I like the way we match up. The teams that have traditionally given Otz teams the most trouble are teams that play small (4 guards) with two elite ball handlers and shooters all over the court. I think we can create turnovers and get out and run.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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I like the way we match up. The teams that have traditionally given Otz teams the most trouble are teams that play small (4 guards) with two elite ball handlers and shooters all over the court. I think we can create turnovers and get out and run.
Illinois seems like the style of team we struggle with. Not that they are unbeatable but just seems like a tough matchup.
Cyclonepride
Thought Police
I do too - watching Illinois whip the ball around and cause Houston all kinds of problems yesterday I was VERY glad we weren't the 2 in their region! I feel like they would have done the same to us.
Agreed. I'll be rooting for Bama to knock off Michigan. In terms of style of play though, I think we match up better against Michigan than Bama.
We'b probably be 3-4 point favorites over Bama. 3-4 point dogs against Michigan.
I know IL played some good defense, but it was Houston having an off night shooting the ball too. Just a caustic combo. I also have a feeling Houston was feeling the pressure playing in Houston under the brightest of lights. It just wasn't their night, but they're still an awesome team.
They just never quite blended 100% all year.
I think they missed having a big that could post up, and Uzan/Sharp/Flemings never quite figured out how to be better as a whole instead of sum of parts. Almost like Sharp and Uzan couldn't quite figure out their role with Fleming being so ball dominant.
And Cenac has amazing potential, but he was pretty intermittent. Reminds me of THT for us.
It's also crazy that Houston only shot 2 FTs the whole game.
In the games I watched yesterday, the refs really let them play. Hopefully that holds for the games today as well.
Cenac and Uzan combined to go 5-23 for 12 total points yesterday. Like most teams, if one main cog is off, it can be handled, but if two are, it's really tough.
Preventing penetration and inside-out rhythm threes would be my guess as to how they guard the 3 point line effectively
Unless it's Padilla I don't think much body bumping is going to be called on the way to the hoop. That benefitted Iowa State against Kentucky to some degree, Oweh kept flailing to try to sell fouls and few were called. It could make things even tougher on Iowa State down low since Tennessee already has an advantage, but rebounds seem to be the "holding" of basketball, there are fouls somewhere on most rebounds, but if you're not hooking and don't take out somebody's legs you probably won't get called. And Iowa State—specifically Toure and Pleta—is pretty good at walking that line
Hope the ankle allows J-Jeff to play, but I don’t see that happening. Hope I’m wrong.
As for tonight, I think it’s going to be a low scoring rock fight. Limit the put backs (without Jefferson, easier said than done) and turn them over + score in transition and we’ll be sitting pretty, bring on big blue.
As for tonight, I think it’s going to be a low scoring rock fight. Limit the put backs (without Jefferson, easier said than done) and turn them over + score in transition and we’ll be sitting pretty, bring on big blue.
Tennessee has moved ahead
They've skyrocketed up to #4 in Kenpom. Super dangerous team right now.
Things I had completely missed about Illinois:
- they are a slow paced team. Not as slow as Iowa or Houston (that game last night had 58 possessions), but they are ~270 in pace
- they are #1 in opponent FTR, by a mile. Duke is #2 in opponent FTR, with opponents shooting FTs on 23% of possessions. Illinois is #1 at 19.2%, which is a bonkers number.
- They are #8 is fewest turnovers offensively, turning the ball over on 13.1% of their possessions - but they are dead last in forcing turnovers (11.6%)
Just a statistically fascinating team - they are either really good or really bad in almost every category.
I had no idea they played at that slow a pace. That, and not putting teams on the free throw line makes them a terrible matchup for Iowa. I went back and looked at their matchup from earlier this year, which was @ Iowa. Illinois was up 11 at halftime, led by double digits the entire 2nd half include a 17pt lead at one point, then Iowa went on a run to make it somewhat close in the last couple minutes. Illinois is a lot better right now too.
Might be my last post in this thread for this past season.
This thread always peters out come tournament time -- no more projections and just games.
Anyways. It was a "good" year. It was borderline a "great" year. I'll always wonder "what if" regarding the Jefferson injury, though I'm not sure the Cyclones are beating Michigan even with him.
The good news is TJ reloads and takes another shot. One of these years we're going to have a good team with a favorable draw in terms of matchups, locations, and injuries. One of these years.
#7 in the final Torvik rankings isn't too bad now is it?
Been a great five seasons. Here's to many more!
This thread always peters out come tournament time -- no more projections and just games.
Anyways. It was a "good" year. It was borderline a "great" year. I'll always wonder "what if" regarding the Jefferson injury, though I'm not sure the Cyclones are beating Michigan even with him.
The good news is TJ reloads and takes another shot. One of these years we're going to have a good team with a favorable draw in terms of matchups, locations, and injuries. One of these years.
#7 in the final Torvik rankings isn't too bad now is it?
Been a great five seasons. Here's to many more!
Notable that our offense has steadily improved every season.Might be my last post in this thread for this past season.
This thread always peters out come tournament time -- no more projections and just games.
Anyways. It was a "good" year. It was borderline a "great" year. I'll always wonder "what if" regarding the Jefferson injury, though I'm not sure the Cyclones are beating Michigan even with him.
The good news is TJ reloads and takes another shot. One of these years we're going to have a good team with a favorable draw in terms of matchups, locations, and injuries. One of these years.
#7 in the final Torvik rankings isn't too bad now is it?
View attachment 170395
Been a great five seasons. Here's to many more!
View attachment 170396
@Letterkenny, in terms of efficiency yes, but college basketball doesn't have the same average offensive and defensive ratings per 100 season-to-season. The team went from 119.3 per 100 to 123.7 per 100 but dropped in the rankings from #21 to #23, so college basketball just had more scoring last year. This evolution does not surprise me. NIL means more skilled guys and good shooters are staying in college longer rather than heading to the NBA. For example, Milan might have been gone to the NBA after his freshman year in the olden days, but now there's a real possibility he'll play all four years because the "consolation" in college is lucrative.
But yes, the general trend is still there going from "root canal" to "pretty good but not elite." TJ has never had a team outside the top ten in defense, too, so hopefully you can keep the offense in the top 25 and the defense in the top ten in perpetuity -- that kind of program competes for Final Fours every year.
But yes, the general trend is still there going from "root canal" to "pretty good but not elite." TJ has never had a team outside the top ten in defense, too, so hopefully you can keep the offense in the top 25 and the defense in the top ten in perpetuity -- that kind of program competes for Final Fours every year.
Thanks for doing this throughout the season @Sigmapolis (plus occasional updates contributed by others, I don't want to omit anyone, so won't attempt to do an "@")Might be my last post in this thread for this past season.
This thread always peters out come tournament time -- no more projections and just games.
Anyways. It was a "good" year. It was borderline a "great" year. I'll always wonder "what if" regarding the Jefferson injury, though I'm not sure the Cyclones are beating Michigan even with him.
The good news is TJ reloads and takes another shot. One of these years we're going to have a good team with a favorable draw in terms of matchups, locations, and injuries. One of these years.
#7 in the final Torvik rankings isn't too bad now is it?
View attachment 170395
Been a great five seasons. Here's to many more!
View attachment 170396
I couldn't agree more! I look forward to the @Sigmapolis updates after every game, even the poor performances, and I've learned a lot about the analytical perspective of basketball! Thanks to Sig and all who contributed!
But....where TOE?Might be my last post in this thread for this past season.
This thread always peters out come tournament time -- no more projections and just games.
Anyways. It was a "good" year. It was borderline a "great" year. I'll always wonder "what if" regarding the Jefferson injury, though I'm not sure the Cyclones are beating Michigan even with him.
The good news is TJ reloads and takes another shot. One of these years we're going to have a good team with a favorable draw in terms of matchups, locations, and injuries. One of these years.
#7 in the final Torvik rankings isn't too bad now is it?
View attachment 170395
Been a great five seasons. Here's to many more!
View attachment 170396
