Adversity

[Cyclones125]

R E L A X

We were 2.5 pt dogs at Arizona, should've been a great W but just got unlucky.

K-State may be the most talented 9-11 team of all time, their coach just sucks. They shot very well from 3 with some guys who had bad 3pt% on the season. We played bad, got smoked. One bad loss. Milan will be back.

 

[Letterkenny]

Goodness, you thought the Arizona game was one of our BEST? We had 18 TO's and only 12 assists. 12-18 from the free throw line. Gave up a massive momentum swinging 16-0 run.

Yes, the dudes were tough and made some REALLY clutch plays down the stretch, and we absolutely should have won, but there were some less-than-ideal trends in that game that we've been seeing for weeks, including the lack of ball movement during scoring droughts and absolutely mind-numbing unforced turnovers, including 3 backbreakers in a row in OT.

Which games were better? That was a top 15 team, on the road.

 

[ClubCy]

Need Nojus to play in the absence of Milan

How come? What’s he proven?

 

[Letterkenny]

How come? What’s he proven?

He's shown he's willing to at least pull the trigger when he's open.

 

[Erik4Cy]

2024 Iowa State football was so damn impressive to me from a "responding to adversity" standpoint.

Several times having to comeback from behind, several impressive road performances, injuries (didn't we have like 7th or 8th on depth chart LBs in at one point?)

Really would like to see ISU bball do the same. It's a gut check point time in the season. Hopefully they respond and get back to doing what got them there.

 

[ClubCy]

He's shown he's willing to at least pull the trigger when he's open.

Against who and when? Garbage time against Jacksonville state?

He’s shooting 35% from the floor 15% from 3 and 54% from the line.

I like his potential but he isn’t the answer you are looking for.

 

[Letterkenny]

Against who and when? Garbage time against Jacksonville state?

He’s shooting 35% from the floor 15% from 3 and 54% from the line.

I like his potential but he isn’t the answer you are looking for.

Yes

 

[coolerifyoudid]

TJ’s quote:
“There’s a point in the game where it was 15-to-zero points in the paint, and that’s a care, that’s a pride, that’s a fight, that’s a physical (thing). And to me, that was indicative of our effort, our energy, and us not playing anywhere near our standard.”

Dad ain’t mad, but he’s crazy disappointed

TJ was obviously as fired up as I'd seen him in game, and the team seemed to lose their composure once adversity hit. Both things are really really rare for this team.

My guess: I think the guys put too much pre-game emphasis on the result of Saturday's game based on what happened last year. Fans were keyed in for this one, I imagine the players and coaches were too, regardless of what they say.

I think we flip over the Etch-A-Sketch, shake it, and start a new streak tonight.

LFG!

 

[not-the-manager]

R E L A X

We were 2.5 pt dogs at Arizona, should've been a great W but just got unlucky.

K-State may be the most talented 9-11 team of all time, their coach just sucks. They shot very well from 3 with some guys who had bad 3pt% on the season. We played bad, got smoked. One bad loss. Milan will be back.

I can’t find the tweet, but either coming into Saturday (so, now four games of utter domination) or following their win, Kansas State—analytically—had/has been the best team in the country their last three games. Iowa State still should’ve won, but talk about playing a team at its peak.

As far as this thread more generally, I heard something interesting last night. BTN analysts were talking about Oregon after their loss to Nebraska, and John Beilein said something along the lines of, Obviously there is plenty of time to snap out of their rough patch, but the urgency/commitment/willingness to adapt has to be player-led, vs. a rough stretch in December, which he believes can be corrected by coaches (given how much time there is to work on things). I don’t see anyone getting minutes for ISU who lacks commitment or toughness. But Otz explicitly said Saturday they’ve been lacking vocal leadership recently. Hopefully someone steps up, or the team gets together to reiterate their goals and admit why they’re falling short. We saw Saturday—at least in-game, we probably are (as Beilein believes) at the point where coaches can’t drag a team across the finish line

 

[cyfan92]

Getting a 1 seed matters far far far more than most think



source: https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/

1 seeds have roughly the same odds to advance one round farther than as a 2 seed. 1 seeds have better odds to make the E8 than a 3 seed has to make the S16..

 

[cyclones500]

Against who and when? Garbage time against Jacksonville state?

I think you mean Jackson State.

(**Ducks**)

 

[RagingCloner]

Yeah, not sure to this extent. Adversity was a terrible game against West Virginia or a buzzer beater in Arizona. Its hard to imagine what happened Saturday against kstate is going to help the team.

based on TJ's postgame comments, I would guess some of the things they have been trying to fix for some time, but havent needed too because they've kept winning, and now he has their focus and attention. At least that is what he seemed to imply, and my take on it, however it has been confirmed that i dont know ****

 

[ClubCy]

I think you mean Jackson State.

(**Ducks**)

Probably! That’s how insignificant that game was!

 

[cyclones500]

Getting a 1 seed matters far far far more than most think

View attachment 142459

source: https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/

1 seeds have roughly the same odds to advance one round farther than as a 2 seed. 1 seeds have better odds to make the E8 than a 3 seed has to make the S16..

Definitely makes a difference, especially if targeting national title. Final Four stats slightly more "forgiving," but still almost 2-to-1.

Personally even with our top 5 rank since preseason, my personal thought has been "reach Final Four -- then see what happens."

 

[MJ271]

Getting a 1 seed matters far far far more than most think

View attachment 142459

source: https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/

1 seeds have roughly the same odds to advance one round farther than as a 2 seed. 1 seeds have better odds to make the E8 than a 3 seed has to make the S16..

I definitely think it matters, but I'm curious how much of the effects are because 1 seeds are typically better than 2 seeds, who are better than 3 seeds, etc. That is, if you have a team that is the quality of a 1 seed, but had some bad, maybe unlucky losses and was a 2/3/4 seed, how much does the seed really hurt their championship odds?

The example I'm thinking of here is UConn in the 2023 tournament. They were a 4 seed who had a really bad stretch in the regular season, losing 6/8 games at one point, but Barttorvik still had them as the #5 team in the country going into the tournament. They proved it by destroying everyone they faced in the tournament, though they got kind of a lucky path only facing one team seeded better than they were and no one who was better than them on Barttorvik.

 

[RagingCloner]

Getting a 1 seed matters far far far more than most think

View attachment 142459

source: https://www.betfirm.com/seeds-national-championship-odds/

1 seeds have roughly the same odds to advance one round farther than as a 2 seed. 1 seeds have better odds to make the E8 than a 3 seed has to make the S16..

Thanks for putting this together, this is extremely interesting. Is this data from every tourney thats ever been played?

 

[alarson]

based on TJ's postgame comments, I would guess some of the things they have been trying to fix for some time, but havent needed too because they've kept winning, and now he has their focus and attention. At least that is what he seemed to imply, and my take on it, however it has been confirmed that i dont know ****

Makes me wish we had the normal 4 days between Sat-Wed instead of having to immediately turn around and get on the bus for Lawrence.

 

[cyclones500]

Thanks for putting this together, this is extremely interesting. Is this data from every tourney thats ever been played?

Based on the story link it looks like since 1985 (beginning of 64-team era) since it lists 1 thru 16. Unless records for some lines are calculated back to 1979, first season tourney was seeded.

 

[RagingCloner]

Based on the story link it looks like since 1985 (beginning of 64-team era) since it lists 1 thru 16. Unless records for some lines are calculated back to 1979, first season tourney was seeded.

Thanks!

So here is some quick math ive done. Since NIL has become a thing(2021), there is substantially more parity in this tournament than before.

Here is a real quick breakdown ive found. its a 50/50 shot for 1-2 seeds and everyone else. a 1 or 2 seed has made it to the final weekend 6/12 times. a non 1 or 2 seed has also made it 6/12 times.

While a 1 or 2 seed does help somewhat, I dont believe its the end of the world if we dont get a 1. I have a hard time believing we dont at least get a 2

 

[AllInForISU]

Need Nojus to play in the absence of Milan

Based on what exactly?