***2026 Minnesota Vikings***

[NoCreativity]

Justin Jefferson — With vs. Without Kirk Cousins (Regular Season)​

Situation	Games (GP)	Receptions (REC)	Targets (TRG)*	Receiving Yards (YDS)	Yards Per Game (Y/G)	Yards Per Rec (AVG)	Touchdowns (TD)	TDs per Game
With Cousins	54	354	~500+ (varies by source)	5,338	~98.9	15.1	28	~0.52
Without Cousins	29	175	~250+ (varies)	2,622	~90.4	15.0	13	~0.45

*Target totals vary slightly depending on database, but final production rates are stable.

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Key Takeaways​

• Jefferson’s production dips slightly without Cousins — but not dramatically.
• He still averages ~90 yards per game without Cousins, which is elite WR1 production.
• His efficiency (yards per catch) barely changes (15.1 → 15.0), showing his route-running and YAC ability are QB-independent.
• Touchdown rate declines a bit, suggesting Cousins’ timing and trust in the red zone matters.

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Now, Side-by-Side Summary (with their QBs)​

Player	With QB (Y/G)	Without QB (Y/G)	Change	TD/Game With	TD/Game Without
Ja’Marr Chase	~91.4	~70.6	Significant drop	0.81 → 0.42	Larger drop
Justin Jefferson	~98.9	~90.4	Mild drop	0.52 → 0.45	Small drop

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Interpretation​

• Chase’s production is much more tied to Burrow — their chemistry + timing is core to his usage.
• Jefferson remains elite even with backup QBs, indicating a higher “quarterback-proof” profile.

This is completely useless BTW becuase you are lumping in Sam Darnold into the "without Cousins" group. He was better than Couins ever was in his only year for the Vikings.

You're basically grouping Darnold into the Browning/Mccarthy/Wentz group which is completely wrong.

 

[NoCreativity]

They are roughly 6 ppg different right now, AKA, the difference between getting into the end zone or not.

MIN has leaned early on its rush game and tends to have lower-scoring games with fewer possessions than CIN does. Chase also has quite a bit less target competition than Jefferson does, as a large body of the passing work has gone to Addison and Hockenson. Those two combine for as many targets as Jefferson has; CIN's next 3 pass catchers don't combine for the targets that Chase has, on top of that offense passing a much, much higher amount.

There's not much in the way of helping you if you drafted fantasy players without considering the situation around them. MIN was never going to be a "throw 50 times a game" offense this season, and even then, Jefferson still has very good receiving stats -- he just doesn't find the end zone. Nor does the entire offense, it's not a 'him' problem (it actually looks like Jefferson is slightly better on a per-target/per-reception basis, looking at the stat page, but again, lack of TDs).

I didn't draft him this year, I've had him since 2022 so am well aware of what hes producing now compared to when Couisns and Darnold were around.

 

[NoCreativity]

Jefferson has produced elite numbers with 6 or 7 different QBs by this point.

This season, Chase has ~100 more yards while playing an extra game, and the first few games he did have his top tier starting QB, which Jefferson never had.

You're Bears-Fan-Coping right now.

Cousins, Darnold, Mullins, Mccarthy, Wentz. I must ne forgetting the other 2 because you said 7.

Jefferson isn't producing elite numbers with Wentz or Mccarty, hes like WR15 right now in fantasy. So hes produced elite numbers with exactly 2 guys Cousins, and Darnold, possibly Mullins, I'd have to go look but it would have been a small sample size.

I'm also a Burrow owner and he didn't play "a few games", he got injured in the 2nd quarter of the 2nd game, so Chase had 5 quarters with Burrow this year.

 

[MeowingCows]

I didn't draft him this year, I've had him since 2022 so am well aware of what hes producing now compared to when Couisns and Darnold were around.

I trust you've never said a bad word about McCarthy, then, either now or after drafting? If so, you should've sold Jefferson by now. I know I've seen a lot of people around who were calling him a bust before even playing a game. Or, stuff like this:

Should have given Darnold his contract. Either KOC or the GM have such huge egos they didn't want to look like idiots by drafting a QB that high then not use him.

Seems like a fantasy decision here instead of a football one. Darnold just came off of backbreaking losses last season at a time when MIN is looking to compete.

Cousins, Darnold, Mullins, Mccarthy, Wentz. I must ne forgetting the other 2 because you said 7.

Jefferson isn't producing elite numbers with Wentz or Mccarty, hes like WR15 right now in fantasy. So hes produced elite numbers with exactly 2 guys Cousins, and Darnold, possibly Mullins, I'd have to go look but it would have been a small sample size.

I'm also a Burrow owner and he didn't play "a few games", he got injured in the 2nd quarter of the 2nd game, so Chase had 5 quarters with Burrow this year.

There was a Dobbs and a Hall in there somewhere also, maybe a Mannion?, but any of those may have been the time when Jefferson was hurt. That's just the rough number of starts I know MIN has had since JJ has been around.

That 5 quarters is the best QB play either guy has had all season. Your arguments don't line up with "best WR in the league" being Chase, but that's what happens when you watch fantasy scores instead of actual football games. I tend to view them as pretty interchangeable 1A/1B in terms of skills and ceiling, but I'll gladly concede that Chase has had significantly better QB play throughout his career than Jefferson has. Them putting up similar numbers over time says more about Jefferson...but it's not helping your fantasy team any that MIN's offense can't find paint. That's not a JJ problem, he's fully capable of doing so.

 

[NoCreativity]

I trust you've never said a bad word about McCarthy, then, either now or after drafting? If so, you should've sold Jefferson by now. I know I've seen a lot of people around who were calling him a bust before even playing a game. Or, stuff like this:

Seems like a fantasy decision here instead of a football one. Darnold just came off of backbreaking losses last season at a time when MIN is looking to compete.


There was a Dobbs and a Hall in there somewhere also, maybe a Mannion?, but any of those may have been the time when Jefferson was hurt. That's just the rough number of starts I know MIN has had since JJ has been around.

That 5 quarters is the best QB play either guy has had all season. Your arguments don't line up with "best WR in the league" being Chase, but that's what happens when you watch fantasy scores instead of actual football games. I tend to view them as pretty interchangeable 1A/1B in terms of skills and ceiling, but I'll gladly concede that Chase has had significantly better QB play throughout his career than Jefferson has. Them putting up similar numbers over time says more about Jefferson...but it's not helping your fantasy team any that MIN's offense can't find paint. That's not a JJ problem, he's fully capable of doing so.

Its a keeper league, why would I have just sold Jefferson without even seeing how the season plays out first?

Also, I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers because the Vikings are throwing 31 times a game vs 35 for Cincinnati. That's not a huge difference. Higgins/Brown also have more combined targets than Addison/Hockemson so im not sure why you are making the argument he has way more mouths to feed in Minnesota.

Can you agree that maybe reciever targets are also a byproduct of not only QB play, but the recievers ability to create separation and get open?

 

[cycloneG]

This is completely useless BTW becuase you are lumping in Sam Darnold into the "without Cousins" group. He was better than Couins ever was in his only year for the Vikings.

You're basically grouping Darnold into the Browning/Mccarthy/Wentz group which is completely wrong.

With QB	Games	Yards/Game	TDs/Game	Yards/Rec
Kirk Cousins	54	98.9	0.52	15.1
Sam Darnold (2024)	17	90.2	0.59	14.9

 

[MeowingCows]

Its a keeper league, why would I have just sold Jefferson without even seeing how the season plays out first?

Also, I'm not sure where you're getting your numbers because the Vikings are throwing 31 times a game vs 35 for Cincinnati. That's not a huge difference. Higgins/Brown also have more combined targets than Addison/Hockemson so im not sure why you are making the argument he has way more mouths to feed in Minnesota.

Can you agree that maybe reciever targets are also a byproduct of not only QB play, but the recievers ability to create separation and get open?

You apparently were aware that bad QB play was coming....

I actually watch the games. The ideal state the staff is looking for is around 25 pass attempts a game -- they've hit that mark only 3ish times. In the times they didn't, the gameflow got them down a lot early and they forced Wentz to throw 40+ times. It's not 31 times a game every game -- it's a bunch of 20 throw games mixed with 45 throw games trying to catch back up. They don't want to throw that much. Cincinnati does and practically always has -- that's completely a pass-first offense. Brown gets a lot of passes on heavy screen usage, which MIN does not do -- that's why I chose to compare WRs/TEs to WRs/TEs. There are more downfield mouths to feed in MIN. Target shares are split up very differently.

You really think Jefferson suddenly stopped being good at football? You just told me that he was elite with Darnold, last season. What changed from last season, Jefferson or Darnold?

This is why pro athletes hate fantasy guys in their DMs.

 

[MeowingCows]

Oh, look what I found!


Hmmmm....

 

[Cyclones_R_GR8]

What a catch by Jefferson

 

[Al_4_State]

This version of McCarthy seems worthy of the pick

 

[Al_4_State]

This game is hitting like a drug after the past month of Cyclone and Viking football

 

[pulse]

That roughing call… wow

 

[MeowingCows]

NFL rules on QB safety suck. They just do.

 

[MeowingCows]

JJM wildly bounces back and forth between not throwing when he should and then forcing when he shouldn't. Can't say I'm surprised based on him being pressured two of the three downs or so.

Not mad about that INT. That was the right throw to make, he just missed it. Touch pass there is a completion, similar to what Brady has said a lot this game. Missed the 1-ball there. Earlier overthrow to JJ, missed the 1-ball. Both are probably completed as 2-balls.

 

[Al_4_State]

I’m guessing most of you are watching, but I’m in the field listening on the radio.

PA and Bercich are absolutely on one today.

 

[MeowingCows]

I’m guessing most of you are watching, but I’m in the field listening on the radio.

PA and Bercich are absolutely on one today.

I assume PA is pretty happy with what he's seen from the team today. Offense is doing enough and defense is playing great.

 

[MeowingCows]

Clock management 9/11 inside the 5. ISU goal line offense showed up for MIN, didn't get a TD and left a TON of time.

 

[ISU_Guy]

Them not running the ball three times is going to probably cost him this game.

Guess not. Gutsy call to seal the win

 

[MeowingCows]

Now that's fitting. JJM wins it with the 2-ball.

 

[Marcelason78]

This version of McCarthy seems worthy of the pick

Yes, encouraging game by JJ and the Vikes.