2025-2026 MBB computer projections thread

[SolterraCyclone]

Hopefully we have done enough to get the Midwest as a 2. Got to think we fall ahead of Michigan State and Illinois after yesterday. Put UConn in the East, Houston in the South, and Iowa State in the Midwest. Depending on what Purdue does, you could potentially have all Big Ten teams as 3 seeds

I have the S-Curve right now as:

Duke
Michigan
Arizona
Florida
Uconn
Houston
Michigan State
ISU
Illinois
Purdue
Gonzaga
Virginia

In order for ISU to get a 2 in the MW as I see it, Michigan or Arizona need to supplant Duke as overall number 1 OR Houston surpasses UConn. The latter is more likely to me, as Houston could beat AZ or St John’s could beat UConn.

If Duke, UM, Az, and UConn all win their conference tourneys though I think we’ll be 3 in the MW.

 

[CPG4ISU]

Iowa State

8-6

10-0

2-0

7-0

Illinois

7-7

5-0

7-0

5-0

Michigan State

8-5

6-1

7-0

4-0

Some things really seem to be falling ISU's way. Obviously the win yesterday helps, but getting OKST back to a quad 1 was huge. Michigan State also picked up a quad 2 loss with Minnesota falling below 75 in NET.

If someone was blindly looking at these metrics, I think ISU would be ahead of BOTH Illinois and Michigan State.

Current NET as of Friday morning

Iowa State

8-7

10-0

2-0

7-0

Illinois

7-8

5-0

7-0

5-0

Michigan State

9-6

5-1

7-0

4-0

One would think ISU is pretty clearly ahead of Illinois at this rate. Ahead in Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, with less losses

Interesting note, one of Michigan State's Quad 2 wins got bumped to a Quad 1 over night. They now have the Quad 1 win advantage, but with a bad loss. Will be interesting to see how the committee views good wins vs bad losses.

 

[Clonedogg]

Hopefully we have done enough to get the Midwest as a 2. Got to think we fall ahead of Michigan State and Illinois after yesterday. Put UConn in the East, Houston in the South, and Iowa State in the Midwest. Depending on what Purdue does, you could potentially have all Big Ten teams as 3 seeds

Who's the West two seed if those 3 B1G teams are three seeds? Is Nebraska a three or four seed? So many questions...

 

[SolterraCyclone]

Who's the West two seed if those 3 B1G teams are three seeds? Is Nebraska a three or four seed? So many questions...

Nebraska has to be a 4 at this point right? They’re down to 14 on KenPom and leaking oil.

 

[ChickenNuggetMan]

Our game scored for the Big 12 Tournament were 100, 99, and 98 last night.

Correct me if I’m wrong but a game score of 98 means you’d beat 98% of teams right? Arizona is just in that top 2%.

If we keep playing like this, it’s going to be fun.

 

[alexssdean12]

How Iowa State matches up against the potential 2 seeds:

I think Houston has locked up the 2 seed and its down to these four teams for the final three spots.

Arguments against each team

Illinois - last in resume metrics and Q1 & Q2 wins
UConn - a Q2 AND Q3 loss but I believe that's factored into resume rankings and they are still the best somehow *they are still playing so their numbers and fluctuate before Sunday
Michigan State - last in predictive rankings and a Q2 loss

Iowa State is not the worst in any metric and we have the best predictive metrics and tied for most Q1/Q2 wins. I really don't see how Iowa State wouldn't get a 2 seed... maybe SOS but why use resume rankings if thats the case

 

[clone52]

Hopefully we have done enough to get the Midwest as a 2. Got to think we fall ahead of Michigan State and Illinois after yesterday. Put UConn in the East, Houston in the South, and Iowa State in the Midwest. Depending on what Purdue does, you could potentially have all Big Ten teams as 3 seeds

Just gotta hope the committee isn't stupid and put UConn at 5. Then they couldn't go with a #1 Duke

 

[clone52]

I have the S-Curve right now as:

Duke
Michigan
Arizona
Florida
Uconn
Houston
Michigan State
ISU
Illinois
Purdue
Gonzaga
Virginia

In order for ISU to get a 2 in the MW as I see it, Michigan or Arizona need to supplant Duke as overall number 1 OR Houston surpasses UConn. The latter is more likely to me, as Houston could beat AZ or St John’s could beat UConn.

If Duke, UM, Az, and UConn all win their conference tourneys though I think we’ll be 3 in the MW.

Here is my s curve
Duke
Michigan
Arizona
Florida
Houston (neck and neck with Florida)
UConn
Iowa State
Purdue
MSU
Virginia
Illinois
Gonzaga
Vandy
Alabama
Nebraska
Arkansas

 

[bosco]

The committee won't take it into account but given UConn's weak schedule comparatively their bad losses have to carry more weight.

 

[isufbcurt]

I don't get the love for UCONN I think it'll be

5. Houston
6. ISU
7.UCONN
8 who cares

The committee was high on us at the reveal and EVERYONE was watching that game last night. And that was easily one of the BEST bb games all season. Two heavyweights going blow for blow, Rocky vs Creed.

 

[Cyburbbalz]

Nebraska has to be a 4 at this point right? They’re down to 14 on KenPom and leaking oil.

And 2 losses to purdue

 

[Cyclonepride]

Agreed on both points, but I bet after today we will be pretty comfortably ahead of Illinois

Yeah, since the committee put us at 4 overall, we've gone 4-4 with two losses to a definite 1 seed and a blowout win over a probable 4. I think Illinois has gone 2-3 in that time frame and started at 8, so you'd have to be smoking something to think they'd gain 5 spots on us from that.

 

[Cyburbbalz]

I don't get the love for UCONN I think it'll be

5. Houston
6. ISU
7.UCONN
8 who cares

The committee was high on us at the reveal and EVERYONE was watching that game last night. And that was easily one of the BEST bb games all season. To heavyweights going blow for blow, Rocky vs Creed.

Totally agree

 

[every_yard]

Reminder that the committee doesn’t automatically match up 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, etc. I believe the only true rule is that they won’t put the top 1 seed and top 2 seed in the same region.

 

[clone52]

The committee won't take it into account but given UConn's weak schedule comparatively their bad losses have to carry more weight.

Really depends on if they prefer predictive metrics or results metrics. Predictive metrics have them as a 3 seed

 

[1UNI2ISU]

I think the mistake we make this time of year is that we, as casual idiots, look way harder into resumes than the actual committee does and that's why we get wonky decisions at times.

 

[Cyclonepride]

I don't get the love for UCONN I think it'll be

5. Houston
6. ISU
7.UCONN
8 who cares

The committee was high on us at the reveal and EVERYONE was watching that game last night. And that was easily one of the BEST bb games all season. To heavyweights going blow for blow, Rocky vs Creed.

I agree, when you look at UConn with a fresh set of eyes, I think we've proven ourselves more than they have. Their conference sucks, so all their hype is from a few early season wins and mowing through a really bad conference.

 

[clone52]

Yeah, since the committee put us at 4 overall, we've gone 4-4 with two losses to a definite 1 seed and a blowout win over a probable 4. I think Illinois has gone 2-3 in that time frame and started at 8, so you'd have to be smoking something to think they'd gain 5 spots on us from that.

I wish I had paid more attention to the ratings when the reveal happened to see if they valued predictive metrics or results.

 

[every_yard]

I agree, when you look at UConn with a fresh set of eyes, I think we've proven ourselves more than they have. Their conference sucks, so all their hype is from a few early season wins and mowing through a really bad conference.

The more I look at it, the more I think we are also ahead of UCONN. They have 2 losses that are worse than any of our losses. We are ahead of them in NET, but they are ahead of us in WAB.

For reference, losing at Marquette is the equivalent of a loss at K-State. Losing at home to Creighton is the equivalent of losing at home to Colorado.

 

[clone52]

Reminder that the committee doesn’t automatically match up 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, etc. I believe the only true rule is that they won’t put the top 1 seed and top 2 seed in the same region.

Correct, and they try to balance the brackets. Can't have 1 6 9 and 13 along with 4 5 12 16

They want the sum of those seed lines to be withing 6. That example is 29 and 37