From what I've seen, you have to wrap him up and get the whole defense to flow to the ball. Ankle tackles are not going to bring him down. He has a bit of David Montgomery in his style.
Arizona State Matchup
- Thread starter werdnamanhill
- Start date
5 of the 8, and I'm pretty sure the one who threw that flag is one of the 3 no longer on that crew.
What redshirt? He's played in 7 games.
He's really good, but nobody is even close to Ashton Jeanty.
Anyone else have a feeling there's going to be a moment... maybe a 4th and mid, near mid-field where Dillingham is going to gamble and it's going to prove costly?
I just get old school "conservative" coach v. new school "analytics" coach vibes from this one.
I just get old school "conservative" coach v. new school "analytics" coach vibes from this one.
3rd & 7. ISU holding a narrow 4th qtr lead 24-21. This was likely KState's money call for this situation... *enter the Professor*
1)KSU shows a tight 5-wide empty formation. ISU shows Cover 1 man-under. Sadowsky is up on the line showing a 4-man pressure. KSU motions the RB back into the backfield to confirm the coverage. It is indeed Cover 1 (single high) man-to-man.
...except that deep safety is actually LB Jacob Ellis. KState doesn't seem to notice, and even if they did they dont want to burn their 2nd timeout.
-Meanwhile, Beau Freyeler is lined up where Ellis would be, and shifts with the RB motion (this is the man coverage tell.) He's doing everything he can to show Avery Johnson that he just the regular ol' LB in the middle w/ Ebel, and they will both be responsible for either the RB or spying Johnson, one or the other. All of this is an act on this part
-Freyler does a great job of mimicking the depth and body language of a MLB who is almost certainly not going to blitz, and I think it lulls Johnson into a sense that he doesn't need to worry about a blitz from Freyler's spot. At worst, Freyler's spot won't come for him until Johnson starts to run, something he's very used to. So he should be able to stand in and make this designed man-beater throw which shouldn't take more than 2.5 seconds to pop wide open.
(The play clock is already down to 9 seconds while Johnson is reading these cues.)
2) Right before the snap, Ellis and Freyler switch places. Except Ellis isn't going to cover the back, or spy, like Beau made it appear...he's going to blitz right up the middle.
-Avery Johnson's mind has likely told his body he should have time to stand in and make this throw. It makes this blitz in his face immediately more devastating than it would already be. Why? QBs have a tendency to favor one read over the other, sometimes it's the 1st designed read, but it's also sometimes the 2nd or 3rd. They determine their favored read by what their eyes tell them presnap.
-Not only is this human nature, but it actually makes you better at executing the throw. This is the "game slowing down" effect you hear about. Having a good sense of what's coming and what will work against it ahead of time will free up your body from the limiting effects of indecisiveness or 2nd-guessing yourself.
-A great D coordinator has a way of using your experience or comfort level against you: It's one thing to try to try to get the QB to make the wrong read. What makes Heacock a true genius is the setup. He's ACTUALLY using the fact that he knows Avery Johnson will make the CORRECT read against him. The first think you do is find the Mike and sort out your protection and identify coverage.
"#17 is the Mike...he's not blitzing...and it's Cover 1 man under." All correct, actually.
- IN THE PHOTOS BELOW, You can see Ellis circled in red coming down as Freyler quietly fades back to take his place. Johnson's eyes are likely on the snap here and he's not seeing this, but even if he does see it he certainly has no time to process what it means. At the same time, the inside DB's also slide up to press coverage depth and increase the threat of an outside blitz:
3)KSU is going to run a designed pick play for the outside receiver at the top of screen using a shallow cross. Oakley in in the bottom slot, he's going to set the key pick. The bottom outside receiver is going to run his defender out of the area the ball is going to be thrown to, and he's goin to run this clear-out straight into Beau Freyler. hoping to take Freyler out of the play too. Beau has two guys running deep to worry about, and one of them is blatantly trying to get in his way. Beau won't get to designed receiver in time. There shouldn't be anyone there for the tackle...
*except Ellis is coming straight up the middle on a perfectly timed and disguised blitz. Ebel actually has the back, not Ellis, and nobody is spying.
(In hindsight, the correct thing to do would have been to keep the RB in to block, hit the 1st read or run. But there was nothing to read that would indicate that should be the move, other than two similar-sized switched spots, which isn't really something you are even taught to notice. The only visible pressure threat was an outside blitz. The center is justifiably worried about Dom Orange whooping him or the guard 1 on 1 again, so he's going to help the guard double Orange.)
Ball is snapped, Ellis runs free right up the middle unblocked even though K State had 5 blockers against a 5 man rush... and Johnson runs 30 yards BACKWARDS in a terrified panic into his own endzone.
BOOM. Checkmate. Safety.
1)KSU shows a tight 5-wide empty formation. ISU shows Cover 1 man-under. Sadowsky is up on the line showing a 4-man pressure. KSU motions the RB back into the backfield to confirm the coverage. It is indeed Cover 1 (single high) man-to-man.
...except that deep safety is actually LB Jacob Ellis. KState doesn't seem to notice, and even if they did they dont want to burn their 2nd timeout. -Meanwhile, Beau Freyeler is lined up where Ellis would be, and shifts with the RB motion (this is the man coverage tell.) He's doing everything he can to show Avery Johnson that he just the regular ol' LB in the middle w/ Ebel, and they will both be responsible for either the RB or spying Johnson, one or the other. All of this is an act on this part
-Freyler does a great job of mimicking the depth and body language of a MLB who is almost certainly not going to blitz, and I think it lulls Johnson into a sense that he doesn't need to worry about a blitz from Freyler's spot. At worst, Freyler's spot won't come for him until Johnson starts to run, something he's very used to. So he should be able to stand in and make this designed man-beater throw which shouldn't take more than 2.5 seconds to pop wide open.
(The play clock is already down to 9 seconds while Johnson is reading these cues.)
2) Right before the snap, Ellis and Freyler switch places. Except Ellis isn't going to cover the back, or spy, like Beau made it appear...he's going to blitz right up the middle.
-Avery Johnson's mind has likely told his body he should have time to stand in and make this throw. It makes this blitz in his face immediately more devastating than it would already be. Why? QBs have a tendency to favor one read over the other, sometimes it's the 1st designed read, but it's also sometimes the 2nd or 3rd. They determine their favored read by what their eyes tell them presnap.
-Not only is this human nature, but it actually makes you better at executing the throw. This is the "game slowing down" effect you hear about. Having a good sense of what's coming and what will work against it ahead of time will free up your body from the limiting effects of indecisiveness or 2nd-guessing yourself.
-A great D coordinator has a way of using your experience or comfort level against you: It's one thing to try to try to get the QB to make the wrong read. What makes Heacock a true genius is the setup. He's ACTUALLY using the fact that he knows Avery Johnson will make the CORRECT read against him. The first think you do is find the Mike and sort out your protection and identify coverage.
"#17 is the Mike...he's not blitzing...and it's Cover 1 man under." All correct, actually.
- IN THE PHOTOS BELOW, You can see Ellis circled in red coming down as Freyler quietly fades back to take his place. Johnson's eyes are likely on the snap here and he's not seeing this, but even if he does see it he certainly has no time to process what it means. At the same time, the inside DB's also slide up to press coverage depth and increase the threat of an outside blitz:
3)KSU is going to run a designed pick play for the outside receiver at the top of screen using a shallow cross. Oakley in in the bottom slot, he's going to set the key pick. The bottom outside receiver is going to run his defender out of the area the ball is going to be thrown to, and he's goin to run this clear-out straight into Beau Freyler. hoping to take Freyler out of the play too. Beau has two guys running deep to worry about, and one of them is blatantly trying to get in his way. Beau won't get to designed receiver in time. There shouldn't be anyone there for the tackle...
*except Ellis is coming straight up the middle on a perfectly timed and disguised blitz. Ebel actually has the back, not Ellis, and nobody is spying.
(In hindsight, the correct thing to do would have been to keep the RB in to block, hit the 1st read or run. But there was nothing to read that would indicate that should be the move, other than two similar-sized switched spots, which isn't really something you are even taught to notice. The only visible pressure threat was an outside blitz. The center is justifiably worried about Dom Orange whooping him or the guard 1 on 1 again, so he's going to help the guard double Orange.)
Ball is snapped, Ellis runs free right up the middle unblocked even though K State had 5 blockers against a 5 man rush... and Johnson runs 30 yards BACKWARDS in a terrified panic into his own endzone.
BOOM. Checkmate. Safety.
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Seems like the game boils down to our ability to contain their bruiser RB vs ASU shutting down Rocco and our two pro receivers. I like our chances.
Team statistics show ASU very similar to the type of team that Kstate was.
It'll boil down to line play and turnovers... like usual.
I like our team's experience. I also like that we should have a distinct special teams advantage.
Their D line is very average. Rocco will have time for Higgins, Noel, and hopefully Brahmer.
Id
Idk if this makes me feel better or worse. We beat KSU, but mostly due to turnovers. If you look at success rate stats and a lot of analytics, they outplayed us on a down to down basis if you ignore turnovers. ASU has a fantastic turnover margin this year
K-State couldn't do anything in the fourth quarter. Our defense is playing the best it has all season (especially run defense). If Rocco plays decent, we win.
