2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[bawbie]

Here's the game previews from Torvik:


To start with - Kentucky is #30 but they don't do anything poorly and don't do anything great. Everything is some shade of green on their line.

Three things stand out to me:
- Turnovers - offensive turnover rate is identical, but defensive TO rate is very different with Kentucky not forcing many at all. As usual that turnover battle is key.

- FT Rate - again very similar on offense, but we keep opponents off the line pretty well and they tend to give up an above average # of FTs. Hopefully the refs let them play this game, as that favors us for sure.

- 3-pt% - we take the same # of 3s, and give up similar rates, but on the season we have a distinct edge in 3-pt %. If either team is really hot (60%+) or really cold (20%) it would definitely swing this game.

Torvik thinks ISU by 9 - 78-69. Without Jefferson, I think this is a bit lower scoring game, something like 69-64.

 

[cydnote]

Here's the game previews from Torvik:
View attachment 169416

To start with - Kentucky is #30 but they don't do anything poorly and don't do anything great. Everything is some shade of green on their line.

Three things stand out to me:
- Turnovers - offensive turnover rate is identical, but defensive TO rate is very different with Kentucky not forcing many at all. As usual that turnover battle is key.

- FT Rate - again very similar on offense, but we keep opponents off the line pretty well and they tend to give up an above average # of FTs. Hopefully the refs let them play this game, as that favors us for sure.

- 3-pt% - we take the same # of 3s, and give up similar rates, but on the season we have a distinct edge in 3-pt %. If either team is really hot (60%+) or really cold (20%) it would definitely swing this game.

Torvik thinks ISU by 9 - 78-69. Without Jefferson, I think this is a bit lower scoring game, something like 69-64.

Don't think that info applies--those numbers were built with J Jeff, and we may be without him. You simply can't subtract his numbers and sub in a replacement because the team will be basically playing with a different approach which may not reflect the same numbers over the course of a season.

 

[mb7299]

Now 16th in ken palm offensive rating we qualify as a true final four candidate now as far as history goes.

 

[Sigmapolis]

Torvik page for the 16 teams still alive.

The only teams in the top-15 dead are #5 Florida and #13 Vanderbilt.

Hmm. Almost like these computer models are pretty good at what they do.

 

[NWICY]

Per Torvik ISU is has been playing the best basketball in the country so far in March
View attachment 169152
Granted it is a small sample size, and worth noting that our offense is 'only' 25th in the country in that time period. Removing the first Arizona game from the data brings it up to 14th.

I also noticed Virginia is 12th so far in March, so they are also coming into the tourney hot.

Screw you @Sigmapolis I like this guy's figuring better.
But for real thanks for this thread every yr!

 

[bawbie]

Early look at Tennessee - this is going to be quite the game. They are #1 in offensive rebounding, but turn the ball over a lot and don't shoot many threes or a high percentage.

There's a ton of common opponents (with Tenn result)
Tennessee St (W89-60; 17 TOs)
Syracuse (L60-62; 17 TOs)
Houston (W76-73; 9 TOs)
Kansas (L76-81; 6 TOs)
Miss St (W73-64; 11 TOs)
Kentucky(x2) (L78-80; 12 TOs) (L71-74; 12 TOs)

The fact that Tenn St and Syracuse both turned them over 17 times is really says alot - but that Houston game was tremendous for them.

Torvik has ISU by 2.9; here's the breakdown:

 

[qwerty]

 

[bosco]

Early look at Tennessee - this is going to be quite the game. They are #1 in offensive rebounding, but turn the ball over a lot and don't shoot many threes or a high percentage.

There's a ton of common opponents (with Tenn result)
Tennessee St (W89-60; 17 TOs)
Syracuse (L60-62; 17 TOs)
Houston (W76-73; 9 TOs)
Kansas (L76-81; 6 TOs)
Miss St (W73-64; 11 TOs)
Kentucky(x2) (L78-80; 12 TOs) (L71-74; 12 TOs)

The fact that Tenn St and Syracuse both turned them over 17 times is really says alot - but that Houston game was tremendous for them.

Torvik has ISU by 2.9; here's the breakdown:
View attachment 169511

Really surprises me that they lost to KY twice. The way they play seems similar to us the type of team that would break KY.

 

[chuckd4735]

Really surprises me that they lost to KY twice. The way they play seems similar to us the type of team that would break KY.

They had double digits second half leads in both games, and lost.

 

[SolarGarlic]

Early look at Tennessee - this is going to be quite the game. They are #1 in offensive rebounding, but turn the ball over a lot and don't shoot many threes or a high percentage.

There's a ton of common opponents (with Tenn result)
Tennessee St (W89-60; 17 TOs)
Syracuse (L60-62; 17 TOs)
Houston (W76-73; 9 TOs)
Kansas (L76-81; 6 TOs)
Miss St (W73-64; 11 TOs)
Kentucky(x2) (L78-80; 12 TOs) (L71-74; 12 TOs)

The fact that Tenn St and Syracuse both turned them over 17 times is really says alot - but that Houston game was tremendous for them.

Torvik has ISU by 2.9; here's the breakdown:
View attachment 169511

They have some big dudes and like to get them the ball in the post and high/low. They will have them under the hoop and ready to grab offensive boards. We will have to amp up the intensity on the glass.

Their guards aren't very big or explosive, which I like. Gillespie has a scoring mentality and takes a ton of threes, but only at 34%. He's taken 281 3s. For reference, Milan has taken 272.

Ament is the lottery pick with loads of talent, but he didn't look great against Virginia. He has a nagging injury I believe, and he's loose with the ball. I think we may be able to frustrate him.

Their big Estrella is skilled in the post and has been playing well.

As always, turning them over is the biggest key. They have shown that it's an issue for them. That gets us easy buckets and keeps them from their biggest strength of offensive rebounding.

They will pack it in on defense and keep us out of the paint. They don't force a lot of turnovers. It will be important that Lipsey keeps shooting well because they won't let him get into the lane like Kentucky did. I'm an optimist, but I think this is a good matchup for us with the way we're playing right now.

 

[CloniesForLife]

Early look at Tennessee - this is going to be quite the game. They are #1 in offensive rebounding, but turn the ball over a lot and don't shoot many threes or a high percentage.

There's a ton of common opponents (with Tenn result)
Tennessee St (W89-60; 17 TOs)
Syracuse (L60-62; 17 TOs)
Houston (W76-73; 9 TOs)
Kansas (L76-81; 6 TOs)
Miss St (W73-64; 11 TOs)
Kentucky(x2) (L78-80; 12 TOs) (L71-74; 12 TOs)

The fact that Tenn St and Syracuse both turned them over 17 times is really says alot - but that Houston game was tremendous for them.

Torvik has ISU by 2.9; here's the breakdown:
View attachment 169511

Can't offensive rebound if you can't even get a shot up

 

[Cyhig]

Early look at Tennessee - this is going to be quite the game. They are #1 in offensive rebounding, but turn the ball over a lot and don't shoot many threes or a high percentage.

There's a ton of common opponents (with Tenn result)
Tennessee St (W89-60; 17 TOs)
Syracuse (L60-62; 17 TOs)
Houston (W76-73; 9 TOs)
Kansas (L76-81; 6 TOs)
Miss St (W73-64; 11 TOs)
Kentucky(x2) (L78-80; 12 TOs) (L71-74; 12 TOs)

The fact that Tenn St and Syracuse both turned them over 17 times is really says alot - but that Houston game was tremendous for them.

Torvik has ISU by 2.9; here's the breakdown:
View attachment 169511

I like the matchup. They do not shoot the ball very well and are prone to turn the ball over. Just need to control the boards.

Hopefully we can generate live ball turnovers to get easy transition points before the Vols can set up their defense. I'm not sure if either team makes it to 70 points

 

[not-the-manager]

As someone who, if forced to, would've predicted a loss to Kentucky, I will take my chances with any Otz team against any opponent that turns it over and can't shoot the 3. Regarding Tennessee's offensive rebounding, basic analytics tells me Iowa State will just have to have solid post defense, as even if Tennessee is getting second chances they aren't necessarily going to knock down jump shots. And yes, obviously goal #1 is to not let them get second chances in the first place

 

[KennyPratt42]

I tend to look at Torvic games scores a lot to see how teams are trending and if teams tend to play better or worse against certain types of teams. It’s not a perfect stat, but does a decent job distilling down how a team performed in a game.

Iowa St now has 22 games with a game score of 96 or higher. For me a 99 or 100 for a top team means you played about was well as you can for a significant portion of the game and 96-98 means means you likely played about as well as you can for a decent percentage of the game, but might have had an average or bad stretch. 90-95 means you played well, but weren’t at your very best for the game as a whole.

By my quick count. Duke has 26, Arizona and Michigan each have 24, Florida has 22, Purdue has 21, Houston has 20, Illinois has 20, and UConn has 19. The thing that separates a team like Arizona is that their floor is so high even compared to a team like Duke, their low score of the season is an 85.

 

[not-the-manager]

I tend to look at Torvic games scores a lot to see how teams are trending and if teams tend to play better or worse against certain types of teams. It’s not a perfect stat, but does a decent job distilling down how a team performed in a game.

Iowa St now has 22 games with a game score of 96 or higher. For me a 99 or 100 for a top team means you played about was well as you can for a significant portion of the game and 96-98 means means you likely played about as well as you can for a decent percentage of the game, but might have had an average or bad stretch. 90-95 means you played well, but weren’t at your very best for the game as a whole.

By my quick count. Duke has 26, Arizona and Michigan each have 24, Florida has 22, Purdue has 21, Houston has 20, Illinois has 20, and UConn has 19. The thing that separates a team like Arizona is that their floor is so high even compared to a team like Duke, their low score of the season is an 85.

Speaking of, for the people who said Friday (98) was just the result of Tennessee State being horrible, Iowa State's game score yesterday only dropped to a 97, against much stiffer competition and with a horrendous first half offense

 

[alexssdean12]

I tend to look at Torvic games scores a lot to see how teams are trending and if teams tend to play better or worse against certain types of teams. It’s not a perfect stat, but does a decent job distilling down how a team performed in a game.

Iowa St now has 22 games with a game score of 96 or higher. For me a 99 or 100 for a top team means you played about was well as you can for a significant portion of the game and 96-98 means means you likely played about as well as you can for a decent percentage of the game, but might have had an average or bad stretch. 90-95 means you played well, but weren’t at your very best for the game as a whole.

By my quick count. Duke has 26, Arizona and Michigan each have 24, Florida has 22, Purdue has 21, Houston has 20, Illinois has 20, and UConn has 19. The thing that separates a team like Arizona is that their floor is so high even compared to a team like Duke, their low score of the season is an 85.

Tennessee has 16 games of 96 or higher

 

[pourcyne]

NYT's The Athletic has an interesting take and graphics with % on possible outcomes...I don't see anywhere to gift the article, so guessing it might not have a paywall.

Men's 2026 March Madness NCAA tournament forecast bracket

From Selection Sunday to the Championship, track every team's odds of advancing through each round of the Men's NCAA Tournament.

www.nytimes.com

 

[not-the-manager]

NYT's The Athletic has an interesting take and graphics with % on possible outcomes...I don't see anywhere to gift the article, so guessing it might not have a paywall.

Men's 2026 March Madness NCAA tournament forecast bracket

From Selection Sunday to the Championship, track every team's odds of advancing through each round of the Men's NCAA Tournament.

www.nytimes.com

Interesting, because there’s a pretty big disparity between 54% and 70%

 

[Jacktronic]

I don't need any nerd mathematics to know we're gonna beat the piss out of em.

 

[pourcyne]

I don't need any nerd mathematics to know we're gonna beat the piss out of em.

​