Honestly as long as it’s a 2/3 seed it won’t make much difference, it’s about avoiding the 1 seeds which are an obvious cut ahead of other teams this year for as long as possible
Bracket Predictions 2025-26
- Thread starter dahliaclone
- Start date
This is why I am saying people shouldn't act surprised if we end up a 3 unless we win either tonight, or next Thursday in the Big-12 tournament.
I’m seeing some brackets have us as a 2 in the East with Houston usurping us for the 2 in the Midwest, which is not ideal. I think I’d rather be the 3 in the South at that point
Good catch, they are at 5 losses as well.
Feels like if either ISU can get the upset over Arizona, or MSU over Michigan, they can clinch that last spot. If they both lose (which I think they will) I feel like ISU will have a slight edge. But it will be close.
If spears beats Michigan it’s just a huge two seed. If not still will be a 2 as long as it’s pretty close
Last night was a good example of how silly it is whenever we lose a game and doomers go "We're a 4-seed now." As I always say, your results don't happen in a vacuum -- other teams lose, too. Alabama, Texas Tech, Kansas, and Nebraska all lost. As long as we don't lose our next two, there's no chance we're a 4-seed.
Right now, I'd say we're the highest 3 or the lowest 2. Florida is the highest 2-seed, then YMMV on how you want to order Houston, Michigan State, Illinois, and Iowa State.
Right now, I'd say we're the highest 3 or the lowest 2. Florida is the highest 2-seed, then YMMV on how you want to order Houston, Michigan State, Illinois, and Iowa State.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
I still have no idea how Illinois moved up while losing to UCLA and Michigan
A solid group of online bracketologists did a group prediction this afternoon. 3 Seed/9th Overall.
Wisconsin in the round of 32 is about as tough as we could get. Please no.
They're Jekyl/Hyde to the extreme but have great wins and can hit in bunches from 3.
And since ISU has had a few issues with that, yeah no thanks. Definitely not the same type of deal as '22 where WI was just soft.
Geographically and strategically, 3 in the Midwest with UConn as our 2 is a good setup. Probably just as good as the 2 in the East.
I also agree, I wish we could get either Louisville or Tennessee as our 6-seed rather than Wisconsin. I would like to avoid Wisconsin (I do think they’ll slide up to a 5 with how they’re playing).
That’s my prediction too. Seems like there is always one or two things the committee does with seeding that surprises the general consensus. My guess is we come in as the last 2 seed.
An update before today's game. Link to the resume comparison file.
- I've got Michigan State at 7, Illinois at 8, and Iowa State at 9 in the overall seed list. But Iowa State is tightening the metrics with Illinois. In the resume metrics of SOR and WAB, Iowa State is ranked 12/10 and Illinois is 13/11 after yesterday's games. In predictive metrics of BPI/Kenpom/Torvik, Illinois is 6/5/6 while Iowa State is 7/7/7. Those are all super tight, so it could come down to who has better wins.
- Illinois best wins: H Texas Tech, N Tennessee, A Purdue, A Nebraska, A Iowa
- Iowa State best wins: N St. John's, A Purdue, H Iowa, H Kansas, H Houston.
- You could argue either way on those. It'll be tight. Could come down to if Iowa State beats Texas Tech and maybe Illinois drops their first one in the Big Ten tourney to Wisconsin.
- Monitor Michigan State as well. Their resume metrics are a bit ahead of Iowa State and Illinois being at 7 in both SOR and WAB. Root for UCLA over them in the Big 10 quarters.
- The other part to factor in to this is the timing of each conference's tourney games. Iowa State playing Texas Tech today could be a benefit if we win compared to Illinois and Michigan State not playing their quarters until Friday. It's possible the committee could have completed their seeding of the top 2 seed lines tonight or during the day on Friday. They always say they rescrub the list order each day, but who knows to what extent or how much they factor where teams are already placed in that order.
Honestly a 3 in the Midwest (which we’d have as the overall 9 seed and UConn going to MW as a 2) is probably just as good or better than the 2 in the East (which is what we’d be if we get a 2 right?) Other than a tougher R32 matchup right?
We have to be a 2 unless all of the teams close to us win their conference tournaments and that ain't happening.
If we rise to a 2, other factors will determine what region we're in. If Duke is overall #1 and UConn is overall #5, UConn can't play in the East as the top 2-seed can't be in the same region as the overall 1 seed. But if Michigan is 1 overall or if Houston jumps UConn for 5 overall, then UConn could be the 2 in the East and ISU could be 2 in the Midwest.
You think either of those two things are likely? If everything else stay status quo right now, and we bump to a 2, you think we’d go to the East?
