Big 12 Championship Game Computer Projection

[xr4ticlone]

Texas has to flop hard to miss the B12 CG...and IMHO I don't think they can drop off that far given how they've played as of late.

OU still has OSU (always a toss up) and WVU left...as well as TCU.

I'd love to beat UT for the 2nd time in Dallas this winter!

 

[mj4cy]

We are kind of back to where we were last year. Traded wins of OU/TCU with OSU/WVU.

That TCU loss is going to sting, but that's life.

 

[BCClone]

We are kind of back to where we were last year. Traded wins of OU/TCU with OSU/WVU.

That TCU loss is going to sting, but that's life.

If we can keep Butler and Montgomery around next year, I will be tempted to keep buying tickets even though my son will be playing some place else. That will be a fun year.

 

[Dale]

What are the chances ISU beats OU in championship game?

Massey would probably have Iowa State at a 35-45 percent chance to win that game (depending on exactly how those two teams did the rest of the season -- Massey's win percentages take MoV into consideration).

 

[mj4cy]

So if ISU wins out and Texas loses one other game, then ISU is in for sure. However, OU and UT could both be 8-1 and ISU could get left out.


Realistically, love my clones but my guess is at best we go 5-1 down the stretch and probably 4-2. That game will be tough in Austin.

 

[VeloClone]

Just out of curiosity, what are the odds that we beat both Texas and K-State this year? If that happens, CMC will have beaten every Big 12 team within the last two seasons, and I’m pretty sure ISU has never done that before.

Considering last year was the first time ISU has beaten OU during the entire history of the Big 12 I would say that is true.

 

[Tre4ISU]

Texas has to flop hard to miss the B12 CG...and IMHO I don't think they can drop off that far given how they've played as of late.

OU still has OSU (always a toss up) and WVU left...as well as TCU.

I'd love to beat UT for the 2nd time in Dallas this winter!

They only have to lose twice.

 

[cyclonepower]

If we can keep Butler and Montgomery around next year, I will be tempted to keep buying tickets even though my son will be playing some place else. That will be a fun year.

ya good thought but Butler wont be around...

 

[mj4cy]

Texas' remaining schedule:

@Okie State - probably a win, but maybe the Cowboys will get up for this one
West Virginia - Can't imagine WVU will play as bad as they did Saturday night again
@Tech - Tech is better this year so that'll be a tough game.
ISU - should be a tough matchup
@KU - yawn.

I don't know if I see 2 losses there.

 

[mj4cy]

OU's remaining schedule:

@TCU
KSU
@Tech
Okie State
KU
@WVU

That's pretty damn tough still.

OU has tiebreaker on us, so they would need 2 more losses (if we win out), to get them out of the picture.

 

[ComCY]

Texas has to flop hard to miss the B12 CG...and IMHO I don't think they can drop off that far given how they've played as of late.

OU still has OSU (always a toss up) and WVU left...as well as TCU.

I'd love to beat UT for the 2nd time in Dallas this winter!

Well, Saturday they didn't appear great. Unless we think Baylor is back, too.

 

[Dale]

I forgot to update this over the weekend since Iowa State didn't play, but here it is now:

Oklahoma: 76.8% (30.5% 1st, 46.3% 2nd)
Texas: 74.1% (54.5% 1st, 19.6% 2nd)
West Virginia: 20.1% (7.2% 1st, 12.9% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 16.2% (3.8% 1st, 12.4% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 12.4% (3.9% 1st, 8.5% 2nd)
TCU, Baylor, OSU, Kansas, KSU: < 0.5%

The most common match-ups, including ISU at #2:

Oklahoma/Texas: 54.3%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 10.4%
Texas/West Virginia: 10.3%
Oklahoma/West Virginia: 7.1%
Texas/Texas Tech: 5.8%
Oklahoma/Texas Tech: 4.7%
Iowa St./Texas: 3.6%
Iowa St./West Virginia: 1.5%
Texas Tech/West Virginia: 1.2%

ISU record chances, excluding championship game:

4-8: 0.0%
5-7: 1.1%
6-6: 9.1%
7-5: 31.5%
7-4 or 8-4: 42.4%
8-3 or 9-3: 15.9%

ISU odds of championship game based on pre-IW record:

7-4: 8.3%
8-3: 79.8%

And finally, impact of this week's game:

If ISU wins (ignoring other games this weekend):
Iowa St.: 24.1% (5.9% 1st, 18.2% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 5.3% (1.9% 1st, 3.4% 2nd)

If TT wins:
Texas Tech: 25.5% (8.2% 1st, 17.3% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 1.8% (0.0% 1st, 1.8% 2nd)

So yeah, kinda important.

 

[clonedlion]

So if ISU wins out and Texas loses one other game, then ISU is in for sure. However, OU and UT could both be 8-1 and ISU could get left out.


Realistically, love my clones but my guess is at best we go 5-1 down the stretch and probably 4-2. That game will be tough in Austin.

Spread for TExas is only -3 this weekend. Fishy line for Vegas. I would say TX is on upset alert this weekend.

 

[Dale]

If you want to know who else to cheer for this weekend, this is more or less the amount these teams winning increase ISU's championship game odds:

OSU over Texas: +7%
KSU over OU: +4%
Baylor over WV: +1%

 

[IASTATE07]

They only have to lose twice.

I don't trust Texas to finish out strong.

 

[ForbinsAscynt]

I’m rooting for Texas to win there next 3 and be top 5 when we come to town. By the time we show up to Texas on a 5 game winning streak it’ll be a top 25 match-up. We haven’t that type of pregame hype in a long long time.

 

[Tre4ISU]

I don't trust Texas to finish out strong.

I don't really either but WVU and ISU are all that I think could beat them so we need those to fall right. The other problem is that WVU is still ahead of us and they need to lose again so the WVU/UT game result is going to be both good and bad. The good thing is that WVU still has OU to play so we're rooting for them in the UT game and against them against OU.

 

[Tre4ISU]

I’m rooting for Texas to win there next 3 and be top 5 when we come to town. By the time we show up to Texas on a 5 game winning streak it’ll be a top 25 match-up. We haven’t that type of pregame hype in a long long time.

Root for what you want but if UT wins their next 3, they're in the CCG.

 

[cyclonepower]

Root for what you want but if UT wins their next 3, they're in the CCG.

agreed i dont see OU losing twice, so I hope Texas loses in the next 3 weeks

 

[LivntheCyLife]

I don't really either but WVU and ISU are all that I think could beat them so we need those to fall right. The other problem is that WVU is still ahead of us and they need to lose again so the WVU/UT game result is going to be both good and bad. The good thing is that WVU still has OU to play so we're rooting for them in the UT game and against them against OU.

agreed i dont see OU losing twice, so I hope Texas loses in the next 3 weeks

The one other option is I'm pretty sure ISU would win a 3-team tie-breaker with WVU and OU. So for that you need ISU to win out and then UT beat WVU and WVU beat OU. But UT losing one in the next 3 weeks provides the clearest path.