The committee has shifted focus more to WAB, which is results focused. They have stated that multiple times and the first reveal showed that.
2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Im sure they watched that game last night and were thoroughly entertained by the extreme high quality of play from both teams
There is no way cyclones aren't in the top 6 overall seeds the game was national championship level!
Is loosing that game close better than winning in terms of the ncaas? Feels like that effort locks the Clones in at a 2 seed, and I don't feel like a win and winning the big 12 tournament would have been enough to move them to a 1 seed. 4 games in 4 day against good teams is brutal. Houston is very physical, and Lipsey and Jefferson already are banged up.
We're back over 32 in Kenpom. I don't think we've been that high since the loss to KU.
2 or 3, with Illinois specifically, doesn’t matter much if the both end up in midwest. Would be sweet 16 in Chicago (illinois home game). I want ISU 2 in Midwest, and illinois banished to somewhere else
I Think that makes sense for the bubble but maybe not the top seed lines. Dan gravity even said that it was especially important when picking the teams in the field. You don't happen to have the WAB rankings from Feb 19th so you?
Torvik has WAB but it doesn't match the NCAA exactly. If you go back to Feb 19, ISU was 10 and Florida was 13.
If you went strictly by WAB today
Michigan
Duke
Arizona
Houston
Florida
UConn
Virginia
Purdue
Iowa State
Michigan State
Nebraska
Vanderbilt
Kansas
Alabama
Gonzaga
Illinois
We’ll very likely either by the 2 in the East (Duke) or 2 in the Midwest (Michigan). Mainly depends on where they place us, Houston, and UConn on the s-curve. If UConn is 5 they’ll have to go to the South/Midwest/West (assuming Duke is #1 overall), most other scenarios I’d guess we go to the Midwest, UConn goes to the East, and Houston goes to the South due to location.
At this point thinking 2 of the Big 10 teams (outside Michigan) will be ahead of us is just paranoia.
At this point thinking 2 of the Big 10 teams (outside Michigan) will be ahead of us is just paranoia.
I think the 2 in the MW is going to require some things to go our way. The likeliest scenarios imo is 2 in the East, then 3 in the MW, then 2 in the MW
Overall, that seems like solid assessment, as far as seeding & placement.
If Houston can beat Arizona today, that ought to lift UH above UConn, making a more natural regional placement. It probably wouldn't matter if UConn wins Big East tournament.
(True seeds in parentheses) [brackets designate 1 seed order]
[1] EAST
1 Duke (1)
2 UConn (6)
[4] SOUTH
1 Florida (4)
2 Houston (5)
[2] MIDWEST
1 Michigan (2)
2 Iowa State (8)
[3] WEST
1 Arizona (3)
2 Big Ten's 2 seed (7)
Only hurdle I see is the regional balance, which in this scenario would have MW & West already 3 higher total than East, with South 9 higher. (That's partly why I designate ISU as 8 and Big Ten as 7). Even so, it's manageable to distribute the 3's and 4's accordingly. (Goal is no more than 6 difference).
How exactly do you see us dropping to a 3? Because 2 of Michigan St, Illinois, and Purdue would need to be ahead of us for us to drop to 9 on the s-curve. I can see a world where the committee really likes one of them and over ranks them ahead of us, but you think doing that with 2 is likely.
And the Big 10 is going to have 5 teams in the top 16 likely so they will have 2 in the same region so they aren’t artificially dropping us to a 3 to divide the Big 10 teams in the four regions. They will put Michigan in the MW, one of them as a 2 in any of the other regions, then 3 more teams that are 3 or 4 seeds that will fill the other two regions and one doubling up (either a 3 in the ME with Michigan or a 4 in the same region as the 2 seed).
I don't think it happens, but don't ignore Virginia. Compare their resume with UConn.
Congrats on your 1 seed Florida! The seeds held, and your reward is an Elite 8 game against Houston, in Houston
I think it would be the first time a 2 slotted in its own city, although there have been occasions when the 2 was much closer geographically than the 1.
2012 is an example: (1) North Carolina & (2) KU in St. Louis.
Several others have occurred in West region, maybe even multiple since the 2012 tournament (Can't recall off top of my head).
That's your Cyclone Pessimism talking...understandable after previous years.
The first tourney game was a 100 game score on Torvik and by far the best defensive game (adjusted efficiency) of the season.
The second game was a 99 game score and just edged Purdue for the second best defense game
Last night was a 98 game score (in a loss!) and edged out Alcorn for the best offensive game of the year.
The 98 game score means we would have bested 98% of teams with the stats we had - and that seems too low for that game! There are only a handful of team playing their best that beat us in that game.
The second game was a 99 game score and just edged Purdue for the second best defense game
Last night was a 98 game score (in a loss!) and edged out Alcorn for the best offensive game of the year.
The 98 game score means we would have bested 98% of teams with the stats we had - and that seems too low for that game! There are only a handful of team playing their best that beat us in that game.
There are plenty of other things to talk about, but I think lost in the shuffle is how good Iowa State’s offense was. Some of that was Momcilovic going nuts, but the start of the game wasn’t just a bunch of shots falling. I think I’ve decided last night was the best I’ve seen an Otz team play
It’s not so much dropping. Not that I think it’s likely, but I could see, if the committee had us behind Illinois and Michigan State going into yesterday, as Bracket Matrix did, they don’t elevate us above those two because of a loss. That’s how I see us as a 3 in the MW.
Very true, but I think Momcilovic only made one 3 before the spree at the end of the first half. I thought they were still getting quality looks from the get-go. The intentionality of the ball movement, passing, and driving was spectacular. And they looked night and day in terms of knowing the only ways they could successfully attack Arizona’s defense. In Tucson they played right into Arizona’s hands a lot
