Chaundee Brown Final 4 List

[CyPunch]

A 9-12 win team if this team, as is, takes the court next year. 9 is a single digit. That's no Harris. No Brown. You're playing 1 proven guard in the Big 12.

I don't think CSP always has and always will suck (that's a whole completely different topic) but I do think this roster, without Brown, without Harris, is not going to go out and win many games, no.

Harris becomes eligible, we get Brown, AND another impact player, we'll obviously be much better off.

But so far, we are 0/3 on that front. I hope we go 3/3 for next year, then we're talking a tournament team. But again, as of right now, Harris is not eligible, Brown is not playing for us, and we don't have another impact guy coming in. In my mind, no, we aren't more than a 9-12 win team.

FWIW as the team stands now, Barttorvik has Iowa State projected at 14-17 next year.

Bolton and Solomon are two of the better returning players in the conference.

Adding Harris doesn't change the computer projection much. Hypothetically adding Chaundee Brown significantly changes the computer projections in a positive way (86th to 63rd nationally).

 

[ISUCubswin]

FWIW as the team stands now, Barttorvik has Iowa State projected at 14-17 next year.

Bolton and Solomon are two of the better returning players in the conference.

Adding Harris doesn't change the computer projection much. Hypothetically adding Chaundee Brown significantly changes the computer projections in a positive way (86th to 63rd nationally).

Very true - the one thing that sticks out is the projections also have Solo and Conditt as our 2nd and 3rd leading scorers and playing 75% and 66% of the minutes, meaning they'd see a lot of playing time and the floor likely won't be very spaced unless Solo becomes a consistent three point threat. I wouldn't say this is out of the realm of possibilities, either, because he was pretty spot on from the top of the key.

 

[Cyclonepride]

FWIW as the team stands now, Barttorvik has Iowa State projected at 14-17 next year.

Bolton and Solomon are two of the better returning players in the conference.

Adding Harris doesn't change the computer projection much. Hypothetically adding Chaundee Brown significantly changes the computer projections in a positive way (86th to 63rd nationally).

Computers seem to do a decent job analyzing things when there is enough known data from a team to do so. They seem next to useless in analyzing teams that haven't even played together yet. The only thing it really tells you then is the biases of the people putting in the data.

 

[WhoISthis]

Computers seem to do a decent job analyzing things when there is enough known data from a team to do so. They seem next to useless in analyzing teams that haven't even played together yet. The only thing it really tells you then is the biases of the people putting in the data.

Your bias is certainly coming through.

Computer models for next year have inherently less bias than fans on a message board guessing like we are. Some here see last year only as 12-20 or bad players because on a team with a poor record. The computer models are less biased in that regard.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Your bias is certainly coming through.

Computer models for next year have inherently less bias than fans on a message board guessing like we are. Some here see last year only as 12-20 or bad players because on a team with a poor record. The computer models are less biased in that regard.

Well, sure, less bias than fans, but if you were to ask me if fan projections were useful, I'd say no to that as well. Interesting? Yes. Useful for future projections? Not really.

 

[CloniesForLife]

Computers seem to do a decent job analyzing things when there is enough known data from a team to do so. They seem next to useless in analyzing teams that haven't even played together yet. The only thing it really tells you then is the biases of the people putting in the data.

Computers are much more helpful in predicting how professional teams may perform as things change as those are more known commodities. With so many freshman coming in next year I have to imagine our computer projection can range quite a bit.

EDIT: Computers projections definitely become helpful in college bball as the year progresses.

 

[Halincandenza]

FWIW as the team stands now, Barttorvik has Iowa State projected at 14-17 next year.

Bolton and Solomon are two of the better returning players in the conference.

Adding Harris doesn't change the computer projection much. Hypothetically adding Chaundee Brown significantly changes the computer projections in a positive way (86th to 63rd nationally).

I would not say that those two or two of the better returning players in the conference.

 

[WhoISthis]

Well, sure, less bias than fans, but if you were to ask me if fan projections were useful, I'd say no to that as well. Interesting? Yes. Useful for future projections? Not really.

Do you ever read weather forecasts, or do you wear a raincoat every day?

They’re generally useful for future projections, but as with ANY future projection, not singularly sufficient.

They’re a great starting point.

 

[Halincandenza]

I would not say that those two or two of the better returning players in the conference.

@WhoISthis You disagree that I wouldn't say that??

 

[CyPunch]

I would not say that those two or two of the better returning players in the conference.

Bolton is the 2nd returning leading scorer in the Big 12.

I thought Conditt is maybe a little over sold by the Barttorvik projections but the advanced stats really like him.

 

[Rabbuk]

I would not say that those two or two of the better returning players in the conference.

Bolton yes, Solomon probably not

 

[WhoISthis]

@WhoISthis You disagree that I wouldn't say that??

Yeah, I disagree with the notion that those two aren’t two of the better returning players.

We can debate on what’s the cutoff for being one of the better returning players later, but most definitions would result in the inclusion of those two imo.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

I would not say that those two or two of the better returning players in the conference.

Depends who stays in school and who goes pro. Here I'll list who, in my opinion are the best returning players for each school and on a similar footing as Solo and Bolton:

Kansas: Garrett, Agbaji
Texas Tech: Ramsey, Moretti, Terrance Shannon
Baylor: Butler, Teague, Davion Mitchell, Mark Vital (although I'm convinced he's really only good when he plays us)
Texas: Matt Coleman, Sims
West Virginia: Culver and Tshiebwe
TCU: Samuel, Nembhard
Oklahoma: Reaves, Manek
Oklahoma State: Likekele
Kansas State:

I think Bolton and Young are good players, and though they are towards the bottom in my opinion based rankings, it does put them in the category of some of the best returning Big XII players for 2020

Bigs I'd rank like this:

Tshiebwe
Sims
Culver
Samuel
Manek
Solo
Vital

Guards/wings

Butler
Garrett
Ramsey
Teague
Agbaji
Reaves
Moretti
Likekele
Bolton
Nembhard
Mitchell
Coleman
Shannon

 

[rochclone]

Bolton is the 2nd returning leading scorer in the Big 12.

I thought Conditt is maybe a little over sold by the Barttorvik projections but the advanced stats really like him.

Which means he scored a lot of points on a really bad team including 7-8 games when Halliburton was injured.
Players ahead of Bolton IMO:
Jared Butler--May go pro
Devon Dotson--May go pro
Macio Teague--May go pro
Oscar Tshiebwe--Returning
Davion Mitchell--Returning
Mark Vital--Returning
Marcus Garrett--Returning
Brady Manek--Returning
Matt Coleman--Returning
Austin Reaves--Returning
Isaac Likekele--Returning
Derek Culver--Returning
David Moretti--Returning
Terrence Shannon--Returning

I think you then starting getting to Bolton territory and then I think Solomon Young is a very rungs below that. They both are absolutely top 20 players in the Big 12 with Bolton probably in the 10-13 range after some of these guys go pro.

 

[rochclone]

Depends who stays in school and who goes pro. Here I'll list who, in my opinion are the best returning players for each school and on a similar footing as Solo and Bolton:

Kansas: Garrett, Agbaji
Texas Tech: Ramsey, Moretti, Terrance Shannon
Baylor: Butler, Teague, Davion Mitchell, Mark Vital (although I'm convinced he's really only good when he plays us)
Texas: Matt Coleman, Sims
West Virginia: Culver and Tshiebwe
TCU: Samuel, Nembhard
Oklahoma: Reaves, Manek
Oklahoma State: Likekele
Kansas State:

I think Bolton and Young are good players, and though they are towards the bottom in my opinion based rankings, it does put them in the category of some of the best returning Big XII players for 2020

Bigs I'd rank like this:

Tshiebwe
Sims
Culver
Samuel
Manek
Solo
Vital

Guards/wings

Butler
Garrett
Ramsey
Teague
Agbaji
Reaves
Moretti
Likekele
Bolton
Nembhard
Mitchell
Coleman
Shannon

I agree generally.....both Bolton and Solo are Top 20 guys but neither is a Top 10 IMO.

 

[CyPunch]

Barttorvik Big 12 Player Rankings (PPRG!)

http://barttorvik.com/allrosters21.php?s=18&conlimit=B12&type=All&yvalue=All

Bigs:
Solomon (ISU)
Manek (Oklahoma)
Culver (WVU)
Sims (TX)
Yor Anei (Ok St)
Conditt (ISU)
McCormack (KU)
Samuel (TCU)
Kaleb Boone (Ok St)
Joel Ntambwe (Tx Tech)

Guards/Wings:
Cade Cunningham (Ok St)
Matt Coleman (TX)
Davide Moretti (Tx Tech)
Rasir Bolton (ISU)
Austin Reaves (Oklahoma)
Tyon Grant-Foster (KU)
Courtney Ramey (TX)
Marcus Garrett (KU)
Isaac Likele (Ok St)
Andrew Jones (TX)

Edit: I'm not sure why Macio Teague and Oscar Tshiebwe aren't on the Barttorvik projections. Tshiebwe is likely the top returning big and Macio Teague likely slots in 2nd behind Cade Cunningham.

I expect Jared Butler and for sure Dotson to be gone.

 

[rochclone]

Barttorvik Big 12 Player Rankings (PPRG!)

http://barttorvik.com/allrosters21.php?s=18&conlimit=B12&type=All&yvalue=All

Bigs:
Solomon (ISU)
Manek (Oklahoma)
Culver (WVU)
Sims (TX)
Yor Anei (Ok St)
Conditt (ISU)
McCormack (KU)
Samuel (TCU)
Kaleb Boone (Ok St)
Joel Ntambwe (Tx Tech)

Guards/Wings:
Cade Cunningham (Ok St)
Matt Coleman (TX)
Davide Moretti (Tx Tech)
Rasir Bolton (ISU)
Austin Reaves (Oklahoma)
Tyon Grant-Foster (KU)
Courtney Ramey (TX)
Marcus Garrett (KU)
Isaac Likele (Ok St)
Andrew Jones (TX)

Edit: I'm not sure why Macio Teague and Oscar Tshiebwe aren't on the Barttorvik projections. I expect Jared Butler and for sure Dotson to be gone.

Well if we have the 3rd best big and the 5th best guard in the league then we should absolutely make the tournament.

 

[CyPunch]

Well if we have the 3rd best big and the 5th best guard in the league then we should absolutely make the tournament.

Nah, we're at least one big piece or a couple pieces short. Really need Javan Johnson to help shore up our deficiencies on the wing and we still don't really have a PG. Missing on DeJulius was huge imo but Chaundee Brown would improve our outlook quite a bit.

We're not like KState roster bad though where Mike McGurl is the best returning player. That roster seems to better fit @ISUCubswin 9 win prediction.

 

[Halincandenza]

Yeah, I disagree with the notion that those two aren’t two of the better returning players.

We can debate on what’s the cutoff for being one of the better returning players later, but most definitions would result in the inclusion of those two imo.

I get that buts it’s kind of funny because disagreeing with my statement seems like you disagree that I think what I said.

 

[WhoISthis]

Well if we have the 3rd best big and the 5th best guard in the league then we should absolutely make the tournament.

Isn’t that kind of why last year was so disappointing?
There’s a chicken or the egg paradigm. Did we play bad because we have inferior players, or would most of our these players look a lot better if on different teams? Defense and shooting let us down when we had Haliburton. Adding a couple good wings/4s would have greatly helped.

Bolton was just a sophomore last year. If our culture and coaching is P5 level, He’ll improve from what was already a solid base. His per game numbers benefited from high usage easily bestowed due to being on a bad team, but on the flip side, it’s easier to look “good” when on a complete and good team.

It’s a guards game, so I’m not sure it matters too much on the center position. Young is definitely a top half 5 when you consider he doesn’t take much from other positions, as evident by him having one of the top PER’s in the conference.

Conditt can play, even if he hasn’t always. Jackson will likely improve quite a bit. And then you have 4 freshmen and Johnson, which history suggests means at least two competent Big 12 starter types.

If we add Brown, Harris is eligible and/or we add another combo guard, there’s going to be a lot of surprised people. In this scenario, if I thought Prohm was a better coach, I could see us having a very good year.