2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

I am going to post a random update because the Torvik projections have moved around somewhat in the past month. I'm not sure what happened on the backside of the model with these changes.

The Cyclones are up to #15, though...



I know everybody is lamenting the loss of two AA-quality guards in Gilbert and Jones. However, there are ample reasons for bullishness on this team given a few points of evidence.

The Cyclones are sixth in the nation in returning minutes amid "high-major" programs on the Torvik site. Yes yes I know a healthy Gilbert and Jones generally were ballers, but college basketball lost a shocking amount of experience and talent this offseason. Not many teams have a returning core as good as Lipsey, Heise, Momcilovic, and Jefferson, which should help compared to more slapdash teams put together this spring.



Early reports on the transfers "in" (especially Nelson and Buchanan) have been good. Early reports on Toure and Batemon are good, too, and Pleta showed up a little late but at 6'11" and not 6'9".

As usual the top of the Big 12 is going to be insanely competitive.



I think finishing in that top-four would be quite the accomplishment. Houston and BYU are national title favorites. Arizona, Iowa St., Kansas, and probably Tech are strong Final Four contenders.

Finish in the top-four
Draw a #3ish seed (#4 at the worst)
Avoid #1s until the second weekend

You have as good a chance as anybody to play in Indianapolis at that point.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Forgot to post this table and it is similar to the one from earlier but returning scoring but...

Iowa State leads the incoming Big 12 in returning minutes.



UCF, WVU, and Baylor are at zero percent. Zero. Nada. Nothing. Zilch. Truly starting over.

Even a few teams expected to be competitive (e.g., Kansas, maybe Oklahoma State) aren't bringing much back. Losing KG and CJ still sucks but what is coming back is still very impressive.

 

[CHim]

I didn't follow up on Kansas after ISU got their transfers but didn't they have a pretty quiet transfer class? Are they getting these rankings based on their incoming freshman class or did I miss something?

 

[Sigmapolis]

I didn't follow up on Kansas after ISU got their transfers but didn't they have a pretty quiet transfer class? Are they getting these rankings based on their incoming freshman class or did I miss something?

https://www.barttorvik.com/rostercast.php?team=Kansas&year=2026



I would say it is something like 50% transfers, 30% returners (mostly Jackson and Bidunga stepping into larger roles), and heavily projecting that Darryn Peterson is going to be a baller from the start.

They have talent but not a ton of P5 experience or experience playing together.

 

[CHim]

https://www.barttorvik.com/rostercast.php?team=Kansas&year=2026

View attachment 152633

I would say it is something like 50% transfers, 30% returners (mostly Jackson and Bidunga stepping into larger roles), and heavily projecting that Darryn Peterson is going to be a baller from the start.

They have talent but not a ton of P5 experience or experience playing together.

But they have Self. So this looks like one of those years they are a different team by the end of the conference season than they are at the start. It looks like a better roster build out than the last couple years.

Do they have a date for the conference schedule release? Looks like it was towards September last year.

 

[Sigmapolis]

But they have Self. So this looks like one of those years they are a different team by the end of the conference season than they are at the start. It looks like a better roster build out than the last couple years.

Do they have a date for the conference schedule release? Looks like it was towards September last year.

Sounds about right -- if Peterson is for real, they will be very dangerous come March.

Dates/times no.

But who is going to play whom in the unbalanced schedule is out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025–26_Big_12_Conference_men's_basketball_season#Regular_season

 

[VeloClone]

...

Early reports on the transfers "in" (especially Nelson and Buchanan) have been good. Early reports on Toure and Batemon are good, too, and Pleta showed up a little late but at 6'11" and not 6'9".

...

I would have been fine with him coming back even a month later if that meant he would have come in at 7'1".

 

[Sigmapolis]

I would have been fine with him coming back even a month later if that meant he would have come in at 7'1".

Let thee who has never added an inch or two to a measurement cast the first stone.

 

[VeloClone]

Sounds about right -- if Peterson is for real, they will be very dangerous come March.

Dates/times no.

But who is going to play whom in the unbalanced schedule is out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025–26_Big_12_Conference_men's_basketball_season#Regular_season

I used to work with a guy named Darren Peterson who played QB at Kirkwood. I think he is too old to play D1 BB now.

 

[cycloneworld]

Baylor has really taken a step back in the portal era. Wonder why? I figured after their national title, they’d be positioned to be in the top quarter of the league indefinitely but have fallen to middle of the pack as of late.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Baylor has really taken a step back in the portal era. Wonder why? I figured after their national title, they’d be positioned to be in the top quarter of the league indefinitely but have fallen to middle of the pack as of late.

I think Tang was a big part of their success, even though I think he's lacking when it comes to head coaching.

 

[Sigmapolis]

I think Tang was a big part of their success, even though I think he's lacking when it comes to head coaching.

Tang was/is a top-level recruiter. He's just not much of a coach.

His results in Manhattan bear this assertion out completely.

He's had talented Wildcat teams but struggled to get them to play coherent basketball.

Him finding the ponies for Drew to train was working well. But now they're both on their own. Yeah, Lennon and McCartney put out some good 70s albums, but it was never the 60s again.

 

[qwerty]

I am going to post a random update because the Torvik projections have moved around somewhat in the past month. I'm not sure what happened on the backside of the model with these changes.

The Cyclones are up to #15, though...

View attachment 152624

I know everybody is lamenting the loss of two AA-quality guards in Gilbert and Jones. However, there are ample reasons for bullishness on this team given a few points of evidence.

The Cyclones are sixth in the nation in returning minutes amid "high-major" programs on the Torvik site. Yes yes I know a healthy Gilbert and Jones generally were ballers, but college basketball lost a shocking amount of experience and talent this offseason. Not many teams have a returning core as good as Lipsey, Heise, Momcilovic, and Jefferson, which should help compared to more slapdash teams put together this spring.

View attachment 152629

Early reports on the transfers "in" (especially Nelson and Buchanan) have been good. Early reports on Toure and Batemon are good, too, and Pleta showed up a little late but at 6'11" and not 6'9".

As usual the top of the Big 12 is going to be insanely competitive.

View attachment 152631

I think finishing in that top-four would be quite the accomplishment. Houston and BYU are national title favorites. Arizona, Iowa St., Kansas, and probably Tech are strong Final Four contenders.

Finish in the top-four
Draw a #3ish seed (#4 at the worst)
Avoid #1s until the second weekend

You have as good a chance as anybody to play in Indianapolis at that point.

F'ck It. Let's just make it a Big 12 Final Four. Houston, Iowa State, BYU and Texas Tech. Leave Arizona and KU out.

 

[Cupped]

There is a strong possibility Houston and BYU maul the conference like... well, two cougars.

I hope Jake Retzlaff takes the entire BUY (Misspelling of BYU intentional) men's BB team out for wine, women and song before he departs.

 

[qwerty]

I hope Jake Retzlaff takes the entire BUY (Misspelling of BYU intentional) men's BB team out for wine, women and song before he departs.

Wine, women and song. Sounds like a soaking opportunity.

 

[cyfan92]

I am going to post a random update because the Torvik projections have moved around somewhat in the past month. I'm not sure what happened on the backside of the model with these changes.

The Cyclones are up to #15, though...

View attachment 152624

I know everybody is lamenting the loss of two AA-quality guards in Gilbert and Jones. However, there are ample reasons for bullishness on this team given a few points of evidence.

The Cyclones are sixth in the nation in returning minutes amid "high-major" programs on the Torvik site. Yes yes I know a healthy Gilbert and Jones generally were ballers, but college basketball lost a shocking amount of experience and talent this offseason. Not many teams have a returning core as good as Lipsey, Heise, Momcilovic, and Jefferson, which should help compared to more slapdash teams put together this spring.

View attachment 152629

Early reports on the transfers "in" (especially Nelson and Buchanan) have been good. Early reports on Toure and Batemon are good, too, and Pleta showed up a little late but at 6'11" and not 6'9".

As usual the top of the Big 12 is going to be insanely competitive.

View attachment 152631

I think finishing in that top-four would be quite the accomplishment. Houston and BYU are national title favorites. Arizona, Iowa St., Kansas, and probably Tech are strong Final Four contenders.

Finish in the top-four
Draw a #3ish seed (#4 at the worst)
Avoid #1s until the second weekend

You have as good a chance as anybody to play in Indianapolis at that point.

TYFYS

 

[NWICY]

Baylor has really taken a step back in the portal era. Wonder why? I figured after their national title, they’d be positioned to be in the top quarter of the league indefinitely but have fallen to middle of the pack as of late.

Im guessing most their NIL money heads to FB, because Texas. Drew and MBB should be the AD bell cow down there, but Texans love their FB.

 

[VeloClone]

Let thee who has never added an inch or two to a measurement cast the first stone shoe.

Fixed for accuracy...