Some very interesting contrasts in this game - all on the Iowa O/ ISU D end of the court. That's clearly where the game will be decided - and like usual, if its a game in the 50s or 60s, I like our odds. If its a game in the 80s, we will almost certainly lose.
As showed in the kenpom pic above, #1 vs #1 in Turnover Rate at that end of the court is huge - but there's several other things as well.
According to haslemetrics.com, ISU defensively is #1 in NPAR (Near Proximity Attempts Allowed per 100 possessions) and Iowa is #4 offensively. Meaning that ISU doesn't allow teams to shoot at the rim and Iowa is very good at getting to the rim.
On the other hand, Iowa is one of the best teams in getting to the FT line (Free Throw Rate) and ISU is one worst at sending teams to the FT line. I think that's the biggest key to the game, unless a team goes off from 3 or dominates the boards (like UConn did to us) then I think it comes down to whether Iowa can get cheap points at the FT line. The 4 major conf teams ISU has played have all shot exactly 25 FTs. I think that's the number to match - less than 25, ISU probably wins. More than 25 Iowa probably wins.