Housing market

[Sigmapolis]

A lot of this is from looking back from this year to last year though. Immediate inflation can be at zero and still stay at high numbers when looking YoY due to the inflation we saw earlier in the year. CPI is 7.1% YoY but only .1% MoM.

The runup in consumer prices started in early 2021.

It is now almost the end of 2022 -- so this isn't a numerator effect anymore. This is two years of historically bad (at least for the past ~40 years) inflation and the damage done to real purchasing power.

0.1% MoM is fine and adds up to roughly 1.2% for a year -- great. But I don't know how "good" that is when the situation is so dire and nobody is talking about prices actually coming back down again.

The BLS price index for the pre-COVID highwater mark on prices was 259.007 in February 2020.

It is currently 298.349 for November 2022 -- a 15.2% increase in two years. You're going to need to hold at 0.1% MoM for a long time to get the long-term trend back down to 2% somehow.

Great we're slowly stopping the bleeding, but the patient is still missing a limb.

You’re apparently looking in the wrong places. 5.625% is our going 30 year fixed rate at the moment.

6.33% national average for a 30-year fixed on here --

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

5.67% for a 15-year fixed --

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE15US

 

[twojman]

I do think we're going to end up with outright deflation soon. (Within 6-18 months) I know we had this a little at the beginning of the pandemic.

 

[NATEizKING]

"Sales in November (4.09 million SAAR) were down 7.7% from the previous month and were 35.4% below the November 2021 sales rate. Sales are now well below pre-pandemic levels and, excluding the pandemic decline, sales are now at the lowest level since 2011."

"The median existing-home price for all housing types in November was $370,700, an increase of 3.5% from November 2021 ($358,200), as prices rose in all regions. This marks 129 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest-running streak on record."

I subscribed to this... https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/

Looking to get started in real estate investing, if anyone has experience and would like to help mentor me please send me a dm.

 

[mynameisjonas]

Seems like more and more houses are being listed on the market as the weather gets better and we head closer to the typical higher demand months for housing. Very curious to see what happens. I’m not so sure there is going to be a buyer at these prices and interest rates. Curious to see how stubborn the sellers are regarding prices And their willingness to negotiate.

 

[KnappShack]

Seems like more and more houses are being listed on the market as the weather gets better and we head closer to the typical higher demand months for housing. Very curious to see what happens. I’m not so sure there is going to be a buyer at these prices and interest rates. Curious to see how stubborn the sellers are regarding prices And their willingness to negotiate.

The view out my window shows more homes hitting the market which is common for this time of year.

They are not staying on the market long at all if the home is in a marketable location and decent quality.

The KnappShack housing thermometer shows a hotter market than late last year. At least from this view.

Every open house last weekend is now contingent in this neighborhood. It's like California rules are now here too.

 

[DSMCy]

Seems like more and more houses are being listed on the market as the weather gets better and we head closer to the typical higher demand months for housing. Very curious to see what happens. I’m not so sure there is going to be a buyer at these prices and interest rates. Curious to see how stubborn the sellers are regarding prices And their willingness to negotiate.

Two houses in my neighborhood in WDM, near JC Mall were listed a few weeks ago. Both sold in about 48 hours. I don't follow the market all that closely, but comparing to my house, I would consider the sale prices to be high. Doesn't seem like much of a dip from last year when interest rates were still low.

 

[SCNCY]

Seems like more and more houses are being listed on the market as the weather gets better and we head closer to the typical higher demand months for housing. Very curious to see what happens. I’m not so sure there is going to be a buyer at these prices and interest rates. Curious to see how stubborn the sellers are regarding prices And their willingness to negotiate.

This is what I am afraid of. For someone who bought a house in 2021, then sold the same house in 2022, and looking to buy another one in 2023, I am kind of frightened. I have a feeling that sellers are going to expect the same prices we saw in 2021 and 2022, but with a lack of demand, it may be tough to get multiple offers. I think those we need to move for one reason or another, will be willing to renegotiate. Those who aren't forced, will probably play hard ball.

I think you'll see good demand for lower end houses in a given area, with the demand waning as the quality and price increases. So lower end houses may have multiple bids going over asking, while middle to higher end will probably see only one bid at below asking.

 

[ISUAgronomist]

Seems like more and more houses are being listed on the market as the weather gets better and we head closer to the typical higher demand months for housing. Very curious to see what happens. I’m not so sure there is going to be a buyer at these prices and interest rates. Curious to see how stubborn the sellers are regarding prices And their willingness to negotiate.

Under contract (sold) last month for 9% over the new appraised value that just came out.

Houses under $425k are going under contract within a week in my neighborhood. Mine didn't officially hit the market. Sold day after agent walked through.

 

[NATEizKING]

 

[KnappShack]

I don't think it's quite apples to apples.

The subprime mortgages and exotic products blew the hell up, but today we still qualify borrowers with actual documentation and the neg-am products are a dinosaur from the past.

Of course government programs are the subprime of the day. If these start to go into foreclosure the demand is still strong enough to absorb the inventory.

Because right now there is no inventory. Historic lows.

But what do I know? There's always a doomsday guy out there for stocks and real estate

 

[FallOf81]

History repeating itself? No way! Folks are so disciplined about borrowing and banks are so tight on their lending standards so everything is fine. Oh and credit cards are now charging well into 20% to carry a balance. I mean what could possibly happen? And besides the stock market terror of 2022 is long gone. Enjoy your Saturday.

 

[Cyched]

I don't think it's quite apples to apples.

The subprime mortgages and exotic products blew the hell up, but today we still qualify borrowers with actual documentation and the neg-am products are a dinosaur from the past.

Of course government programs are the subprime of the day. If these start to go into foreclosure the demand is still strong enough to absorb the inventory.

Because right now there is no inventory. Historic lows.

But what do I know? There's always a doomsday guy out there for stocks and real estate

Curious to know how much rates are affecting this? And if people intend to refi when rates eventually cycle back down?

Always interesting to follow.

 

[KnappShack]

Curious to know how much rates are affecting this? And if people intend to refi when rates eventually cycle back down?

Always interesting to follow.

Guarantee mortgages are being taken with the thought of a future refi.

The difference in monthly payment is very real when the rate goes from 3% to 7%. We're pretty much stuck in our home because I'm not dumping a sub 3% rate and tacking on an extra $1k a month for a house.

It's a bit of a gamble to wait for falling rates. I look to housing demand. If rates fall because the economy went to **** that's one thing. But if jobs are still out there and the younger generations look to buy then it's not 2008

 

[SCNCY]

Curious to know how much rates are affecting this? And if people intend to refi when rates eventually cycle back down?

Always interesting to follow.

As someone who closed on a house last week. It’s a combination of high prices and high interest rates. While, from my observation, there are more houses that are decreasing prices, they are still sell at a high premium compared to 2019 levels. And interest rates don’t help either (we closed at 6.25%).

While I hope interest rates decrease, a 4% rate on my current mortgage would knock off $500-600 in my monthly payment, but still paying over 2k in principal alone. For the record, this is in the northeast.

Bottom line, the price of houses the last couple of years has sky rocketed and there doesn’t seem to be anything that will change that in the near future. I don’t think housing starts have even recovered to pre-2008 levels yet, which is a big problem.

 

[qwerty]

Guarantee mortgages are being taken with the thought of a future refi.

The difference in monthly payment is very real when the rate goes from 3% to 7%. We're pretty much stuck in our home because I'm not dumping a sub 3% rate and tacking on an extra $1k a month for a house.

It's a bit of a gamble to wait for falling rates. I look to housing demand. If rates fall because the economy went to **** that's one thing. But if jobs are still out there and the younger generations look to buy then it's not 2008

Pay cash . . . problem solved.

 

[Jer]

Pay cash . . . problem solved.

Coupons also help.

 

[SCNCY]

Guarantee mortgages are being taken with the thought of a future refi.

The difference in monthly payment is very real when the rate goes from 3% to 7%. We're pretty much stuck in our home because I'm not dumping a sub 3% rate and tacking on an extra $1k a month for a house.

It's a bit of a gamble to wait for falling rates. I look to housing demand. If rates fall because the economy went to **** that's one thing. But if jobs are still out there and the younger generations look to buy then it's not 2008

I believe that mortgage rates are more in line with historical. Problem is more housing prices than mortgage rates.

 

[KnappShack]

Pay cash . . . problem solved.

Well when the word mortgage is from this....

Mortgage dates back to the late 14th century, with the roots “mort” meaning death in French and “gage” meaning pledge. While that literally makes a mortgage a death pledge, it's not as eerie as it sounds.

 

[Cyclone06]

Good. “When the tide goes out we’ll see who is swimming naked.” And I’ll pick up a distressed asset.

 

[CycloneDaddy]

Good. “When the tide goes out we’ll see who is swimming naked.” And I’ll pick up a distressed asset.

Would love to see condo prices at the Ozarks fall. Not sure I want to root for peeps to lose their houses though.