Cyhawk postgame thread
- Thread starter ClonerJams
- Start date
Must have been James. Thanks for the correction. Sure looked like #48 on my TV screen. Great play by Ta'Shawn!
CW bringing a great observation/prediction and Hassel with his classic smug jerkmania.
This is another reason why the comment from their Sports Information Director (Keith Murphy) on the Big 10 always being the stronger football conference is laughable.
From 2012-2023 in the Big 12 you couldn't hide from Texas and Oklahoma, unless you were Texas or Oklahoma. Everyone else had to play both of those teams every year.
During those same twelve seasons, Iowa had only two seasons where they played both Ohio State and Michigan, and averaged 0.8 games per year against those two teams.
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Food for thought from out east:
www.blackheartgoldpants.com
I see 16-21 against FBS teams with a winning record since 2020, but they're also 7-14 against ranked teams. The breakdown would be:
ISU:
7-14 vs. top-25 teams
9-7 vs. unranked teams over .500
22-5 vs. teams that finished under .500 (or FCS)
IOWA:
0-12 vs. top-25 teams
15-3 vs. unranked teams over .500
28-6 vs. teams that finished under .500 (or FCS)
This stands out: Iowa played 9 fewer ranked games and 7 more sub-.500 teams than ISU. I agree that everyone's records will always be propped up by wins against bad teams, but Iowa is uniquely fortunate to not only avoid quality teams (less than 1 in every 5 games), but essentially replace those quality games with bad quality teams — not even mid-tier. You can roll your eyes, but over a 13ish game season, getting 53% of your games against sub-.500 opponents (vs. 42% for ISU) and facing a ranked-quality opponent 1 in every 5 games (vs. 1 in 3 for ISU) can be the difference between 7 wins and 9 wins.
Where Fererntz makes his money is in that "unranked teams over .500" range. No one is better at winning coin-flip or less-than-a-touchdown-favorite games than Kirk, and being 15-3 against teams that go anywhere from 7-6 to 9-4 (and right outside the top-25) is thoroughly impressive.
But at the end of the day, ISU is striking a good balance — winning 1/3rd of their ranked games, over 50% of their mid-tier games, and 80%+ of the ones they should. Iowa is not — none of the ranked games, 83% of mid-tier games, and 83% of the ones they should. As Iowa's schedule gets tougher (and that is their reality), that "balance" is not going to serve them well.
Also, I’m not singling you out here (it’s broader than just this comment), but I wish we’d talk about the qualityof losses instead of the blanket "losses to G5 schools and a bunch of sub-.500 teams" when the reality is, ISU is almost identically successful against sub-.500 teams as Iowa, and those "G5 losses" were to Louisiana (10-1, #15 in the final poll), at Ohio (10-3), and at Memphis (10-3). Those are certainly nothing to be proud of (all either the worst or 2nd worst loss of each season), but pointing to those like some kind of scarlet letter while Iowa loses to a dreadful 5-7 Michigan State (#90 SP+ last year) or a 4-8 Nebraska in 2022 has always bugged me.
And it actually reinforces the larger point — Iowa has had a "worse" loss than ISU (using SP+ rankings) in 3 of the last 5 seasons, but Iowa fans (and Kirk, here) hang their hat on "look at our record" and Big Ten West titles. That "advantage" is not going to hold up with tougher competition. Look at ISU's 2023 season — they played 6 teams that finished ranked and just 5 games against sub-.500 teams and finished 7-6. And ISU was clowned for it! But how does a current Iowa team finish with that kind of schedule? They can't beat a ranked team... can they go 7-6? 6-7? That's the question we'll probably find an answer to this season.
Monday Musings: Three Points Short
Your best source for quality Iowa Hawkeyes news, rumors, analysis, stats and scores from the fan perspective.
www.blackheartgoldpants.com
I see 16-21 against FBS teams with a winning record since 2020, but they're also 7-14 against ranked teams. The breakdown would be:
ISU:
7-14 vs. top-25 teams
9-7 vs. unranked teams over .500
22-5 vs. teams that finished under .500 (or FCS)
IOWA:
0-12 vs. top-25 teams
15-3 vs. unranked teams over .500
28-6 vs. teams that finished under .500 (or FCS)
This stands out: Iowa played 9 fewer ranked games and 7 more sub-.500 teams than ISU. I agree that everyone's records will always be propped up by wins against bad teams, but Iowa is uniquely fortunate to not only avoid quality teams (less than 1 in every 5 games), but essentially replace those quality games with bad quality teams — not even mid-tier. You can roll your eyes, but over a 13ish game season, getting 53% of your games against sub-.500 opponents (vs. 42% for ISU) and facing a ranked-quality opponent 1 in every 5 games (vs. 1 in 3 for ISU) can be the difference between 7 wins and 9 wins.
Where Fererntz makes his money is in that "unranked teams over .500" range. No one is better at winning coin-flip or less-than-a-touchdown-favorite games than Kirk, and being 15-3 against teams that go anywhere from 7-6 to 9-4 (and right outside the top-25) is thoroughly impressive.
But at the end of the day, ISU is striking a good balance — winning 1/3rd of their ranked games, over 50% of their mid-tier games, and 80%+ of the ones they should. Iowa is not — none of the ranked games, 83% of mid-tier games, and 83% of the ones they should. As Iowa's schedule gets tougher (and that is their reality), that "balance" is not going to serve them well.
Also, I’m not singling you out here (it’s broader than just this comment), but I wish we’d talk about the qualityof losses instead of the blanket "losses to G5 schools and a bunch of sub-.500 teams" when the reality is, ISU is almost identically successful against sub-.500 teams as Iowa, and those "G5 losses" were to Louisiana (10-1, #15 in the final poll), at Ohio (10-3), and at Memphis (10-3). Those are certainly nothing to be proud of (all either the worst or 2nd worst loss of each season), but pointing to those like some kind of scarlet letter while Iowa loses to a dreadful 5-7 Michigan State (#90 SP+ last year) or a 4-8 Nebraska in 2022 has always bugged me.
And it actually reinforces the larger point — Iowa has had a "worse" loss than ISU (using SP+ rankings) in 3 of the last 5 seasons, but Iowa fans (and Kirk, here) hang their hat on "look at our record" and Big Ten West titles. That "advantage" is not going to hold up with tougher competition. Look at ISU's 2023 season — they played 6 teams that finished ranked and just 5 games against sub-.500 teams and finished 7-6. And ISU was clowned for it! But how does a current Iowa team finish with that kind of schedule? They can't beat a ranked team... can they go 7-6? 6-7? That's the question we'll probably find an answer to this season.
My oversimplified and biased summary:
Callers set theme of Hoks lost game ISU didn't win it. ISU got lucky. One caller says Iowa still better team and every position, Miller pushes back; brings up linebackers and Orange.
Hosts claim neutrality, but episode is certainly Hawk based.
The Hawk slanted shows are always delicious after an ISU CyHawk win
They need to stop hiring Cyclone or Hawkeye fans as hosts, it would do much better without either or do a setup like 2guys, which works very well.
Three guys blocking Orange on that play.
I liked their running back and OL. Actually, their QB played pretty well, but they were against a Cyclone defense that was OUTSTANDING!
Iowa released their depth chart for UMASS. Virtually no changes. Still Gronowski. It’s Kirk’s way of saying, yes it’s my fault, but there is no way you can force me to change anything, so I won’t. I don’t know if I have ever seen the anger at Iowa’s $8 million man’s depth chart as I have seen. They are lambasting that guy for everything now. That program is broke right now. Maybe he fixes it, I don’t know. But it’s been a fun past two days.
