More Pac-12 Turmoil

[Gorm]

West Virginia is a member of the Big 12 until they chose not to be. Baylor on the other hand, I could see the other Big 12 schools choosing to NOT renew the new GOR with them involved. That would be starting in year 2025 or whatever. More than likely though, the GOR is renewed in the 2021-2022 timeframe, so that it won't impact recruiting classes.

 

[cyfanatic]

Maybe the Pac 8 (??) could lead the path back toward smaller conferences? The California, Oregon and Washington schools only...could that work? Sure it is a small number of schools...but would still have a presence in massive media markets. It would include two nationally big name schools (USC and UCLA). It would allow for flexible scheduling outside of league play. They would be splitting revenues between fewer schools (like the Big 12). Just a dream I suppose as I fear conferences will still find a way to get bigger rather than smaller!

 

[CrossCyed]

I'm honestly not sure I would take any of these schools even if they inquired at this point. None of these schools have been able to maintain consistently elite programs in FB or MBB recently. And fan interest is mediocre throughout the league, hence all these revenue and TV issues. Sure you could probably grab some schools and keep things revenue neutral for the B12, but I'm not convinced any combo would be a huge net gain. It beats any G5 addition, but doing nothing can be better than picking between two bad options.

If the two Arizona schools or Colorado/Utah or UCLA/USC approached the Big 12 and we said "nah" then the Big 12 would deserve whatever happened to it.

Also it’s just easier to air fewer games. A lot of the time there are only one or two games ona weekday. Weekends they can be spaced out. It’s very possible to watch every B12 game if you’ve got the time.

Live content is still the king.

 

[Die4Cy]

The primary value in the Pac 12 is USC. If you could find a way to get them, it would be worth it. But beyond bringing one partner, maybe UCLA or Stanford, you'd be bringing more problems than the rest of the conference would be worth.

But USC is probably tied forever to the rest of that league, the cost of them leaving is too high with the sunk investments in Pac-12 Net and the value of the others is probably too low to be sustainable without them. Sort of like the Longhorn Network/Big 12 dynamic on steroids.

I bet you are going to see USC improve dramatically in the run up to the next open rights negotiation period, by hook or by crook. The PAC-12 has no good options and will be looking the other way while running interference from the NCAA. There is no time for the rest of league to do much else.

If they fail, the Pac-12 will be locking in years and years of discounted value in media inventory, compared to all the other leagues they compete against for coaches, talent, and prestige.

I'm here for it.

 

[2speedy1]

I kind of hate more than 12 team leagues because of scheduling. If you have 2 divisions with 8 or 10 teams each, then it's like you aren't really one conference, might as well just do some kind of cross-conference preferred OOC scheduling deal, like 1 FB and a couple BBall games every year. Which might be fun for the Big12 but won't help the PAC much I suppose.

Doesn't make much sense to just take the Arizonas to get to 12. You almost have to go for the LA schools. But then you are at 14. You could toss Baylor and WV out (sorry WV, just geography) to get back to 12.

UCLA, USC, ASU, AZ, TT, TCU
Texas, OU, OkSt, ISU, KSU, KU

That would even give you the unbalanced divisions like the SEC or B1G. And OU or UT could go beat up on a big name (but likely overrated) USC or UCLA team in the CCG and get into the CFP easier.

The other 8 Pac12 teams could add Boise or Wyoming, or just stay at 8. They might do well with 8 as the GREEN conference (both in terms of environment and weed).

Something you may see, with the next round of expansions if they happen you may see conferences looking to get to possibly 18 or 20, could work with 16 as well.

If you take that model you have 2 divisions of 8 - 10 teams, with 7 - 9 games. Basically you have 2 sub-conferences in a conference. Then they can have 1 - 3 cross divisional game that rotate to keep the conference together as one, with a conference championship at the end that means basically a first round of a playoff.

With this model you could still have a few non conference games. A mega conference with divisions full of classic rivalries and regions set by location, with a conference championship that has major implications, which would mean better product and bigger money.

With that model think about the 8 teams or 10 teams you would like to see In the conference. Personally, I would love to move WVU and Baylor out and bring in about 10 teams in this model. (I think WVU could get invited to one of the other conferences or look at them in the next round if they all look to add teams, Baylor is on the hot seat but I don't think it is at the point they would be kicked out.) Ultimately, it would be nice to have the old big 8 back together but that won't happen so you have to look at the next best thing.

Edit: Ultimately you could take 8-10 teams out of the Big12 and 8-10 teams out of the Pac 12, making one 16-20 team conference, and in this model you could have either a north/south division split or more realistically and likely a East/West (Pac12/Big12) division split.

 

[cyclones500]

Maybe the Pac 8 (??) could lead the path back toward smaller conferences?

Is there still some kind of mandate that leagues have to have at least 10 teams to hold a CFB conference championship game? I don't know if that part of the equation would affect the likelihood of dropping to 8.

The era of 8-team conferences might be over, unless as 2speedy1 suggests, the 16-team divisional split. I'd be fine if there were 13 10-team leagues (not sure how to handle FCS-to-FBS expansion beyond that, other than to make them play as independents).

 

[cyfanatic]

Is there still some kind of mandate that leagues have to have at least 10 teams to hold a CFB conference championship game? I don't know if that part of the equation would affect the likelihood of dropping to 8.

The era of 8-team conferences might be over, unless as 2speedy1 suggests, the 16-team divisional split. I'd be fine if there were 13 10-team leagues (not sure how to handle FCS-to-FBS expansion beyond that, other than to make them play as independents).

A 16 team league with divisions in reality would/could be considered 2 8-team conferences I guess. Same result...better for things like negotiating contracts. In the past I always felt for the stability of the Big 12 they should join the Pac 12 in terms of leadership and negotiate contracts as one block. But with the issues in the Pac 12 right now...the Big 12 seems a lot more stable then the Pac 12.

 

[2speedy1]

A 16 team league with divisions in reality would/could be considered 2 8-team conferences I guess. Same result...better for things like negotiating contracts. In the past I always felt for the stability of the Big 12 they should join the Pac 12 in terms of leadership and negotiate contracts as one block. But with the issues in the Pac 12 right now...the Big 12 seems a lot more stable then the Pac 12.

Yes, if you say take 16-20 teams out of the Pac 12 and Big 12 and make each a division, you combine the negotiating power and the administration costs etc. All the conference costs are halved and the content is doubled. Now a conference network has twice the content to broadcast. You have the chance to cross divisional games that would include Texas/USC or OK/OR or ISU/WAst. The Championship game would mean more too.
I think some of the issues with the PAC would be solved with this model, just by sheer volume of content for the network. The others would be by restructuring the administration after the merger.
Ultimately, I dont think you can take all of the teams and go to 22, I think the max is 20, so a couple are going to be out.

Or the Pac 12 can continue to implode and the Big 12 can just pick the best teams to join our league on our terms too.

 

[jbhtexas]

Yes, if you say take 16-20 teams out of the Pac 12 and Big 12 and make each a division, you combine the negotiating power and the administration costs etc. All the conference costs are halved and the content is doubled.

Have you read any of the recent articles on Larry Scott, and in particular, about his crazy, outlandish spending in the Pac-12 front office? This has been going on for years, and only now are a few Pac-12 ADs starting to speak up about it, and probably only because of the poor Pac-12 revenue payouts. I'm pretty sure that sort of thing wouldn't fly in the Big 12, but doesn't seem to be a philosophical issue for the Pac-12 (although it may very soon become a practical issue for them).

I think a significant barrier in the way of any kind of major Big-12 / Pac-12 merger would be the business (and possibly other) cultural differences. One conference spends about 1/2 million/yr on office space while the other spends several million per year on office space. Who is going to give?

 

[jbhtexas]

A lot of that office space is for the Pac 12 networks offices.

Perhaps it is. But it is an expense that the Big 12 doesn't have because the Big 12 uses a different third tier rights model, and it is an expense that isn't paying off for the Pac-12 because of the dismal revenue provided by the Pac-12 network.

 

[Jmarsh13]

A lot of that office space is for the Pac 12 networks offices.

The Pac-12 offices include 90,000 of square footage dedicated to studios, production bays, control rooms and a host of directors, technicians, equipment and talent.

This in a prime high rent area of San Francisco. The studio could be located elsewhere at a fraction of the cost for the same functionality.

Salaries of Larry Scott and associates also far outpace any other conference. The PAC12 office actually takes a 1/13 cut just like they were one of the schools.

 

[2speedy1]

Have you read any of the recent articles on Larry Scott, and in particular, about his crazy, outlandish spending in the Pac-12 front office? This has been going on for years, and only now are a few Pac-12 ADs starting to speak up about it, and probably only because of the poor Pac-12 revenue payouts. I'm pretty sure that sort of thing wouldn't fly in the Big 12, but doesn't seem to be a philosophical issue for the Pac-12 (although it may very soon become a practical issue for them).

I think a significant barrier in the way of any kind of major Big-12 / Pac-12 merger would be the business (and possibly other) cultural differences. One conference spends about 1/2 million/yr on office space while the other spends several million per year on office space. Who is going to give?

Do you think Larry Scott, and any of his front office personnel, as well as his HQ in San Fran, or any of his spending policies would survive a merger with the Big 12? I doubt it. Its not like we would automatically turn into the Pac 20, more than likely it would be run more like the Big 12.

 

[Gorm]

https://www.mercurynews.com/2019/03/21/letter-58/

LOL. Keep throwing gas on that fire Larry bandwagon.

 

[knowlesjam]

Don't worry guys, 5 years from now it will be all good!

Holy crap...talk about fiddling while Rome burns. If you are a school president in the PAC, how do you let that go on?

 

[ScottyP]

I remember fans on here saying we should have hired Larry Scott as Big XII commissioner a few years ago. Interesting how things have turned out for the PAC 12

 

[CysRage]

Don't worry guys, MAYBE 5 years from now it will be all good!

FIFY

 

[RonBurgundy]

Don't worry guys, 5 years from now it will be all good!

So, reading between the lines, is he trying to tell his presidents, "I know we suck now, but we won't suck as bad as Big 12 in 2024?"

 

[JP4CY]

Stewart Mandell and Bruce Feldman talk about this enough. They've even gone as far as comparing what conferences pay for rent for their home offices. They have said the PACs office is about as expensive as it gets in real estate and its pissed off ADs.

 

[Beyerball]

Talk about a conference with no leverage..horrible time zone...and USC has been down as has UCLA..the two should be premier teams..

 

[CYCLNST8]

The PAC will never catch up to other conference revenues as long as their demographic continues to be apathetic towards college sports. The best thing they have going for them is geography, as it would be hard to justify expanding that far west. Some day Colorado will come crawling back to us.