If that were to happen it would end up being a true merger rather than an absorption. 18 team conference and maybe, just maybe you bring in another 2 to get to 20.
Big 12 vs. Pac 12
- Thread starter BryceC
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I am 100% certain this is what will matter in the long run.
The question is are we there yet and are these decisions being made thinking about long term or thinking about immediate cash.
I'm certain we bring more real eyeballs to watch games than most of the PAC, big 12 and ACC. The sad reality is if we languish for a decade in a dying conference that can change. I don't think we need to be Campbell top ten awesome to have a lot of real viewers, we had it with CPR when we had inconsistent results.
My current town of Burbank has about the same population as Sioux city or Cedar Rapids. It probably has 500x less college football fans. I mean it is RADICALLY less.
In Sioux City or Cedar Rapids maybe 1 in 3 people watch college football. In the areas of LA I've lived in I'd say 1 in 2000 might watch, maybe 1 in 3000. I've never met another fan of any team in 7 years. I have two NFL fan friends I tried to get interested.
I've noticed the same. It's tougher to bring an NFL fan to college level fandom because the skill level is lower and it's hard for them to appreciate the game for what it is based on college affiliation, rivalries, and tradition. Similarly, I would be a hard sell to develop interest in High School football for basically the same reasons.
Yep, I’d settle for a Pac 12 Big 12 alignment. Still would mostly have road trips annually with KSU, KU, OSU, Tech, TCU. Travel wouldn’t be too much different if we play those teams annually.
Not confident we would keep Campbell long term and recruiting would become much more difficult. That part really sucks.
Not confident we would keep Campbell long term and recruiting would become much more difficult. That part really sucks.
Fans are irrelevant for every aspect of conference realignment. I've run across very few fans from any conference that wants a 24 team conference.
Yeah, after experiencing 8 to 12 to 10 teams in a league, from a competition standpoint 10 was the best by far.
I don't think the money is similar...
ASU, Ari, Colo, Utah, osu, wsu + 8 b12 + byu + hou = $400M/year? $25M/school?
Just don't see it... I think it's a nice conf, and makes more than other options.. but I don't think it is competitive with the $60M+ expected to be made by b10, sec. And it is unlikely to be equal to what we make today. But it would be a decent option while we wait for more chaos.
Poland was my first thought but I didn’t have anything for OU and Texas.FIFY!
Well as Chris has said, these networks still need inventory. We won't sniff what the SEC gets, but getting 35-40 million during a renegotiation doesn't seem far fetched since since amounts are going up as we see with the SEC, and the Big 10 will probably increase as well.
So what schools from the Pac 12 are in the mix for this great marriage between the Pac 12 and Big 10?
I would gather its USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, but who are the other two schools, they can only add 6 any more just does not work schedule wise with 22. So is it CO and Utah, or is it Cal and Stanford.
Depending on the 2 teams left out, if the Big 12 picked up the 2 Arizona schools, the other two left out of the big 10 merger schools, and then add say BYU, that would not be bad. Not 35 to 40 million a year worth, but we might stay within 10 million of where we are currently at.
I would gather its USC, UCLA, Oregon and Washington, but who are the other two schools, they can only add 6 any more just does not work schedule wise with 22. So is it CO and Utah, or is it Cal and Stanford.
Depending on the 2 teams left out, if the Big 12 picked up the 2 Arizona schools, the other two left out of the big 10 merger schools, and then add say BYU, that would not be bad. Not 35 to 40 million a year worth, but we might stay within 10 million of where we are currently at.
I don't know about all this attendance stuff and I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn last night...BUT I have started doing the horns down at least twice a day and feel much better....that's all.
You are correct, TV money would be a huge dropoff from our current one. PAC 12 is not doing well WITH Oregon, USC and UW.
People think the Arizona schools and Colorado are valuable, but they just aren't. They have good name recognition, but in the end nobody watches them. BYU is worth significantly more.
ok... but the $60M in TV money (not full conference payout which includes bowls, playoff, ncaa tourn, etc.) that the sec is projecting is the "new" money. I really think the conference outlined (pac/B12 - top brands + byu&hou) is much closer to the current AAC (~$5M TV money only) than it is to the current B12 (~$25M tv money only). Let's say TV deals are doubling... AAC goes to $10M.. maybe the we get $15M? Don't think we get to our current $25M.
Here's a Pac12 question. They are on the slide, but is this temporary slump or is it a unavoidable decline?
Not that long ago, USC and UCLA were a big deal, and the Pac12 was well regarded, on a par with the other conferences and maybe even above some. They were huge national brands. It's only the past 10ish years that their teams have floundered a bit and their media revenue has lagged.
I tend to think most things are cyclical. What if they get a couple good coaches at USC and UCLA and they start winning again? What if their new commish gets it right and either dumps or fixes the Pac12 network, and revenue rises? Remember Larry Scott was driving their bus into the ditch for a LONG time (11 years).
Honestly as I think about it, if ISU gets into the PAC12, it might be getting in at the bottom - in 10 years time it might be just as strong a conference as any other.
Not that long ago, USC and UCLA were a big deal, and the Pac12 was well regarded, on a par with the other conferences and maybe even above some. They were huge national brands. It's only the past 10ish years that their teams have floundered a bit and their media revenue has lagged.
I tend to think most things are cyclical. What if they get a couple good coaches at USC and UCLA and they start winning again? What if their new commish gets it right and either dumps or fixes the Pac12 network, and revenue rises? Remember Larry Scott was driving their bus into the ditch for a LONG time (11 years).
Honestly as I think about it, if ISU gets into the PAC12, it might be getting in at the bottom - in 10 years time it might be just as strong a conference as any other.
USC probably needs a new coach and will get one soon, but honestly Oregon, UCLA, Colorado, Utah and even Cal are on the up.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
It's entirely possible that Big 12 schools could announce their intention to join another conference after the current media rights agreement expires, which would put the ball in the SEC's court.
The thought of adding Houston makes me cringe. Their football team drew about 25k last year. If Baylor, TCU and Tech would be part of the new conference, I don't see a need to add a 4th Texas school in Houston. I like BYU. I would also definitely consider San Diego State, UNLV, Boise and Memphis before Houston. I would even give more consideration to Colorado State, Air Force and Wyoming.
I 100% agree with your premise on Big12 & Pac12 merger if the Big10 poaches the top 6 Pac12 teams. The 6 schools you mention are part of the AAU organization, IMO Colorado and Arizona would also get strong consideration for the Big 10 since they are AAU schools as well. It would be interesting if Nebraska feels secure in the Big10 if there is future realignment. They are now the only Big10 school not part of AAU.
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IMO inventory is overrated and maybe a thing of the past. Seems to me OU/UT to the SEC signifies ESPN is looking to maximize viewership per game on its linear networks: ESPN, ESPN2, ESPNU, ESPN News and ABC.
I watched a lot of football & hoops games over the last couple years on streaming channels where commercial time was an ESPN banner. Just not convinced there is strong traditional media advertising $ out there for ESPN+ programming & some secondary linear channels, regardless whose responsibility it is to sell.
IMO ESPN/Fox are going to invest big $ to fill in the 10-12 games they need each Saturday to fill their linear networks. After that non Big10, ACC & SEC conferences are going to have to expect a non-traditional approach by ESPN - maybe subscription based revenue for schools. ESPN is required to make minimal upfront media rights investment. I am sure ESPN has learned a decent amount from the ESPN+ experiment with Big12. Would be curious their viewership for Big12 basketball games on ESPN+ vs. ESPN linear.
