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Analysis of remaining games.

TrailCy

TrailCy

Well-Known Member
Mar 3, 2021
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I looked at the remaining games for the top 5 teams and their opponents total records and record for relevant home/away games. Here's the outcome:

Current leaders:
Houston Cougars 11–2
Arizona Wildcats 10–2
Iowa State Cyclones 10–3
Kansas Jayhawks 9–3
Texas Tech Red Raiders 9–4

Remaining schedule difficulty (hardest to easiest):

Arizona
Iowa State
Kansas
Texas Tech
Houston


Houston already leads AND has the easiest remaining schedule. They control the league and are the clear favorite to win the conference.

Arizona has the toughest closing stretch and most likely team to drop a couple games.

Iowa State has the second toughest finish. Unless Houston slips, our ceiling is 2nd. Winning it all is somewhat out of our hands now.

Texas Tech and Kansas hold steady.

Projected finish (schedule-adjusted):

Houston (~14–4)
Arizona (~12–5)
Iowa State (~12–6)
Texas Tech (~12–7)
Kansas (~11–6)

Our most likely result is 3rd.
 
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The nice thing is we almost still control our own destiny on winning the league. Even with those two pretty-bad losses, we can win out and win the league unless Houston also wins out, and they still have two pretty tough games (vs. Arizona, @ KU).
 
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Tech (Toppin), Arizona (Peat), and BYU (Saunders) are all dealing with pretty bad injuries. Peat isn't as bad (he's currently out at least a week but will be re-evaluated then), but Tech and BYU have major concerns.

If Peat is indeed out for a longer time frame + their hard schedule, they may drop more games than expected. I also expect Tech to drop a lot of games as their entire roster/gameplan revolved around Toppin.
 
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TrailCy said:
I looked at the remaining games for the top 5 teams and their opponents total records and record for relevant home/away games. Here's the outcome:

Current leaders:
Houston Cougars 11–2
Arizona Wildcats 10–2
Iowa State Cyclones 10–3
Kansas Jayhawks 9–3
Texas Tech Red Raiders 9–4

Remaining schedule difficulty (hardest to easiest):

Arizona
Iowa State
Kansas
Texas Tech
Houston


Houston already leads AND has the easiest remaining schedule. They control the league and are the clear favorite to win the conference.

Arizona has the toughest closing stretch and most likely team to drop a couple games.

Iowa State has the second toughest finish. Unless Houston slips, our ceiling is 2nd. Winning it all is somewhat out of our hands now.

Texas Tech and Kansas hold steady.

Projected finish (schedule-adjusted):

Houston (~14–4)
Arizona (~12–5)
Iowa State (~12–6)
Texas Tech (~12–7)
Kansas (~11–6)

Our most likely result is 3rd.
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id like to avoid the 4/5 game in KC, if possible.

Ideally.. give us the 3 with TCU being the 6 (wont happen now) so give me the 3 with UCF being the 6. Although, BYU very well could be the 6th seed.
 
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Darius Bieber said:
Tech (Toppin), Arizona (Peat), and BYU (Saunders) are all dealing with pretty bad injuries. Peat isn't as bad (he's currently out at least a week but will be re-evaluated then), but Tech and BYU have major concerns.

If Peat is indeed out for a longer time frame + their hard schedule, they may drop more games than expected. I also expect Tech to drop a lot of games as their entire roster/gameplan revolved around Toppin.
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I hate injuries, but I wouldn’t be mad to not play Saunders ever ever ever again.
 
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TrailCy said:
I looked at the remaining games for the top 5 teams and their opponents total records and record for relevant home/away games. Here's the outcome:

Current leaders:
Houston Cougars 11–2
Arizona Wildcats 10–2
Iowa State Cyclones 10–3
Kansas Jayhawks 9–3
Texas Tech Red Raiders 9–4

Remaining schedule difficulty (hardest to easiest):

Arizona
Iowa State
Kansas
Texas Tech
Houston


Houston already leads AND has the easiest remaining schedule. They control the league and are the clear favorite to win the conference.

Arizona has the toughest closing stretch and most likely team to drop a couple games.

Iowa State has the second toughest finish. Unless Houston slips, our ceiling is 2nd. Winning it all is somewhat out of our hands now.

Texas Tech and Kansas hold steady.

Projected finish (schedule-adjusted):

Houston (~14–4)
Arizona (~12–5)
Iowa State (~12–6)
Texas Tech (~12–7)
Kansas (~11–6)

Our most likely result is 3rd.
Click to expand...
When I heard unbalanced schedules I had no idea it meant not all of the teams play the same number of conference games!

Seriously, I don't get the win loss totals listed for these teams.
 
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My assumption is we likely slip up and lose a game we weren't supposed to as it's already happened twice now. Hope I'm wrong about that but we've done it too many times in the past after big wins that until they break that tendency I have to assume another disappointing loss against a lesser team is going to happen. You can't lose to teams like TCU and Cincy with as good of teams that we have at the top. If we win out we have a really good chance of winning the conference as Houston is going to lose at least 1 more somewhere. The road game at AZ is our toughest by far.

Like TJ has said, we need to focus on the day in front of us and not look past that. I think we looked past TCU with KU and Houston on deck with how we played. At the time I thought that game probably took us out of the running for the top spot but with AZ losing those 2 and us taking care of KU and Houston we definitely are in a spot to control our own destiny again.
 
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Despite two great wins at home, BYU becomes a hinge game (in Big 12 terms). I would think at worst Iowa State would be the 4 seed if they win Saturday. If not, well, there are too many mred scenarios to say what would happen. also unfortunate for planning travel is the 4 seed will play March 12th at 11:30, and the 3 seed will play at 8:30
 
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not-the-manager said:
Despite two great wins at home, BYU becomes a hinge game (in Big 12 terms). I would think at worst Iowa State would be the 4 seed if they win Saturday. If not, well, there are too many mred scenarios to say what would happen. also unfortunate for planning travel is the 4 seed will play March 12th at 11:30, and the 3 seed will play at 8:30
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I think a win there could also lock up a #2 seed in the NCAA tourney, barring a historic collapse e.g. losing to both Utah and ASU.
 
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VeloClone said:
Considering the quality across so many teams at the top of this league I would be surprised to see no ties in the 1-5 spots.

Also if this were to happen as laid out here, do BYU and Directional Florida get in? Does TCU?
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All it takes is Houston winning at KU (which I think happens) and the rest chalk for the 2/3/4/5 losses. Otherwise it's 15-3 for two and 14-4 for 2.

BYU is in regardless. In a league this good, getting to .500 should be enough. BYU is a lock. UCF just needs to get to not **** the bed. TCU COULD be in trouble if they don't get at least 10 wins because they have a nasty Q4 home loss.
 
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dahliaclone said:
All it takes is Houston winning at KU (which I think happens) and the rest chalk for the 2/3/4/5 losses. Otherwise it's 15-3 for two and 14-4 for 2.

BYU is in regardless. In a league this good, getting to .500 should be enough. BYU is a lock. UCF just needs to get to not **** the bed. TCU COULD be in trouble if they don't get at least 10 wins because they have a nasty Q4 home loss.
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Directional Florida is 46 in NET with a NET SOS at 51 and RPI SOS at 22. They are 8-7 in Q1&2 with their only Q2 loss to WVU (a Q2a game).
TCU is 48 in NET with a NET SOS of 31 and RPI SOS at 73. They are 7-8 in Q1&2 with their worst losses to New Orleans (Q4), Notre Dame (Q3) and at Utah (Q2b).

Yeah, TCU has some work to do.
 
VeloClone said:
Directional Florida is 46 in NET with a NET SOS at 51 and RPI SOS at 22. They are 8-7 in Q1&2 with their only Q2 loss to WVU (a Q2a game).
TCU is 48 in NET with a NET SOS of 31 and RPI SOS at 73. They are 7-8 in Q1&2 with their worst losses to New Orleans (Q4), Notre Dame (Q3) and at Utah (Q2b).

Yeah, TCU has some work to do.
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Yet TCU has wins over Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa State. I've said this many times, but I don't understand how teams like TCU and UCF are so firmly on the bubble with those wins yet a team like Iowa is easily in at a 7/8/9 seed with wins over...Nebraska and UCLA and Indiana but losses to Minnesota and Maryland
 
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CYdTracked said:
My assumption is we likely slip up and lose a game we weren't supposed to as it's already happened twice now. Hope I'm wrong about that but we've done it too many times in the past after big wins that until they break that tendency I have to assume another disappointing loss against a lesser team is going to happen. You can't lose to teams like TCU and Cincy with as good of teams that we have at the top. If we win out we have a really good chance of winning the conference as Houston is going to lose at least 1 more somewhere. The road game at AZ is our toughest by far.

Like TJ has said, we need to focus on the day in front of us and not look past that. I think we looked past TCU with KU and Houston on deck with how we played. At the time I thought that game probably took us out of the running for the top spot but with AZ losing those 2 and us taking care of KU and Houston we definitely are in a spot to control our own destiny again.
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If we slip up, I hope it is in the Big 12 tournament, not the end of the season or in the NCAA tournament.
 
Iowa seems to be getting credit for moral victories e.g. almost beat ISU, almost beat Purdue once, etc.
 
dahliaclone said:
Yet TCU has wins over Florida, Wisconsin, and Iowa State. I've said this many times, but I don't understand how teams like TCU and UCF are so firmly on the bubble with those wins yet a team like Iowa is easily in at a 7/8/9 seed with wins over...Nebraska and UCLA and Indiana but losses to Minnesota and Maryland
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Iowa is 26 in NET with a NET SOS at 59 and RPI SOS at 92. They are 8-6 in Q1&2 with their worst loss being Maryland (Q3).

In addition to their pretty bad SOS (especially RPI) their most glaring issue is their 3-5 Q1 record. Compare to Directional Florida at 4-6 and TCU at 5-7.
 
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