Points well taken. My point is 'market footprint' is no longer consolidated around metropolitan boundaries, but is now a world-wide market of branding.
Big 12 Expansion - Looking at Numbers
- Thread starter AppleCornCy
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If the Pac12 and Big12 remnants come together, I think only KU, ISU, Okie State and maybe K-State or TT are considered
If Pac12 would take Baylor or TCU, then they would have to strongly consider BYU.
Also I see no way Houston is a fit for Pac12. IMO they would consider SDSU and UNLV first.
Here's one possibility for the future: The Supreme Court decision will eventually lead to some schools paying student-athletes a part-time stipend equal to what teaching assistants get, which would cost each school that does so around $10-$15 million. (I'm assuming women's golf is going to be paid the same as football.) The NCAA will then reorganize its divisions into D1 (scholarship+stipend), D2 (scholarship only), D3 (non-scholarship). The question then will not be whether ISU remains in a P5-conference or not, but whether it remains in D1 or not. There won't be a clear prestige division within the new D1 as there is now between P5/G5. I think that's why Texas & OU jumped in the first place: To pay these stipends in the future without disrupting their existing budget.
The PAC12 does have certain academic requirements, they aren’t as strict as AAU status but are a notch below. TCU meets that but Baylor doesn’t. TCU, while religious, has an imagine of not being as strict in its regards as Baylor. TCU was getting discussed when UT was looking last time so it not an absolute no.
Great points for which I didn't fully consider. ESPN's retooling towards streaming further solidifies my point: there are untapped viewers which are no long geometrically bound. Most of which are intertwined throughout the world. That untapped potential is where Iowa State stands to even the playing field. However, if ESPN is on top of streaming, this most recent power move is so limited in scope. As I've said from the get-go, the 'sequence' of steps ESPN takes will be not only 'telling' , but may also be their fate.
If there is a disdain by other conferences for what SEC just did OR if the master plan to separate the elite is different, the next big play in this chess game will be what the other P5s do as a unit onto themselves. This is so much bigger than ISU, but I still maintain ISU has the resources to make this profitable for the elite group.
UCF and USF probably have the greatest growth potential of any of the realistic candidates. The schools are huge and have a ton of alumni. Attendance is growing and trending towards Big 12 levels. Their markets and the state of Florida overall are growing.
It’s happened before in Florida where a team came out of nowhere to be a power. Florida State and Miami were at about the same level as USF and UCF until the 80s.
Florida state had some good seasons starting late 60s on a consistent basis. A few before that. People seem to focus on the one small poorer stretch in the mid/late 70s.
The difference between exploiting your opportunities or letting your opportunities exploit you. ISU is at that rare stage where we must be pro-active. VERY pro-active.
Thanks for the TV market information. That was interesting. I saw an interesting analysis of Big 12 TV viewership posted on another board.
Big 12 Viewship
This points to the eyeballs on the games rather than fans attending the games. There was no information given as to the source of the report or the year being analyzed. It appears to be 2020 because there are zero views for some games which probably were canceled due to Covid. If that is the case, it would be interesting to see how things look in a normal year.
ISU looks reasonably good in comparison to the other little 8 schools. OSU looks especially good even when compared to OU and TX. KU is the worst but there is no data for two games that may have been canceled. The viewership probably reflects how good the particular teams are doing and how interesting the in-conference rivalries are. For instance, the OSU / OU bedlam rivalry is huge. The ISU / Iowa game is not even reflected along with any of the non-conference games for any team. So, that could change the result somewhat. It would be interesting to see how this analysis would look for men's and women's basketball
Big 12 Viewship
This points to the eyeballs on the games rather than fans attending the games. There was no information given as to the source of the report or the year being analyzed. It appears to be 2020 because there are zero views for some games which probably were canceled due to Covid. If that is the case, it would be interesting to see how things look in a normal year.
ISU looks reasonably good in comparison to the other little 8 schools. OSU looks especially good even when compared to OU and TX. KU is the worst but there is no data for two games that may have been canceled. The viewership probably reflects how good the particular teams are doing and how interesting the in-conference rivalries are. For instance, the OSU / OU bedlam rivalry is huge. The ISU / Iowa game is not even reflected along with any of the non-conference games for any team. So, that could change the result somewhat. It would be interesting to see how this analysis would look for men's and women's basketball
It's the Big 10 or bust
Anything else will be a financial disaster. And if we add these other schools to salvage the Big 12, realignment and defections will occur w/ others within 5-10years
#ChangeMyMind
Read an interesting article recently about ESPN and media rights. It mentioned the idea of cable is dying may be true, but the streaming services are same as cable. Streaming isn't a la carte and all but a version of Sling include ESPN- same as cable. When services like YouTube started they were $35/month and within a couple of years jumped to $65.
One interesting topic in the article regarding streaming is that services like YouTube, Hulu and Fubu might not have a place in a few years. People will just buy monthly subscriptions to the media entities they watch - Disney, Universal (Peacock), Discovery, etc.
The interesting piece was if streaming goes a la carte, the article authors thought Disney/ESPN would have to charge around $45/month if the trend moves from carriage to subscription.
The other interesting aspect I hadn't considered is programming as a business marketing tool. This article focused on why it makes a lot of sense for Amazon and Apple to enter sports media rights. For example live sports would give Amazon a tool to direct sell products during contests. Aka click a tile on screen during game and product is shipped. The focus of an Amazon with sport programming would be to increase average lifetime subscriber revenue for all the goods/services they sell.
The problem I see in that line of thinking is that the real value of our fandom can't be effectively monetized until the model is PPV....and that isn't happening anytime soon if ever. Until then, programs with extensive national followings will continue to have the most value for national broadcasts. Even if they're drawing less passionate fans or casual observers, they're still drawing and it commands a premium price. I can see a different world in 2035, but not really between now and 2025. If we get crushed over the next 10 years revenuewise, 2035 when the model will be more favorable to us won't much matter.
I don't think there's any disdain as most schools would have jumped at the opportunity. However, there is fear. The net effect is the same.
It's definitely a chess match and I fully expect pushback from NCAA institutions. Schools do have some leverage, and they have more than I previously believed. #1 is how they choose to handle the playoffs. I won't go into all the scenarios because they've been discussed elsewhere, but if they spread access more equitably by granting more automatic bids from conferences, that will neuter some of the SEC's power and discourage superconferences.
#2 is a grander scheme than #1 in that the NCAA has called a constitutional convention for November. What the outcome will be I have no idea, but it will create a path for transitional change either for better or for worse. They could take actions that help level the playing field just as they did when they moved to limit scholarships...or lead to a breakaway.
It would be fascinating watch were it not for our future being in peril. And I still wouldn't write off the opportunity of an eventual B1G invite as others have done.
Money will always be an advantage, but as we've witnessed in the realm of college football, it has diminishing returns. schools like ISU and TCU are running at about 40% of what UT pulls in with more success. And with the recent actions of SEC/ESPN/UT/OU, every conference should be concerned about their cash cows getting poached. That is IMO what will be driving decisions.
So, root for things to go a la carte sooner than later? Because no way in hell am I paying $45 for SEC games. ESPN has just been hiding with the other cable stations in symbiosis. Used to be that everyone wanted ESPN and not the other cable stations…this realignment move changes things for me.
I mean, the only people that gain an advantage from our numbers not looking bad is us. Fox and the Big Ten and Pac would all benefit from our numbers looking worse than they are because it could be a great bargaining tactic against a school that’s already against the ropes.
Those are the fascinating parts of the equation. Passionate fans will probably fork over the $45. The casual observer, not so much. That would indicate that we are reaching a peak in terms of what networks are willing to pay.
But if someone like Amazon comes in and technology evolves to the point where relevant ads can be served on an individual basis, not only is the sky the limit, but traditional networks will be toast.
I don't think any amount of internet chatter will make one iota of difference when it comes time for the powers to actually make a decision. It is fun and cathartic to speculate and postulate though.
