How good can this team be?

[Sigmapolis]

I’m on record as wanting to move on from Prohm. Talent wise I think we are mid pack or so. I think actual results are the same as last year.

I can’t find where I read it but I remember Prohm saying that he wants to use a 4 guard lineup this year. Unless it’s a semantics argument of who is a guard I have a problem with that. We have like 5 forwards this year. We have depth there. We also have some experience and high talent. We can’t waste that with rotating them all in one position.

I agree he is back regardless next year but that has more to do with finances in college athletics than anything.

I think positions are almost binary (e.g., guards and big men) at this point. I know we probably grew up with a tertiary system (e.g., guard, forward, center) or even with 4+ (e.g., PG, combo, wing, SF, PF, C, etc.), but fine distinctions between players at different positions is just not as much a part of the game nowadays.

Take the guards/forward in the rotation two years ago...

6'2" Wigginton
6'4" Horton-Tucker
6'5" Haliburton
6'5" Weiler-Babb
6'6" Shayok

We were essentially always playing 4/5 of them -- interchangeably, and switching on defense.

Wigginton was "PG" without PG skills, Horton-Tucker called himself a "SG" but his bulk and length had him guarding opposing 4 men all the time, and the other three were tall and lanky. But we used them all the same.

I think when Prohm says "four guards" he means four guards/forwards playing facing the basket and one true big man. Always having four of this pool of guys on the floor...

Harris
Jackson
Walker
Coleman-Lands
Bolton
Dubar
Johnson
Blackwell

...with Young/Conditt/Foster fighting for time at the "5."

The only complication to that I might see is if Foster earns playing time and slots in well at the "4" on offense. He might make more sense as a stretch big man given his game is more facing the basket.

Of course, if Foster is that good, then you could just put him out there with four other shooters on offense and put him in the paint on defense, where I hope a 7' guy can alter at least a few shots.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I agree. We really have what appears to be depth in the post with Solo/Conditt/Foster but will be really hard to get 2 of them on the court at the same time unless one has developed a new skill set that would allow it. I can't imagine playing 2 of them together would yield any different result than the awful Jacobson/Conditt or Jacobson/Solo lineups did last year. It'll be one of those have to see it to believe it type of things.

Just talking to myself here, but if one of these guys would prove to be more versatile, I'd have to put my money on Foster. It's possible Conditt has developed some face up offense or maybe added a 3 point shot to his repertoire over the offseason, but it's clear that Solo has embraced his role as a 5. I would guess Solo and Conditt split time at the 5 and almost never are seen on the court together. Foster might be able to play with them as a 4 against bigger lineups, and be kind of a 3rd option at the 5. Saying this of course without ever seeing Foster play a minute in my life.

 

[Halincandenza]

I’m on record as wanting to move on from Prohm. Talent wise I think we are mid pack or so. I think actual results are the same as last year.

I can’t find where I read it but I remember Prohm saying that he wants to use a 4 guard lineup this year. Unless it’s a semantics argument of who is a guard I have a problem with that. We have like 5 forwards this year. We have depth there. We also have some experience and high talent. We can’t waste that with rotating them all in one position.

I agree he is back regardless next year but that has more to do with finances in college athletics than anything.

Johnson is considered a guard so hence the four guard lineup. And that is the way Prohm plays and for that matter they majority of basketball. Playing two 5s on the floor at the same time isn't going to help anything. Prohm has already cautioned that Foster is young and has a lot to learn but hopes he can be an 8th or 9th man off the bench. So I wouldn't expect much from him this year.

 

[Halincandenza]

Just talking to myself here, but if one of these guys would prove to be more versatile, I'd have to put my money on Foster. It's possible Conditt has developed some face up offense or maybe added a 3 point shot to his repertoire over the offseason, but it's clear that Solo has embraced his role as a 5. I would guess Solo and Conditt split time at the 5 and almost never are seen on the court together. Foster might be able to play with them as a 4 against bigger lineups, and be kind of a 3rd option at the 5. Saying this of course without ever seeing Foster play a minute in my life.

Yeah, I could see at times where Foster and Young are on the floor together for a few minutes a game.

 

[Busch__Latte]

We won't lose 20, but that's likely due more to the shortened season than anything Prohm brings to the table.

Wow, I can't believe I agree with you. The defense under Prohm has been awful. We've finished last in the Big 12 in scoring defensive twice in the past 3 seasons.

 

[Urbandale2013]

Just talking to myself here, but if one of these guys would prove to be more versatile, I'd have to put my money on Foster. It's possible Conditt has developed some face up offense or maybe added a 3 point shot to his repertoire over the offseason, but it's clear that Solo has embraced his role as a 5. I would guess Solo and Conditt split time at the 5 and almost never are seen on the court together. Foster might be able to play with them as a 4 against bigger lineups, and be kind of a 3rd option at the 5. Saying this of course without ever seeing Foster play a minute in my life.

I have always been a big fan of Solo. I think his issues are more mental/coaching. I don’t think he ever is a great face up guy but I think he has the talent to do it enough to be slotted at the 4 some. I think he was better than Jacobsen last year. The problem is I don’t think he has a ton of love for it and I think the staff boxes him into that 5 role. I think he could be similar to Hogue if the staff had encouraged him to work on that area of his game.

 

[DeereClone]

You raise a good point. 7-11 would be absolutely best case scenario with this squad. 5-13 seeming more likely. My only counterpoint would be that while talented, that 18-19 squad was deeply flawed in its chemistry, and young. The 20-21 will be similar in one of those ways, in that they are young. Time will tell how the chemistry shakes out.

I don't disagree with that at all.

 

[Statefan10]

Another year with a bunch of young and inexperienced guys. Making the NIT would be huge.

I don't think we're THAT young and inexperienced..

Young (RS Sr.) - 4 year starter
JCL (RS Sr.) - 3 year starter at Depaul & Illinois
Johnson (RS Jr.) - 2 year starter @ Troy
Bolton (Jr.) - 2 year starter @ PSU and ISU
Harris (Jr.) - Started / 6-7 man at Memphis
Conditt (Jr.) - 6-7 man & started some
Jackson (So.) - 6-7 man & started some

Foster (Fr.)
Blackwell (Fr.)
Dubar (Fr.)
Walker (Fr.)

Our core group is going to made up of guys that actually do have quite a bit of experience. Blackwell and Foster are probably the only freshman that will get significant minutes, and both are highly recruited players. I'm more worried about the weird off-season in regards to our chemistry than I am about having guys that aren't ready to play at this level.

 

[awd4cy]

Winning 10 will be a struggle, but think we just barely make it.

 

[ClonesTwenty1]

With the way things are going with other programs and Covid, I doubt we play 15 games

 

[Busch__Latte]

I don't think we're THAT young and inexperienced..

Young (RS Sr.) - 4 year starter
JCL (RS Sr.) - 3 year starter at Depaul & Illinois
Johnson (RS Jr.) - 2 year starter @ Troy
Bolton (Jr.) - 2 year starter @ PSU and ISU
Harris (Jr.) - Started / 6-7 man at Memphis
Conditt (Jr.) - 6-7 man & started some
Jackson (So.) - 6-7 man & started some

Foster (Fr.)
Blackwell (Fr.)
Dubar (Fr.)
Walker (Fr.)

Our core group is going to made up of guys that actually do have quite a bit of experience. Blackwell and Foster are probably the only freshman that will get significant minutes, and both are highly recruited players. I'm more worried about the weird off-season in regards to our chemistry than I am about having guys that aren't ready to play at this level.

This is kind of what I mean. They don't have the experience of playing together, this is a mixed group of transfers and young hs recruits (minus Young).

 

[Sigmapolis]

I don't think we're THAT young and inexperienced..

Young (RS Sr.) - 4 year starter
JCL (RS Sr.) - 3 year starter at Depaul & Illinois
Johnson (RS Jr.) - 2 year starter @ Troy
Bolton (Jr.) - 2 year starter @ PSU and ISU
Harris (Jr.) - Started / 6-7 man at Memphis
Conditt (Jr.) - 6-7 man & started some
Jackson (So.) - 6-7 man & started some

Foster (Fr.)
Blackwell (Fr.)
Dubar (Fr.)
Walker (Fr.)

Our core group is going to made up of guys that actually do have quite a bit of experience. Blackwell and Foster are probably the only freshman that will get significant minutes, and both are highly recruited players. I'm more worried about the weird off-season in regards to our chemistry than I am about having guys that aren't ready to play at this level.

You are right it is not a team of freshmen, but they have very little experience as a unit.

According to Bart Torvik, we return 44.4% of our minutes from last year and 47.7% of our possessions.

With minutes, we are #9 in the Big 12 (ahead of only Kansas State at 41.6%).

With possessions, we are #7 in the Big 12 (ahead of Tech, OSU, KSU at 29.0%).

We are on the lower end of returning assets relative to our Big 12 peers.

Texas returns 99.9% of its minutes and 100.0% (rounded) of its possessions.

As some of the late Hoiberg/early Prohm teams demonstrate (in both the good and bad sense), having long-term unit cohesion on and off the court can make a team better than the sum of its parts.

 

[Hayes30]

NCAA Tournament is in the near future.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

Wow, I can't believe I agree with you. The defense under Prohm has been awful. We've finished last in the Big 12 in scoring defensive twice in the past 3 seasons.

We were near the bottom of the league in general 2 of those 3 seasons. Not making excuses for Prohm though. This is something that needs to change. Whether it's an issue schematically or if he just doesn't have the horses to play the defense he wants, it's on his shoulders to correct.

 

[madguy30]

Wow, I can't believe I agree with you. The defense under Prohm has been awful. We've finished last in the Big 12 in scoring defensive twice in the past 3 seasons.

It has a tendency imo to look like it's been coached like it should be good, but still is not very good.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

Poll results are almost evenly split amongst optimists, fence riders, and naysayers. The consensus being...there is no consensus! Expectations are all over the board for this team. Fun year in store, so long as it can be played out.

 

[MJ271]

Wow, I can't believe I agree with you. The defense under Prohm has been awful. We've finished last in the Big 12 in scoring defensive twice in the past 3 seasons.

I do agree that the defense has been lackluster. But I'd also point out that 2019 and 2017 were Iowa State's only years having a top 50 defense on Kenpom since 2005, Wayne Morgan's second year, when the defense was ranked 9th.

 

[BryceC]

Prohm will obviously get a pass this year, but I think it will go a long way if he can get this team to around .500 in conference play (or even 7-11) and a fringe bubble/NIT type of year. A lot to build on for next year if he can do that. If they flail around and go 5-13 or worse, that is bad news, but is it necessarily a let down given the landscape of the sport this year and what our expectations are as fans? He'll be back in 21-22 regardless of the answer

I think we got 5-13 or 6-12, assuming all of the games are in. He'll be back, I think he deserves the chance to be back. However, even if that aligns with my expectations it's a letdown because that's a terrible season. Football is having a historic season so that's taking a lot of my bandwidth right now, but typically by this point of the year I'm devouring KenPom, Bart Torvik, etc. I don't know if I've been on any of those sites this year. I saw a poster say the teams plays on Sunday. Honestly didn't even realize it. I knew the season started this week because Williams/Blum mentioned it on the podcast but never bothered looking up what day it was.

 

[BryceC]

I’m on record as wanting to move on from Prohm. Talent wise I think we are mid pack or so. I think actual results are the same as last year.

I think we as fans consistently overrate our talent. Our talent was clearly bottom of the league last year especially without Tyrese. We added a bunch of guys who I am grateful to have on the team, but aren't clearly top level guys which elevate our talent level significantly.

 

[Urbandale2013]

I think we as fans consistently overrate our talent. Our talent was clearly bottom of the league last year especially without Tyrese. We added a bunch of guys who I am grateful to have on the team, but aren't clearly top level guys which elevate our talent level significantly.

I think you could make that argument if the team played with fluidity and looked consistent. For example I think you could make that argument the first few Hoiberg years that that was as good as we are and people disappointed were unrealistic. With Prohms teams generally it just hasn’t looked good instead of when Hoiberg was here we just weren’t making shots but we still got good shots.