Top 10 KenPom teams with offense ranked outside of the top 15 are 0/17 to make the Final Four in the last 5 tournaments. *sigh* I guess we'll have to be the ones to break the streak.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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I saw that this afternoon. Iowa State certainly has some good underlying metrics, but there's also some worrying historical data working against them. I'm just trying to tell myself every season is different, and with all the changes in college athletics it's a little hard to compare this season to even four years ago
Idk… they had 2 or 3 clunkers that really tanked the offensive metrics.
I believe we're ranked 21st which isn't that far off from any of the arbitrary numbers people use for these stats.
I love our Cyclones. I think they've got a real shot at a very deep run.
But the combination of elite offense and elite defense smiles on three programs.
Duke
Michigan
Arizona
Florida is a #1 seed sure but sort of the runt of the litter compared to the other three.
Dang good chance the national champion is one of those three.
But the combination of elite offense and elite defense smiles on three programs.
Duke
Michigan
Arizona
Florida is a #1 seed sure but sort of the runt of the litter compared to the other three.
Dang good chance the national champion is one of those three.
Per Torvik ISU is has been playing the best basketball in the country so far in March
Granted it is a small sample size, and worth noting that our offense is 'only' 25th in the country in that time period. Removing the first Arizona game from the data brings it up to 14th.
I also noticed Virginia is 12th so far in March, so they are also coming into the tourney hot.
Granted it is a small sample size, and worth noting that our offense is 'only' 25th in the country in that time period. Removing the first Arizona game from the data brings it up to 14th.
I also noticed Virginia is 12th so far in March, so they are also coming into the tourney hot.
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A fun take to read. He values kill shots among other things
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Michigan now is different than the team that earned that rating. Especially if Lendeborg's ankle is an issue.
Same with Duke and their missing guard.
They're still really good and could put it together, just not quite as effective (eye ball...not sure what their ratings are post-injuries).
Also important to remember that a lot of those stats use end-of-season numbers (post-tournament). Numbers that are likely to improve for the champion, who probably had to play well against several top 20 teams to get there.
If Iowa State were to win the national championship by beating Michigan, Arizona, and whoever from the other side of the bracket, I'd bet that our offensive numbers would have improved enough to qualify under most or all of those arbitrary lines people draw.
I had thought most of the folks doing this are using pre-tourney metrics. Typically folks are always looking for a "gotcha" as if the number-nerds aren't thinking of this stuff...
And in almost any application, any predictive metric/cutover is arbitrary.
Regardless of the cutoffs, our offense can't take a step back (at all) if we're going to make a deep run. It can't have even 1 clunker of a game.
"Luck" factor. When you play against high level competition you can play really well but still lose because somethings don't fall your way. I believe things tend to even out over a long enough timeline. So if we had some bad breaks we might be due to some "good" luck as long as we keep our level of play at high level.
Even we sometimes forget how ridiculously good the Big 12 - especially the top of the Big 12 - really is.
That's definitely my worry. We looked good in KC, but we're always susceptible to a slow paced, halfcourt game, where Momcilovic doesn't handle physicality, the ball stops moving, and Jefferson is forcing. It's only a matter of time. I do think Lipsey and Toure shooting well changes that equation, and we'll need that. I also liked Buchanan being more aggressive with the ball in his hands and not just standing at the top of the key.
I was looking at ISU's path today and realized that I think Virginia is the only top 4 seed that I didn't see play this year at all. Bennett had been there so long I just expect one of his teams, but this one is entirely new.
They started the season in the mid-30s analytically, and then rose to top 10 in the middle of the season before settling into the mid-teens.
They are 8-4 against Q1 including 3 Q1A wins - @SMU, @Louisville and @NC State, all within a 2 week span in early January. They picked up 2 Q1B wins in the ACC tourney.
They have 1 Q2 loss - to Butler at a neutral site back around Thanksgiving.
They started the season in the mid-30s analytically, and then rose to top 10 in the middle of the season before settling into the mid-teens.
They are 8-4 against Q1 including 3 Q1A wins - @SMU, @Louisville and @NC State, all within a 2 week span in early January. They picked up 2 Q1B wins in the ACC tourney.
They have 1 Q2 loss - to Butler at a neutral site back around Thanksgiving.
I don't think either Santa Clara or Kentucky fits that mold, but both Virginia and Tennessee definitely do.
But to me, the matchup really doesn't matter much for ISU, it's all about whether they bring the energy, are aggressive, get lose balls / turnovers / offensive boards. This has been true since TJ took over, the games they lose they almost always look a step slow - except dog fights against great teams like Houston or Arizona.
The two games this year against TTU are prime examples. The game in Ames, we were slow to everything, they got open looks, extra passes, etc. The game in KC was just the opposite and we had them done and buried by halftime.
This has also been true of all of the tourney losses under TJ, I think.
They brought the energy and intensity to all 3 games in KC - if they can figure out how to bring it for 3 straight games, they can setup a dog fight with Michigan for a final four spot.
I saw them against Duke and was impressed.
Imo they seemed to be about on the same level athletically as ISU. Not a lot of 'bounce' but synergy in the group.
you are exactly right.
The energy and intensity drive everything defensively and on the Boards.
They are the engine that makes EVERYTHING happen downhill from there.
It’s a must.
Especially in the first half against Top competition, because you can’t be down 10+ to most of these teams in the first half and expect to win.
This and of course Free Throw Shooting are important.
This team is built for these 4 team / 2 day tournaments.
At this point it’s about unleashing what they have from the opening tip off.
