Another Damn Simulation

[VeloClone]

Just looked it up, and last year we were 4-1 in games decided by <7 pts. In two of those games (wins against UCF and Utah) Rocco threw a Pick-6 in the second quarter. Take away those early 7 points swings and those aren't 1 score games anymore. The other Pick-6 was late in the fourth quarter against KU, which we lost by 9 - sure it impacted the score, but it didn’t impact the game like the others did.

So 3 Pick-6s on 9 INTs, two of which really impacted the game and resulted in one-score wins.

I'm torn on early pick 6s. Yes, there are easy scores where the other team doesn't have to face a Heacock defense but they also don't have the opportunity to turn a more mundane turnover into points. They could very well have gotten 7 out of the ensuing hypothetical drive. We can't just take the 7 points off the ledger.

By the same token I don't think you can say even a late pick 6 didn't impact a 9 point game. If ISU drives and gets a TD or even a FG on that drive instead of handing them a defensive TD that 9 point differential is instead ISU by 1 or ISU by 5. Now they have to add a score against the Heacock D to win it.

That being said, I vote for no more Becht pick sixes. But that may just be me...

 

[besserheimerphat]

The NCAA average in 2024 was just under 2 Pick-6s per 1,000 passes. Rocco threw over 6 Pick-6s per 1,000 passes.

I'm not trying to blame Rocco - there's a lot that has to happen to go from pass to INT to Pick-6. I'm saying that it's most likely that we simply got very unlucky in that area and should be better next year just due to regression towards the mean. Fewer Pick-6s means fewer one-score games. This goes out the window if there is something schematic that led to the Pick-6s last year, but I don't think that's the case.

 

[ElephantPie]

I DM'd him on BlueSky about this topic - ISU won their one score games last year with a lot of late heroics, but as noted an unreal number of Rocco's INTs were Pick-6s. I could argue that those one-score-late-win games would not have been classified that way without the Pick-6. I know he does a lot of work on "luck," comparing things that are/are not repeatable from one year to the next. He said he didn't have anything on Pick-6s specifically.

If I'm honest with myself, us ISU fans were feeling great about ISU after their amazing, Fiesta Bowl champions 2020 season (after ISU went 4-2 in 1 score games). Then we had high hopes for 2021 season that weren't realized (and ISU went 2-5 in 1 score games). We felt great about ISU after their 11-win 2024 season (and ISU went 5-1 in 1 score games; which includes 8pt win vs KSU). I'm protecting myself by limiting my expectations of 2025 to be more like 2021.

I can't wait for ISU to prove me a cowardly, fool for limiting expectations!

 

[ribsnwhiskey]

look, man, I've got certain information, all right? Certain things have come to light. And, you know, has it ever occurred to you, that, instead of, uh, you know, running around, uh, uh, blaming me, you know, given the nature of all this new ****, you know, I-I-I-I... this could be a-a-a-a lot more, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, complex, I mean, it's not just, it might not be just such a simple... uh, you know?

F*cking amateurs.

 

[CtownCyclone]

F*cking amateurs.

They send us a toe, we're supposed to **** ourselves.

You want a toe? I can get you a toe. With nail polish!