How Far Do We Go?

[cyclones500]

Somewhere on another thread someone posted the 97% chance ISU is in currently...what exactly has to happen to for that 3% chance of not making it to become a reality? I'm fully convinced ISU is in...just weird how they come up with those percentages.

In basic sense, to miss a bid, at least some of the following would need to occur:
1. ISU loses final 3 regular season games and 1st B12 tournament game, finishing 18-13.
2. Late surges by teams at or just below ISU's current seed range and no skids by teams above us.
3. Automatic-bid stealing by teams that wouldn't be at-large worthy. (Could require multiple instances).

About a 3% chance of that happening.

 

[rochclone]

In basic sense, to miss a bid, at least some of the following would need to occur:
1. ISU loses final 3 regular season games and 1st B12 tournament game, finishing 18-13.
2. Late surges by teams at or just below ISU's current seed range and no skids by teams above us.
3. Automatic-bid stealing by teams that wouldn't be at-large worthy. (Could require multiple instances).

About a 3% chance of that happening.

They are 10-8 in the best league in America. There is a 100% chance they are in. Not even enough mid-major squads that would impact bid stealing. Middle Tennessee State, UNC-Wilmington or someone from the Valley or A-10 other than the top two in those conferences.

 

[cyclones500]

They are 10-8 in the best league in America. There is a 100% chance they are in. Not even enough mid-major squads that would impact bid stealing. Middle Tennessee State, UNC-Wilmington or someone from the Valley or A-10 other than the top two in those conferences.

Yes, it's realistially 100 percent. To clarify my post that you quoted, I was answered madguy30's query about how an analyst would come up with 97%. Things that have to transpire for a team in ISU's situation to miss the tournament is likely to happen only 3 times out of 100 cases (the analyst would say). Almost no chance, but there enough variables remain to make it possible.

 

[SBMcDunk]

I think we make it as a 7, Burton has a good Burton game and scores 25-28. In the 2nd round we play the 2 seed and bad Burton shows up

 

[DRCHIRO]

Senior lead, battle tested guards tend to fare well in the tournament. We have three of them.

I think you can sense the urgency in this group, especially the 3 guards.

I'm bias, but I wouldn't trade Monte for any other PG in the nation right now. We make shots, we're as difficult to beat as anyone. The difference between this years team and the last 5 is that we can defend at a decent level.

So my answer is Phoenix

 

[spitfyr36]

Pending match ups, I could easily see this team in another Sweet 16. They way they're playing right now, I don't think anybody wants to run up against them. The field this year seems to be really even

 

[CRCy]

Pending match ups, I could easily see this team in another Sweet 16. They way they're playing right now, I don't think anybody wants to run up against them. The field this year seems to be really even

I agree 100%. That said if you look at the glass half empty they can lose to anybody they are matched up against as well and look really bad in doing so. Match ups will be key but they are a lock to get in if you ask me. That's the most important thing, obviously.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Consider me in this camp...

 

[cyclone19702]

If we beat Baylor this weekend, it is hard to see this team any lower than a 6 seed. 7 seed at the worst. Obviously depends on matchups but I see this team in the sweet 16.