How good can this team be?

[HoraceGrant]

i think we will be better than last year, but may only win 9 games (6 or 7 in conference). big 12 is too loaded

 

[Statefan10]

i think we will be better than last year, but may only win 9 games (6 or 7 in conference). big 12 is too loaded

If we win 6 or 7 games in conference, we'll win 11 or 12 games overall. We'll go 5-2 in the non-con.

 

[BryceC]

I think you could make that argument if the team played with fluidity and looked consistent. For example I think you could make that argument the first few Hoiberg years that that was as good as we are and people disappointed were unrealistic. With Prohms teams generally it just hasn’t looked good instead of when Hoiberg was here we just weren’t making shots but we still got good shots.

People who have been disappointed with the good years of both Hoiberg and Prohm are unrealistic. It's completely normal to be disappointed with bad years, and the bad years have been extremely bad under Prohm. That's the only difference IMO.

 

[Sigmapolis]

People who have been disappointed with the good years of both Hoiberg and Prohm are unrealistic. It's completely normal to be disappointed with bad years, and the bad years have been extremely bad under Prohm. That's the only difference IMO.

Prohm's worst teams were probably still better than McDermott's best teams.

Somehow.

 

[heitclone]

I think we as fans consistently overrate our talent. Our talent was clearly bottom of the league last year especially without Tyrese. We added a bunch of guys who I am grateful to have on the team, but aren't clearly top level guys which elevate our talent level significantly.

This. We are better but at best, maybe the 7th most talented team in the league. KU, Tech, WV, Baylor, Texas and Okie St all look better on paper. OU is in our neighborhood, TCU and K State are the bottom two. Anyone thinking different is a total homer, only thing that could change that is a frosh coming out of nowhere and being an NBA type of guy.

That's not the be all end all but we've seen this staff really only have success when they have a roster than is at least top half of the league. This year will be more fun but it seems more likely that next year is the year Prohm has the kind of roster he can win with.

 

[Clonefan32]

I have zero expectations other than hoping to see the young guys develop.

 

[ClonesTwenty1]

 

[cyclones500]

If this team could go 15-10 (10-8), I'd take it.

15-10 is about the same winning % as 18-12 in a 30-game season. That's bubble territory and probably over-the-hump if we're above .500 in league, considering expected strength of schedule at top of league.

But that's hoping most of this happens: (1) no losses at home as a favorite (2) sweeping TCU/KSU (3) at least splitting w/ OU, OSU and Texas (4) somehow stealing a win vs. BU/KU/WVa/Tech.

My actual hunch -- 12-13 (with either 7-11 or 8-10 conference).

(All of this w/ assumption full schedule is played, of course. I probably don't even need to add that caveat).

 

[BoxsterCy]

TBD

 

[larrysarmy]

As much as I am interested in watching this young core grow up, I’ll be interested in the improvement by CSP. He spoke at the end of the big 12 tourney about “changes” he was going to make to drive improvement and coaching and player accountability. How will those be manifested? Big year to see if CSP can evolve as he cited he needed to do.

 

[qwerty]

6-1 Non-con, 7-11 Big 12 = 13-12
I am an optimist.

 

[Cyclonepride]

You are right it is not a team of freshmen, but they have very little experience as a unit.

According to Bart Torvik, we return 44.4% of our minutes from last year and 47.7% of our possessions.

With minutes, we are #9 in the Big 12 (ahead of only Kansas State at 41.6%).

With possessions, we are #7 in the Big 12 (ahead of Tech, OSU, KSU at 29.0%).

We are on the lower end of returning assets relative to our Big 12 peers.

Texas returns 99.9% of its minutes and 100.0% (rounded) of its possessions.

As some of the late Hoiberg/early Prohm teams demonstrate (in both the good and bad sense), having long-term unit cohesion on and off the court can make a team better than the sum of its parts.

Luckily, Texas has the Shaka factor

 

[brokenloginagain]

I'll be stunned if we win 10 games.

Best season to have our worst team, this year is going to be pretty pointless.

 

[CyCloned]

At this point it is too hard to tell what this team is capable of doing. I think we need to see 4-5 games to even get a feel. I like some of the guys they have added, but getting them all of the same page.

 

[cykadelic2]

I think we got 5-13 or 6-12, assuming all of the games are in. He'll be back, I think he deserves the chance to be back.

If the NCAAs are missed this season, it will be time for a HC change but COVID financial impacts probably prevents him from getting fired. 18-36 in conference play over the past 3 seasons is unacceptable and another sub .500 conference record that doesn't enable a NCAA bid makes it obvious after 6 seasons that it will be time for change.

 

[madguy30]

If the NCAAs are missed this season, it will be time for a HC change but COVID financial impacts probably prevents him from getting fired. 18-36 in conference play over the past 3 seasons is unacceptable and another sub .500 conference record that doesn't enable a NCAA bid makes it obvious after 6 seasons that it will be time for change.

There will need to be more of a foundation than 'be the meanest, toughest team out there' or whatever he's said.

That's 'hit 'em coming off the bus' type of stuff that doesn't last.

 

[rochclone]

If this team could go 15-10 (10-8), I'd take it.

15-10 is about the same winning % as 18-12 in a 30-game season. That's bubble territory and probably over-the-hump if we're above .500 in league, considering expected strength of schedule at top of league.

But that's hoping most of this happens: (1) no losses at home as a favorite (2) sweeping TCU/KSU (3) at least splitting w/ OU, OSU and Texas (4) somehow stealing a win vs. BU/KU/WVa/Tech.

My actual hunch -- 12-13 (with either 7-11 or 8-10 conference).

(All of this w/ assumption full schedule is played, of course. I probably don't even need to add that caveat).

If they go 9-9, much less 10-8, in the Big 12 they will be comfortably in the field. The Big 12 has 5 teams that are #5 seeds or better in the dance. If we go better than 6-12 I would be pleasantly surprised.

 

[rochclone]

NCAA Tournament is in the near future.

Hopefully in the next year or two. If you miss the tournament in the next two years that is missing it 4 out of last 5 years. That would essentially put us back into pre 2011 state of the program. Which would be remarkable and extremely unfortunate.

 

[BryceC]

Hopefully in the next year or two. If you miss the tournament in the next two years that is missing it 4 out of last 5 years. That would essentially put us back into pre 2011 state of the program. Which would be remarkable and extremely unfortunate.

They aren't making the tourney this year unless everybody is totally wrong about this team which would be awesome. Like you said, if they don't make it next year though, that's 4 of 5 years out of the tourney, with several of them being total bomb out years. It'd be time to move on then, but that's a long way away.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

I have always been a big fan of Solo. I think his issues are more mental/coaching. I don’t think he ever is a great face up guy but I think he has the talent to do it enough to be slotted at the 4 some. I think he was better than Jacobsen last year. The problem is I don’t think he has a ton of love for it and I think the staff boxes him into that 5 role. I think he could be similar to Hogue if the staff had encouraged him to work on that area of his game.

Hogue was pretty high energy, Solo has more weight to carry around.