So, with all of the threads popping up, talking about how this team isn't as good as it was last year, or whatever, I've decided to start a season-long project.
I'd already recorded in a spreadsheet most of the stats for post-responses comparing last year to this year for statistics, so it was easy to just take it a step further. For the rest of the season, I'm going to keep running track of all of the deep cut statistics and keep a comparison. This, initially (and primarily) was to shut up the people who are saying "our offense isn't as good as it was last year" or something of the like, but I think it'll still be interesting.
As of seven games (through the UMKC game last year and the Buffalo game this year), here are some of the more interesting stats I've noticed.
Iowa State's PPG went from 83.57 to 87.14, an increase of 3.57 points per game. Our points per possession went from 1.18 to 1.15, an decrease of .03 (so, every 100 possessions, we'd expect to score 3 fewer points). This is because our possessions per game have gone from 70.63 to 76.06. We're scoring more points, but most of that is due to getting more possessions per game.
Our opponents, on the other hand, have gone from 68.29 Points Per Game to 66.57, a drop of 1.72 points per game. Their points per possession went from .96 to .87, a decrease of .11 (so, every 100 possessions, we'd expect them to score 11 fewer points. As should be expected, they are getting 5.2 more possessions per game, from 71.20 to 76.30. So, even though they're getting more chances, they're scoring less, both overall and on average.
A big reason for this seems to be assists: their Assist Rate (number of assists per made basket) has dropped from .62 to .41. This may seem small (.21 drop), but it's significant. This is pure extrapolation and "eye-test" grognargery, but to me, those numbers indicate that Iowa State is making the other team work harder for their points.
Another major reason for this change in opponent productivity, in my opinion, is rebounding. Our opponents are actually getting a tiny number of offensive rebounds (9.29 last year to 8.71 this year, or a .58 difference), that doesn't tell the whole story: remember, we've got more possessions and more shots this year. They're Offensive Rebound Percentage (the percentage of their total rebounds that are on the offensive glass) has actually gone down, from 28.57% last year to 27.53% this year. Just barely short of a whole percentage. That means that, in general, they're still getting as many offensive rebounds this year as they were last year, relatively speaking. The real telling difference comes in total rebounds. Total rebounds (both teams) per game has gone from 66.57 to 77.29. So, a total of 10.72 extra missed shots for someone to grab. They're grabbing 35.29 rebounds per game this year compared to 32.00 last year (a 3.29 rebound increase), meaning we're getting the rest. We've gone from 34.57 last year to 42.00 this year... an increase of 7.43 per game.
The only other significant (in my opinion, so, your mileage may vary) change is free throw shooting. Our percentage is down from 75.46% to 64.42%. For comparison sake, though it's not that important to my point, the other guys have gone from 72.94% to 64.95%. We're shooting 11.04% worse this year. But that's not the whole story. Last year, at this point, we'd gotten to the line 163 times and converted 123 of them (17.57 out of 23.29 per game) to shooting 104 free throws and converting 67 of them (9.57 out of 14.86 per game). We're getting fewer chances, and doing less with them. Significantly fewer and significantly worse. Now, part of this may be that at this point last year, we didn't have McKay as a free-throw albatross around our neck, but I'm not willing to lay it all at his feet: he's not the reason we're shooting 9 fewer free throws per game.
Most everything else, statistically, looks pretty similar from last year to this yea
My conclusions from this? Again, take this with the grain of salt they deserve, but the numbers, to me, say that our offense is doing just as well this year as it was last year, while our defense and rebounding have improved. Seven games is a small sample size, so I'm expecting to see some fun statistical shenanigans develop as the season goes on.
Any statistics you guys would find interesting? I love basketball stats, and would love to add stuff to my already pedantic spreadsheet.
I'd already recorded in a spreadsheet most of the stats for post-responses comparing last year to this year for statistics, so it was easy to just take it a step further. For the rest of the season, I'm going to keep running track of all of the deep cut statistics and keep a comparison. This, initially (and primarily) was to shut up the people who are saying "our offense isn't as good as it was last year" or something of the like, but I think it'll still be interesting.
As of seven games (through the UMKC game last year and the Buffalo game this year), here are some of the more interesting stats I've noticed.
Iowa State's PPG went from 83.57 to 87.14, an increase of 3.57 points per game. Our points per possession went from 1.18 to 1.15, an decrease of .03 (so, every 100 possessions, we'd expect to score 3 fewer points). This is because our possessions per game have gone from 70.63 to 76.06. We're scoring more points, but most of that is due to getting more possessions per game.
Our opponents, on the other hand, have gone from 68.29 Points Per Game to 66.57, a drop of 1.72 points per game. Their points per possession went from .96 to .87, a decrease of .11 (so, every 100 possessions, we'd expect them to score 11 fewer points. As should be expected, they are getting 5.2 more possessions per game, from 71.20 to 76.30. So, even though they're getting more chances, they're scoring less, both overall and on average.
A big reason for this seems to be assists: their Assist Rate (number of assists per made basket) has dropped from .62 to .41. This may seem small (.21 drop), but it's significant. This is pure extrapolation and "eye-test" grognargery, but to me, those numbers indicate that Iowa State is making the other team work harder for their points.
Another major reason for this change in opponent productivity, in my opinion, is rebounding. Our opponents are actually getting a tiny number of offensive rebounds (9.29 last year to 8.71 this year, or a .58 difference), that doesn't tell the whole story: remember, we've got more possessions and more shots this year. They're Offensive Rebound Percentage (the percentage of their total rebounds that are on the offensive glass) has actually gone down, from 28.57% last year to 27.53% this year. Just barely short of a whole percentage. That means that, in general, they're still getting as many offensive rebounds this year as they were last year, relatively speaking. The real telling difference comes in total rebounds. Total rebounds (both teams) per game has gone from 66.57 to 77.29. So, a total of 10.72 extra missed shots for someone to grab. They're grabbing 35.29 rebounds per game this year compared to 32.00 last year (a 3.29 rebound increase), meaning we're getting the rest. We've gone from 34.57 last year to 42.00 this year... an increase of 7.43 per game.
The only other significant (in my opinion, so, your mileage may vary) change is free throw shooting. Our percentage is down from 75.46% to 64.42%. For comparison sake, though it's not that important to my point, the other guys have gone from 72.94% to 64.95%. We're shooting 11.04% worse this year. But that's not the whole story. Last year, at this point, we'd gotten to the line 163 times and converted 123 of them (17.57 out of 23.29 per game) to shooting 104 free throws and converting 67 of them (9.57 out of 14.86 per game). We're getting fewer chances, and doing less with them. Significantly fewer and significantly worse. Now, part of this may be that at this point last year, we didn't have McKay as a free-throw albatross around our neck, but I'm not willing to lay it all at his feet: he's not the reason we're shooting 9 fewer free throws per game.
Most everything else, statistically, looks pretty similar from last year to this yea
My conclusions from this? Again, take this with the grain of salt they deserve, but the numbers, to me, say that our offense is doing just as well this year as it was last year, while our defense and rebounding have improved. Seven games is a small sample size, so I'm expecting to see some fun statistical shenanigans develop as the season goes on.
Any statistics you guys would find interesting? I love basketball stats, and would love to add stuff to my already pedantic spreadsheet.
