-to-head record.
7. Kansas State (8 - 10) Lost to Texas based on head-to-head record.
8. Oklahoma State (7 - 11)
9. TCU (5 - 13)
10. Texas Tech (3 - 15)

This is my simulation, too.

But I've been wrong so many times in the past couple of weeks, I'm not banking on it.

 

[Hacksaw]

One more analysis, here are the potential seed & first opponent combinations (the 1 seed lists the 8 seed, the 2 seed lists the 7 seed, the 3 seed lists the 6 seed, etc):

And just the opponents, regardless of seed:

 

[MartyMcCy]

Here are all the remaining scenarios assuming each remaining game is a coin-flip:

Here are the remaining scenarios, weighted with the win probabilities from Sagarin's Predictor (pulled from rpiforecast.com):

Nice work. That took some time to put together. I usually just go to the site below for my probabilities, but I have no idea where they are drawing their numbers from.

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/iowa-st-cyclones/projections