Bubble Watch

[CyForPresident]

SOS has a value all it's own win or lose. The committee doesn't just see L's to Gonzaga and Cincy.

I agree but our non-con SOS is 155 in RPI and 198 in kenpom. That is terrible. We need Miami to make the field

 

[iowast8fan]

Why do we not seem to move much in RPI after road wins? I didn't see much movement after the Kansas win on the road, and again after the Kansas state win. I thought road wins were cherished in RPI calculations.

 

[knowlesjam]

We are still paying the price for the relatively weak non-conference games. We do have opportunity over the next 3 3+ weeks though...don't stub the toe on TCU and Tech, plus #1 RPI Baylor comes to town. The RPI will get there if we can get the W's...

 

[Cyclonepride]

Hard to believe anyone is still worried. Not really, but it should be hard to believe.

 

[CycloneWarning]

Why do we not seem to move much in RPI after road wins? I didn't see much movement after the Kansas win on the road, and again after the Kansas state win. I thought road wins were cherished in RPI calculations.

We moved up 8 spots last night (today) after beating KSU on the road from 55 to 47. Miami got a win also and moved up 2 spots to 50, which is nice to give us another top 50 win.

http://realtimerpi.com/college_Men_basketball_rpi.html

 

[swarthmoreCY]

10-8 or better is about the only way I feel comfortable. I know 9-9 may do it, but I wouldn't feel like they were robbed or something for not making it with that record.

Weird how one game makes that much difference in my feelings but 18-6, which is what ISU is *this* close to (or better) sounds miles better than 15-9.

19-6, as we gave up a chance of a probable win in the non-conference.

There isn't a lot of separation in CBB and a lot of teams find their seasons swing on the fickle nature of close games. In our case a lot of it is bad luck imo, but like 2010-11, one more player would have been huge.

Hopefully the ball bounces our way and we finish well enough to not only make it, but avoiding a 1 or 2 seed. If Young gives us anything near yesterday's efficient output and Burton keeps playing well, we're arguably a top-20 team capable of a very deep run with a good draw and the shots falling.

 

[Tre4ISU]

So long as we beat TCU, I think we can lose out and make it. Right now, with projected results, we are easily in and two projected loses are basically 50/50 games. It's entirely possible we go 11-7 which is probably somewhere around a 6 seed.

I also wish they'd do something about OOC SOS. playing Gonzaga, Miami and Cinci consecutively is much harder than play 8 teams in the 150 range. Reward teams for playing really good teams and not for playing a bunch of mediocre teams.

 

[cyclone101]

So long as we beat TCU, I think we can lose out and make it. Right now, with projected results, we are easily in and two projected loses are basically 50/50 games. It's entirely possible we go 11-7 which is probably somewhere around a 6 seed.

I also wish they'd do something about OOC SOS. playing Gonzaga, Miami and Cinci consecutively is much harder than play 8 teams in the 150 range. Reward teams for playing really good teams and not for playing a bunch of mediocre teams.

That very well may be. But I definitely don't want our fate to come down to a "Who's hot, who's not" scenario.

 

[swarthmoreCY]

So long as we beat TCU, I think we can lose out and make it. Right now, with projected results, we are easily in and two projected loses are basically 50/50 games. It's entirely possible we go 11-7 which is probably somewhere around a 6 seed.

I also wish they'd do something about OOC SOS. playing Gonzaga, Miami and Cinci consecutively is much harder than play 8 teams in the 150 range. Reward teams for playing really good teams and not for playing a bunch of mediocre teams.

Good point. The SOS can certainly be gamed by schools with a lot of money. In terms of probable win percentage our OOC was a lot tougher than the cumulative SOS suggests. The SOS says otherwise, but imo effectively there's not much of a difference between playing a bunch of almost-sure wins against teams around 150 and guaranteed wins against cupcakes. we didn't or couldn't buy our way to 9 to 10 expensive probable wins in combination with a few toss-ups or likely losses.

 

[Tre4ISU]

That very well may be. But I definitely don't want our fate to come down to a "Who's hot, who's not" scenario.

FTR I think we're finishing 4-1 and getting a 4 or 5 seed. Even 3-2 is a 6 or 7.

 

[Gunnerclone]

So long as we beat TCU, I think we can lose out and make it. Right now, with projected results, we are easily in and two projected loses are basically 50/50 games. It's entirely possible we go 11-7 which is probably somewhere around a 6 seed.

I also wish they'd do something about OOC SOS. playing Gonzaga, Miami and Cinci consecutively is much harder than play 8 teams in the 150 range. Reward teams for playing really good teams and not for playing a bunch of mediocre teams.

I think it gets noticed.

 

[cyclones500]

Cyclones 500 Bubble Watch update, thru Feb. 16.

Not much to report, U-M notched another good win vs. UW. At Minnesota this weekend, getting closer to locking.

Recent consensus is Utah had to do something soon to stay in the conversation. I have a feeling "something" didn't involve losing by 20 at Oregon. Utes are officially done for an at-large ... remaining schedule is nearly useless in that regard.

 

[spk123]

Bumped up to "should be in" on ESPN's Bubble Watch

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

 

[CyKings]

Why do we not seem to move much in RPI after road wins? I didn't see much movement after the Kansas win on the road, and again after the Kansas state win. I thought road wins were cherished in RPI calculations.

Usually you have to wait about 24 hours for it to be updated.

 

[NoCreativity]

Unreal that they still have Clemson on that page. They have to beat Miami, Virginia Tech, and Florida State to even sniff .500 in that conference. At some point losses have to be a factor in whether or not you are a tourney team, not how close you play all the good teams.

 

[cyclones500]

Bumped up to "should be in" on ESPN's Bubble Watch

Elevation in status is encouraging, but I probably would keep ISU in "Work to do" category for another game or two.

 

[Gunnerclone]

Bumped up to "should be in" on ESPN's Bubble Watch

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Good read for the people that are stuck in the pre-exapansion/contraction world of NCAA tourney thinking. So like 50% of the people on this site.

 

[Bader]

Why do we not seem to move much in RPI after road wins? I didn't see much movement after the Kansas win on the road, and again after the Kansas state win. I thought road wins were cherished in RPI calculations.

Road wins have no additional weight in RPI

25% of your RPI is your winning percentage
50% of your RPI is your opponent's winning precentage
25% of your RPI is their opponent's winning precentage

 

[cyclones500]

Bumped up to "should be in" on ESPN's Bubble Watch

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bubblewatch

Something I noticed in that Bubble Watch (and recent updates), the obsession with "per-possession" metric (I think it makes about 10 references to that throughout). I realize RPI-based system has flaws, and there's a move toward a more comprehensive analysis. But I guess I don't understand how per-possession performance fits into the puzzle. Is it a way to quantify the "eye test"?

I'm sure someone with better knowledge of it can educate me. It seems far less essential than who you beat, who beat you, who did you play, schedule dynamics, et. al.

 

[Mtowncyclone13]

Road wins have no additional weight in RPI

25% of your RPI is your winning percentage
50% of your RPI is your opponent's winning precentage
25% of your RPI is their opponent's winning precentage

does this include the games they've played against you? if you beat a team their ranking goes down because they lost. so your ranking goes down because you played a team who lost, right?