After much thought, my best-case, realistic realignment scenario.

[cyIclSoneU]

Pretty optimistic that anyone would think KU/WVU are more desirable than Iowa State. Our numbers and academics put us in a far more desirable overall spot.

I would happily make a bet with anyone that WVU goes to the ACC and the other bettor gets ISU. It’s a wash if neither or both go there. I’m confident I wouldn’t lose.

As for KU I could easily see them sent to the ACC over us based on hoops. I could see us beating them out for it too if there really was a spot #16 open, but it could go either way. Hence “worst case scenario.”

 

[Beyerball]

The argument of "The PAC needs to add some Central time zone Big 12 schools" I'm no longer believing will happen.

The PAC and BIG will resume their previous idea of a PAC/BIG scheduling alliance...This will allow PAC to have 2 games Non conf vs BIG teams and the central time zone...Central time zone problem solved.. PAC commish has already hinted at this..

The more I think about this the more convinced I am that the existing Big 8 schools will stay and try to grab teams and that's it..

 

[madguy30]

One thing is for sure in all of this.

With so many scenarios, open letter season has been pretty busy.

 

[CyBobby]

Just trying to calm this storm. We should be focusing on our top 10 team rather than something that literally no one has any idea how it will shake out. Not trying to be overly critical of you, just think it would be better for us to focus on what we can control rather than ruminate in anxiety for another month.

BUT THATS JUST THE PROBLEM....The Lonely eight CANNOT CONTROL ANYTHING.....
WORST CASE SCENARIO...The SEC & the B1G gobble up all the good teams and the rest of the teams become IRRELEVANT FOR ALL TIME!

 

[TXCyclones]

If you scrapped the conferences entirely and started over Iowa State is easily in the Top 48. The problem is that the other P4 conference partners will stick together and our "partners" ****ed us. We still easily belong in a group of 64, but time will tell if anything lives up to "reason".

 

[CyLyte2]

I think the Big 12 holds together(maybe excepting WVU) and adds two(or if necessary 3) teams. The remaining 8(or 7) split the massive legal windfall to subsidize their programs at their current level as long as they can hoping to grow the brand enough to get a bigger payout later.

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

BUT THATS JUST THE PROBLEM....The Lonely eight CANNOT CONTROL ANYTHING.....
WORST CASE SCENARIO...The SEC & the B1G gobble up all the good teams and the rest of the teams become IRRELEVANT FOR ALL TIME!

Yeah that was my original fear but I don't even think they're stupid enough to try that. They being esoteric rich people.

 

[I@ST1]

I think the Big 12 holds together(maybe excepting WVU) and adds two(or if necessary 3) teams. The remaining 8(or 7) split the massive legal windfall to subsidize their programs at their current level as long as they can hoping to grow the brand enough to get a bigger payout later.

If you think there is going to be a “massive” windfall that could subsidize our Athletic Department for more than a year or two. You are crazy. You need to be more realistic.

 

[HFCS]

I think it's better than a coin flip it could happen. Unless a blue blood ( basically none left outside Clemson, ND, MAYBE Florida State decide to jump ship) Pac 12 doesn't have the punching power it did in the past plus geographically they would need to add more than two teams from California to make it feasible IMO.

Pac 12 has not thrived since last realignment. They aren't sitting pretty without expanding and getting visibility in central time zone is outweighs the negatives.

A large PAC big 12 merger could also survive sec or big ten thinking they need to be NFL Jr adding a few marquee teams.

 

[CyLyte2]

If you think there is going to be a “massive” windfall that could subsidize our Athletic Department for more than a year or two. You are crazy. You need to be more realistic.

Maybe you are crazy. Bet you didn't think of that.

 

[ForeverIowan]

The argument of "The PAC needs to add some Central time zone Big 12 schools" I'm no longer believing will happen.

The PAC and BIG will resume their previous idea of a PAC/BIG scheduling alliance...This will allow PAC to have 2 games Non conf vs BIG teams and the central time zone...Central time zone problem solved.. PAC commish has already hinted at this..

The more I think about this the more convinced I am that the existing Big 8 schools will stay and try to grab teams and that's it..

Why would they not just try to cut the fat right off the bone? If they do a merger they won't keep the conferences as currently constructed IMO. Either the major players in the Pac 12 join the Big Ten or vice versa. In this new era the Washington States and Oregon States may not have a home at the "highest level".

Hell maybe the top 6 or 7 from each conference form to make a new entity/conference.

West: Washington, Oregon, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, Arizona

East: Ohio State, Michigan, Notre Dame (added), Penn State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska

The amount of money a 14 team conference with those players would pull would be unreal.

 

[harimad]

If Fox wanted to make counter powerplay, they'd try and get some of the teams from the ACC to leave to the Big 12 with a new fat Fox media deal. Get eight ACC schools with eight Big 12 to form a new 16 team conference. With eight schools leaving the ACC, would that be enough to end the ACC grant of rights?

Ain't no "good" (aka big $$$) teams coming here, rofl.

 

[ISUCyclones2015]

The two most appealing teams left for the BIG or Pac are Iowa State and Kansas.

I think Oklahoma State would like to have a word. Particularly the PAC part of the equation. Curious where they would be if they didn't have sugar daddy Pickens all those years though

 

[SolarGarlic]

I'm trying to imagine the immensity of the mess that would cause with all the contracts involved. Not only would you have the difficulty and expense of extracting all those teams from their obligations, but then you'd have to hope that you could negotiate a completely new contract for the conference (presumably the SEC) that covered all your expenditures and provided the compensation levels that would make all the new members happy. And if you're ESPN, you probably killed the value of many of the contracts you are obligated for.

Yeah, I thought it was obvious I wasn't really thinking very hard about it actually happening

 

[SolarGarlic]

The argument of "The PAC needs to add some Central time zone Big 12 schools" I'm no longer believing will happen.

The PAC and BIG will resume their previous idea of a PAC/BIG scheduling alliance...This will allow PAC to have 2 games Non conf vs BIG teams and the central time zone...Central time zone problem solved.. PAC commish has already hinted at this..

The more I think about this the more convinced I am that the existing Big 8 schools will stay and try to grab teams and that's it..

This has always seemed like the most likely scenario, unfortunately.

From a competition perspective, you really only lose Oklahoma. Replacing Texas with Cincy would be a net positive from an on the field football standpoint. But obviously replacing your six-time defending champ is a huge loss. The Big 12 would still have 2-3 teams in the top 25.

I know looking at it from a competition perspective misses the point of all of this, but that's how I'm wired. The business side has sucked everything out of college sports that I loved.

 

[TXCyclones]

Pac 12 has not thrived since last realignment. They aren't sitting pretty without expanding and getting visibility in central time zone is outweighs the negatives.

A large PAC big 12 merger could also survive sec or big ten thinking they need to be NFL Jr adding a few marquee teams.

The PAC has not thrived while the B1G has. This really promotes the idea that there’s no benefit to the B1G going west. There just doesn’t seem to be enough viewer interest in more than a couple teams: USC and Oregon. (We look like one and we just beat the other)

 

[CyLyte2]

I think Oklahoma State would like to have a word. Particularly the PAC part of the equation. Curious where they would be if they didn't have sugar daddy Pickens all those years though

Their AD is less valuable than ours. People have to get this idea out of their head that we're "poor little ISU". First off it's wrong and secondly it's not helpful.

 

[cyIclSoneU]

Their AD is less valuable than ours. People have to get this idea out of their head that we're "poor little ISU". First off it's wrong and secondly it's not helpful.

I believe their AD makes more money than ours and has done so for literally every year of its existence, let alone of the Big 12 era.

We are not the pitiful athletic department that we were in the 90s but we should be realistic too.

 

[Clonehomer]

This has always seemed like the most likely scenario, unfortunately.

From a competition perspective, you really only lose Oklahoma. Replacing Texas with Cincy would be a net positive from an on the field football standpoint. But obviously replacing your six-time defending champ is a huge loss. The Big 12 would still have 2-3 teams in the top 25.

Replace Cincy with BYU and I can get behind it. Texas was valuable for name purposes even if they didn't do it on the field. BYU has a fan following that isn't far off of Texas. Replacing OU will be more difficult as they kept the conference relevant on the field

 

[CyLyte2]

I believe their AD makes more money than ours and has done so for literally every year of its existence, let alone of the Big 12 era.

We are not the pitiful athletic department that we were in the 90s but we should be realistic too.

In 2019(latest figures I can find) we were 44 and they were 45 in value. Essentially tied.