CFB Final 4

[SerenityNow]

I saw the Belk Bowl put out a tweet: We are officially not inviting Alabama to the Belk Bowl.

I think it will be Alabama, Ohio State, Clemson, Washington.

 

[CyJack13]

We just saw this on the CFP show. Joey Galloway was talking about the B1G East being the best division in college football. It was pointed out to him that computer metrics have that division #4 and the Pac-12 North at #2.

When a division or a conference has some really good teams and some really bad ones, we tend to overrate it. The B1G East (and the B1G in general) checks that box right now. Sure OSU Michigan and PSU are very good. They also basically got four in-division byes against 3-9 Michigan State, Indiana, Maryland, and the worst P5 team in college football, Rutgers.

The second place team in the Pac 12 North lost to an FCS team. Rutgers is historically bad, 137th in Sagarin, that really drags down any division they are in. The difference between Maryland, Michigan St, Indiana and Oregon, Oregon St and Cal is very minimal.

 

[Sigmapolis]

It would have been an interesting year for the old BCS formula.

Computer average probably would have been:
Alabama
Ohio State
Michigan
Clemson
------------
Washington

Final Coaches/Harris poll for the other 2/3 would/will probably be:
Alabama
Ohio St.
Clemson
Penn St or Washington

It would be the same Penn State or Washington question but with a somewhat objective criteria that had been agreed upon by everyone before a single game was played. What a marvelous decision to abandon that for a very small committee of partisans. BRILLIANT!

For reference, College Football Reference and their SRS calculations (a straightforward methodology for ranking teams based on win differential and opponents' win differential) would rank teams in the following way. I normalized their distribution, so the numbers below are "standard deviations away from the mean," rather than their description...

"The important thing to know is that SRS is a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. For instance, the 2006-07 Spurs won games by an average of 8.43 points per game and played a schedule with opponents that were 0.08 points worse than average, giving them an SRS of 8.35. This means they were 8.35 points better than an average team. An average team would have an SRS of 0.0. The calculation can be complicated, but the premise is simple and it produces easily interpreted results."

Here is the top ten in their rankings:

Alabama Crimson Tide 2.49
Ohio State Buckeyes 2.08
Washington Huskies 2.06
Michigan Wolverines 1.86
Penn State Nittany Lions 1.56
USC Trojans 1.55
Clemson Tigers 1.38
Wisconsin Badgers 1.36
Colorado Buffaloes 1.26
LSU Tigers 1.12

 

[HFCS]

The second place team in the Pac 12 North lost to an FCS team. Rutgers is historically bad, 137th in Sagarin, that really drags down any division they are in. The difference between Maryland, Michigan St, Indiana and Oregon, Oregon St and Cal is very minimal.

Cal, Oregon and UCLA have ridiculously more talent than teams like Indiana and Maryland.

I think this is an example of the other poster who said nobody watches their games.

 

[HFCS]

For reference, College Football Reference and their SRS calculations (a straightforward methodology for ranking teams based on win differential and opponents' win differential) would rank teams in the following way. I normalized their distribution, so the numbers below are "standard deviations away from the mean," rather than their description...

"The important thing to know is that SRS is a rating that takes into account average point differential and strength of schedule. For instance, the 2006-07 Spurs won games by an average of 8.43 points per game and played a schedule with opponents that were 0.08 points worse than average, giving them an SRS of 8.35. This means they were 8.35 points better than an average team. An average team would have an SRS of 0.0. The calculation can be complicated, but the premise is simple and it produces easily interpreted results."

Here is the top ten in their rankings:

Alabama Crimson Tide 2.49
Ohio State Buckeyes 2.08
Washington Huskies 2.06
Michigan Wolverines 1.86
Penn State Nittany Lions 1.56
USC Trojans 1.55
Clemson Tigers 1.38
Wisconsin Badgers 1.36
Colorado Buffaloes 1.26
LSU Tigers 1.12

I grabbed my top 4 from Massey average which I know isn't the old BCS computer third because most of them consider margin of victory.

Consistent component is Michigan is in the top 4 mix with computers and not with voters.

 

[enisthemenace]

We just saw this on the CFP show. Joey Galloway was talking about the B1G East being the best division in college football. It was pointed out to him that computer metrics have that division #4 and the Pac-12 North at #2.

When a division or a conference has some really good teams and some really bad ones, we tend to overrate it. The B1G East (and the B1G in general) checks that box right now. Sure OSU Michigan and PSU are very good. They also basically got four in-division byes against 3-9 Michigan State, Indiana, Maryland, and the worst P5 team in college football, Rutgers.

Pac12 North's best win outside of the conference is Kansas State (Stanford). Some OOC losses for that division?

- Washington State (#2 team in that division) lost to Eastern Washington and Boise State
- Cal lost to San Diego State

Stalwart OOC wins for that division?

- Rutgers, Idaho, Portland (Washington)
- Idaho (Washington State)
- Notre Dame, Rice (Stanford)
- Hawaii, Texas (Cal)
- Idaho State (Oregon State)
- UC Davis, Virginia (Oregon)

Brutal (jimlad)

 

[CyJack13]

Cal, Oregon and UCLA have ridiculously more talent than teams like Indiana and Maryland. Oregon St isn't much more talented but they are quite clearly a better team than those teams this year.

I think this is an example of the other poster who said nobody watches their games.

So now we're basing results on what, recruiting rankings? How is Oregon St quite clearly better than Maryland? These are absolutely baseless statements and I included Michigan St in that group as well. To me, Michigan St and Oregon are very similar cases this year. Teams with a lot of success that collapsed this year. Seems like you would fit right in with the comittee with your biased eye test criteria.

 

[CyJack13]

Pac12 North's best win outside of the conference is Kansas State (Stanford). Some OOC losses for that division?

- Washington State (#2 team in that division) lost to Eastern Washington and Boise State
- Cal lost to San Diego State

Stalwart OOC wins for that division?

- Rutgers, Idaho, Portland (Washington)
- Idaho (Washington State)
- Notre Dame, Rice (Stanford)
- Hawaii, Texas (Cal)
- Idaho State (Oregon State)
- UC Davis, Virginia (Oregon)

Brutal (jimlad)

Apparently we're supposed to disregard the on the field results in favor of metrics like "talent" and speed.

 

[CyArob]

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Ohio State
4. Washington

 

[HFCS]

So now we're basing results on what, recruiting rankings? How is Oregon St quite clearly better than Maryland? These are absolutely baseless statements and I included Michigan St in that group as well. To me, Michigan St and Oregon are very similar cases this year. Teams with a lot of success that collapsed this year. Seems like you would fit right in with the comittee with your biased eye test criteria.

There are a lot of 4-8 teams I'd rather play than UCLA who I know is loaded with speed. I'd rather play the bottom half of the Big Ten.

There are less bye weeks in P12 play.

As a Hawkeye fan are you really going to tell me with a straight face after playing Stanford last year that speed isn't a factor comparing Big Ten and Pac 12 success?

 

[clonedude]

Alabama
Clemson
Washington
Penn State

I think the committee, whether they will admit this or not, understands politics. In CFB politics, you cannot omit a one loss Pac 12 champ in favor of a second B1G team. And going out on a limb, I think they will uphold their principle that conference championships matter, and select the B1G team that won the conference championship. In spite of their 2 losses, PSU played their best football toward the end of the season. Maybe that is not a crieria, but it is reasoning that would sell the decision. That, and they beat tOSU head to head.

Completely agree. Either conference championships matter or they don't. That's why my 4 teams match yours exactly. All 4 teams won their conferences.

The Big 12 has been getting hammered by analysts and the committee for 2 years now because we don't have a conference championship and a 13th data point. So does it matter or not then? Yesterday, all these teams were validating their seasons, while Ohio State, Michigan, etc were all at home sitting on the couch enjoying themselves.

OSU's chance was blown when they played the B1G Champion (Penn State) and lost.

 

[cmjh10]

For fun, lets say we went to 8 teams this year. Champ from each P5 and 3 at large who would get in?

Bama
Clemson
PSU
Oklahoma
Washington

OSU
Michigan?
USC?
Wisconsin?

Western Michigan?

 

[CyJack13]

There are a lot of 4-8 teams I'd rather play than UCLA who I know is loaded with speed. I'd rather play the bottom half of the Big Ten.

There are less bye weeks in P12 play.

As a Hawkeye fan are you really going to tell me with a straight face after playing Stanford last year that speed isn't a factor comparing Big Ten and Pac 12 success?

Lol when you don't have a logical argument fall back to calling someone an Iowa fan. Good stuff, glad to know you have nothing to back up your position.

And Washington didn't even play UCLA.

 

[clonedude]

And....? USC beat Colorado at Colorado. Do you think Colorado is on Alabama's level?

You have to get off the whole comparing teams to Alabama. NOBODY is on Alabama's level. They will probably win the title game by 3 TDs or more.

 

[Cy$]

ohio st. 3rd, bullcrap

 

[madguy30]

Kirk beaming like a schoolboy when OSU got picked.

 

[CyJack13]

You have to get off the whole comparing teams to Alabama. NOBODY is on Alabama's level. They will probably win the title game by 3 TDs or more.

Yeah...that was my whole point when I said that I would be surprised if Washington beat Bama.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

For fun, lets say we went to 8 teams this year. Champ from each P5 and 3 at large who would get in?

Bama
Clemson
PSU
Oklahoma
Washington

OSU
Michigan?
USC?
Wisconsin?

Western Michigan?

If it were me, I'd set it up as:

Power 5 champions
Top Group of 5 team
2 at larges, no more than one per conference

So I would be including Western Michigan, Ohio State, and probably USC along with Alabama, Clemson, Penn State, Washington, and Oklahoma. Let the committee seed them and play at the better-seeded home stadium.

 

[enisthemenace]

Probably the "right" 4. Penn State is pissed though.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

The real rankings are:

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Washington in Peach Bowl
#2 Clemson vs. #3 Ohio State in Fiesta Bowl