ESPN -- "Dead Channel Walking"

ESPN is on basic cable. So unless I'm missing something these numbers are more or less the same as saying "Cable companies lost XXX,XXX" subscribers last month. Which implies that TBS/TNT and everybody else lost the same number of subscribers. ESPN is just the one hit the worst since so much of their revenue comes from subscriber fees.
You're correct, but not all of their additional channels are. I guess I assumed that would hit ESPN harder than other channels.
Not to mention, TBS has the ability to go OTT for their non-sports programing, while ESPN doesn't.
 
This is a fascinating read on the dire situation facing ESPN.

http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/espn-loses-another-555-000-subscribers-per-nielsen-112916

Shorter version:
- Lost over 1 million subscribers in last two months.
- Within 5 years, ESPN's subscriber revenue will not be enough to pay coverage rights.
- Network TV (ie: free over the air) could regain prominence in sports landscape.

For consumers, this is actually great news. But if you extrapolate this to the wider implications, it means we have already reached "peak sports revenue" in a way and revenue going forward may be going down for EVERYONE (this would include college conferences and schools like ISU btw).

I got rid of my subscription awhile ago. I was so tired of the agendas, the blatant SEC/ACC bias, being force-fed Tebow and Manziel and the NFL.

Their content has gone so far downhill. They run stuff now like ranking columns to questions nobody was asking. Who are the top 10 small forwards under 30? Is LeBron better than Kobe? Who is the better center, Anthony Davis or Hakeem Olajuwon?
 
This is great. These sports packages are a huge part of why our cable packages have risen so much the last decade. Schools were fine before the huge money and they will be fine with what is still a lot of revenue.
 
ESPN is on basic cable. So unless I'm missing something these numbers are more or less the same as saying "Cable companies lost XXX,XXX" subscribers last month. Which implies that TBS/TNT and everybody else lost the same number of subscribers. ESPN is just the one hit the worst since so much of their revenue comes from subscriber fees.

A lot of the cable and satellite companies are now offering packages with some of the better non sports channels (TBS/FX/AMC/Etc). Some of it is migration to these packages.

I'm curious to see to see what Q1 looks like next year. If they lost 1 million subs in Oct/Nov, what's going to happen when football season is over?
 
https://sportstvratings.com/how-man...-december-2016-cable-coverage-estimates/6936/

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A lot of the cable and satellite companies are now offering packages with some of the better non sports channels (TBS/FX/AMC/Etc). Some of it is migration to these packages.

I'm curious to see to see what Q1 looks like next year. If they lost 1 million subs in Oct/Nov, what's going to happen when football season is over?

yeah, I just re-upped with Direct TV a few weeks ago, and I could swear they offered me a non-sports package that didn't include ESPN. I didn't pay much attention to it, because I do watch live sports, so I'm not sure what all the details were, but I am almost sure they said it had no ESPN.
 
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But if you subtract the cable subscriptions don't you have to add the streaming subscriptions through sling, VUE, or direct now? How much of this is actual loss vs a transition.
 
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But if you subtract the cable subscriptions don't you have to add the streaming subscriptions through sling, VUE, or direct now? How much of this is actual loss vs a transition.
It sounds like they accounted for that ( although this quote is a bit vague)

Now, to be fair, ESPN fought Nielsen's latest channel estimates last month and argued that those estimates failed to count the number of over-the-top subscribers the company has, but Nielsen reviewed their data and confirmed its findings, much to ESPN's public dismay. Furthermore, there's nothing preventing ESPN from revealing its subscriber data publicly. What's more, ESPN cited Nielsen's own subscriber estimates in its most recent 10k filing last week. If the subscriber numbers were that far off would you cite them in your own public releases for the Securities and Exchange Commission? That seems unlikely.
 
I wonder what impact this has on the Big Ten Network payouts? I'm assuming there were assumptions made about subscription growth that might end up not being accurate.

It'd be great if, when all is said and done, the Rutgers addition ends up actually costing them money.
 
ESPN is paying the biggest price for the cable companies using their customers to subsidize the NFL, MLB, and NBA Networks. Non sports fans are either selecting a non sports package or they are cutting the cord. As soon as my contract is up, I'm done with Direct TV. There are plenty of other options out there until the cable companies figure out that they need to offer an a la carte service.
 
Isn't Amazon in talks with the NBA, NFL, ACC, etc for rights?

Didn't see the Big 12 on the list but why would I expect the conference to be proactive

The Big 12 was "proactive" in the sense that they didn't cave in to Boren's demands to make a cable network and add teams that bring no value. I guess take your victories where they come.

Sidetrack...speaking of Boren, he exhausted a huge amount of political capital to get his education funding tax initiative passed in OK. The measure was leading up until a few weeks before the election, but the tide changed and the initiative was soundly defeated. I was visiting the inlaws in OK over Thanksgiving, and it seems that OU supporters are starting to sour on Boren and his political motives.
 
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I wonder what impact this has on the Big Ten Network payouts? I'm assuming there were assumptions made about subscription growth that might end up not being accurate.

It'd be great if, when all is said and done, the Rutgers addition ends up actually costing them money.

Don't let B1G fans fool you, their network isn't immune to what is happening to the mothership. If the value of ESPN is tumbling then their will be a domino effect. Rutgers will end up being the addition they wish they never made because Bowlsby already over estimated the RU/NYC value, just think what will happen if the B1G Network goes to a subscription base only package.
 
If I'm honest I really think that this is beneficial for schools like Iowa State. We don't have the big metropolitan areas to dictate the tv discussion but we do have a large passionate fan base. I honestly think ESPNs biggest issue is their decision to cover the more popular things all the time. Even in the past few years it is really gone downhill. I never watch it anymore except for live sports. A couple years ago you could find select college programs. That isn't there anymore.
 
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But if you subtract the cable subscriptions don't you have to add the streaming subscriptions through sling, VUE, or direct now? How much of this is actual loss vs a transition.

I tweeted this to Clay asking the same question. Because I assume networks aren't making as much per subscriber with Sling and PS Vue (maybe I'm wrong?).

People are still watching live sports in record numbers - they are just consuming it differently.
 
This is a fascinating read on the dire situation facing ESPN.

http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/espn-loses-another-555-000-subscribers-per-nielsen-112916

Shorter version:
- Lost over 1 million subscribers in last two months.
- Within 5 years, ESPN's subscriber revenue will not be enough to pay coverage rights.
- Network TV (ie: free over the air) could regain prominence in sports landscape.

For consumers, this is actually great news. But if you extrapolate this to the wider implications, it means we have already reached "peak sports revenue" in a way and revenue going forward may be going down for EVERYONE (this would include college conferences and schools like ISU btw).

Sounds like a great time to add a program like Rutgers with virtually no hard core fans who will pay for direct content.
 
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So glad we are a "have" right now... When the next conference shake up happens the conference alignment might not matter as much as a rabid fan base.

We'd go from bottom 10% to close to top third if this thing switches from "new cable market" to fans who will directly pay a premium for content. Our overall attendance across all sports has to be in the top 25 doesn't it?
 
I've been saying for years that at some point the cash cow is going to run dry. At least lost a lot of great college football rivalries right....?
 
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If I'm honest I really think that this is beneficial for schools like Iowa State. We don't have the big metropolitan areas to dictate the tv discussion but we do have a large passionate fan base. I honestly think ESPNs biggest issue is their decision to cover the more popular things all the time. Even in the past few years it is really gone downhill. I never watch it anymore except for live sports. A couple years ago you could find select college programs. That isn't there anymore.

To me, it's been their recent propensity to create news, rather than just report it. Whether it be non-stop Tim Tebow, Manziel Mania, or even something like this whole "kneeling for the anthem" crap, ESPN makes sure that their "pundits" give as hot of a take as possible, so as to insert themselves into the story. Or, the example from a few years ago, where ESPN's own Ron Jaworski made comments about Colin Kaepernick being a top 10 All Time quarterback. (How silly that sounds now) Basically, the entire network seized upon it and it became one of the lead stories of the day, prompting interviews, reactions, and alternate takes from their entire cadre of "experts." Completely manufactured news. People get tired of that crap, or at least some of them do.

Shows like First Take are another issue. I understand why people might watch them initially. Conflict is a big draw, but after a while, you notice that that's all they have; conflict for conflict's sake with very little substance other than that. It becomes almost insulting to the viewers intelligence.
 

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