I never said that poaching Texas is a possibility for the Pac-12 at the moment, I said that I don’t want any expansion that doesn’t involve them. There are no other schools in the geographic vicinity that are worth adding, so expansion is pointless.Again, Texas isn’t going to the PAC. You can say the PAC deal was poorly negotiated and talk about population and footprint all you want. But in the end both leagues deals are up at the same time and what UT and Oklahoma are getting is way more than PAC and ACC teams are getting, and that gap is way more than “negotiating better” would’ve done.
Second, the idea that population and footprint is a major driver moving forward is totally wrong. That is still a factor, but that purely matters in the old cable/satellite model, where subscribers are dropping almost 10% year over year. The Big 12s ESPN+ deal was a tiny tip of the iceberg. When these last deals were made, over 100 million households were cable or sat subscribers. By 2024 it might be half of that. That means conferences with big population bases that don’t have fans actively willing to seek out and pay for content are going to keep getting less and less attractive.
Everybody that understands how this works knows that in the long run expanding with Maryland and Rutgers for TV markets is going to end up costing the Big 10 money per capita. The days of cashing in on subscribers that don’t really want to watch college football are waning at a fast rate.
PAC got a fairly poor deal last time, and that was when population was far more important than actual eyeballs and interest.
If you think PAC has any chance of poaching UT or Oklahoma, you have zero idea how any of this works.
My take is that by the end of decade there will be something akin to two super conferences of 40 programs. It might be football only, not clear on what it would look like. It should be a worrisome prospect for the less relevant and not well funded programs.
I think the G-5 and P-5 are reaching a breaking point in the current arrangement, so there is bound to be a schism sooner or later within the FCS.
