All 256 Potential Outcomes for Week 14 Games

[cymac2408]

 

[Cydwinder]

And if no clear winner emerges from all of this, a two man sack race will be held on consecutive Sundays until a champion is crowned.

 

[Die4Cy]

And if no clear winner emerges from all of this, a two man sack race will be held on consecutive Sundays until a champion is crowned.

Is that tiebreaker before or after a best of 5 Oreo twist-off to determine who gets the filling?

 

[nrg4isu]

I think if Colorado wins Friday, it nearly eliminates KSU. If KState had less motivation, that would be nice.

 

[Big_Sill]

Emotional hedge engaged

 

[stateofmind]

Emotional hedge engaged

View attachment 138505

I don't understand why you put ISU in there.

 

[Cyched]

I don't understand why you put ISU in there.

That appears to be the scenario where ISU wins but doesn't get in.

 

[Cyched]

Also looking at this...Baylor winning would do us a lot of good if BYU somehow doesn't win. I don't see WV beating Tech

 

[stateofmind]

That appears to be the scenario where ISU wins but doesn't get in.

I always bet against ISU to hedge my sorrow.

 

[Proton]

This is from the Football Flowchart twitter account. It has 72 followers, so I’m pretty sure it’s legit.

 

[Cycsk]

Okay, so with 8 remaining games there were "only" 256 scenarios to plug into MRED. I did cheat a little bit and assumed that the results of the Utah/UCF game will not have an impact. I did do this manually, so there may be a few errors but it should be pretty close. This does not account for probability of winning for any team - this is strictly looking at all potential outcomes and the resulting CCG matchup.

Summary:

• The OSU/CU game won't really tell us anything on Friday. There are a few more scenarios that put ISU in the CCG if OSU wins, but in all it's just not that important. However an OSU victory would increase the scenarios where ISU is the home team in the CCG.
• There are 6 scenarios in which ISU could beat KSU and still not make the CCG. All include victories by Colorado, Texas Tech, Arizona State and Houston. As long as that specific combination does not happen, ISU will be in the CCG by beating KSU. Root for BYU and WVU next weekend - as long as one of them wins, we avoid the Doomsday Scenario.
  • If somehow those four teams all win, then we need Baylor AND Cincinnati to win to give us a Colorado @ ISU championship.
• There are 0 scenarios where ISU loses to KSU and still makes the CCG. ISU must win.
• The most frequent CCG scenario is ISU @ ASU, followed by BYU @ ISU. There are some weird things that could result in Baylor @ ISU or WVU @ ISU. There's a path for a WVU @ Kansas CCG. Typo - was KSU not Kansas.

Updated to incorporate early money lines (charts at bottom)
I used the aggregated lines from VSiN. I'm not a bettor so I don't know how valid that is, but they were one of the two odds aggregators listed on Circa Sports. I converted the moneylines to "implied probability" for each team, then combined those with the scenarios to determine the likelihood of each scenario. From that I can add up the likelihoods for each scenario that is favorable to get ISU's overall chances at least according to sportsbooks.

• ISU is 53.2% to make the championship; about 3X more likely to do so as the "visitor."
• Our most likely opponents in order are Arizona State, BYU, and Colorado.

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Outcomes as of Sunday, 11/24
View attachment 138487

Outcome after Friday's OSU/CU game:
View attachment 138488

The 6 "Doomsday Scenarios" for ISU:
View attachment 138489

Scenarios for each team:
(Found a typo that incorrectly said Kansas had a path. Should have been KSU).
View attachment 138501

Possible CCG scenarios:
(Found a typo that incorrectly said Kansas had a path. Should have been KSU).
View attachment 138503

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Updated Charts

Team	Money Line	Implied Probability
Oklahoma State	541	13.3%
Colorado	-805	86.7%
Utah	265	25.2%
UCF	-333	74.8%
TCU	-138	56.0%
Cincinnati	117	44.0%
Kansas	-104	48.6%
Baylor	-116	51.4%
Arizona	262	25.5%
Arizona State	-329	74.5%
Texas Tech	-167	60.5%
WVU	141	39.5%
ISU	-143	56.7%
KSU	120	43.3%
BYU	-583	83.0%
Houston	414	17.0%

View attachment 138519

View attachment 138518

 

[Nor'MidWester]

Here's the same thing straight from the conference website: https://big12sports.com/news/2024/1...football-championship-tiebreakers-update.aspx

Hey mred, how's the traffic been on your website the last couple weeks? Just curious how many more eyeballs it's getting with all this tie breaker chaos lol.

 

[cyclones500]

This is like the 1976 Big 8 standings on steroids.

 

[OscarBerkshire]

Neal Brown if you can hear me

 

[bosco]

I think if Colorado wins Friday, it nearly eliminates KSU. If KState had less motivation, that would be nice.

You would like to think but I feel they will be heavily motivated to knock us out of the CCG. Because they're dicks. Joking, that's what we would do in their positions, but really they're dicks.

 

[ZorkClone]

What is the earliest in the day we can know whether our game is a guaranteed play in game? The earliest I can find is if WVU beats TTU, then it doesn't matter whether if BYU loses.

 

[convoluteme]

What is the earliest in the day we can know whether our game is a guaranteed play in game? The earliest I can find is if WVU beats TTU, then it doesn't matter whether if BYU loses.

The earliest would be an OSU win on Friday. If CU wins then the next is WVU-TTU on Saturday.

 

[CheapClone1202]

This is wrong, right?

 

[Drew0311]

I finally opened this thread and it's math and stuff. It's monday morning. I appreciate the effort.

 

[Cyclonsin]

This is wrong, right?

Yes, it's wrong. Some of them are right, so I think some random redditor (where the info was sourced from) gave it their best shot but messed up quite a few of the scenarios.